Paul Cébille is Senior Studies Officer at Ifop.
FIGAROVOX. - In the latest Ifop-Fiducial survey for
Le Figaro
and
LCI, the dynamic is favorable to Valérie Pécresse, while Marine Le Pen (the two candidates are at 17%) and Eric Zemmour (13%) fall in the polls?
Paul CÉBILLE. -
This survey began just after the Congress of Republicans, we can perceive a small well-known effect which is that of the legitimation of a candidate who has just been appointed. Before a candidate is nominated by his party, there is a period of uncertainty as to who is more legitimate and who can reduce voting intentions. From now on, the legitimacy is fully attributed to Valérie Pécresse and this allows a slight increase in opinion studies.
Regarding the dynamics of Marine Le Pen, it is possible that Valérie Pécresse has attracted part of the frontist electorate thanks to this renewed legitimation.
But at this point, there is not necessarily a connection between the two.
Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour, both suffer from a major rejection which dismisses part of the opinion, which does not suffer from Valérie Pécresse.
However, let us note that the candidate of the National Rally has a less bad image than Eric Zemmour.
This can play on the margins because it seems closer to the concerns of the French, and also less radical.
The new stature that Eric Zemmour had during the meeting was able to influence public opinion.
Paul Cebille
After the Villepinte meeting, can we imagine Eric Zemmour regaining momentum in the next few days?
The survey does not yet take into account the Villepinte effect. Note also that Eric Zemmour has already benefited from a considerable dynamic that lasted until November. Now that he has had a large enough forum to speak, voters are starting to understand his project and his stature. This can pose a problem for him because he would be considered too extreme by a part of the population and his presidential stature is still questioned. It is still quite high, around 13% in our survey.
The future will depend on the effects of appeals concerning those who have rallied to his candidacy or the announcement of new proposals.
All this will reveal who Eric Zemmour really is, now an official candidate and no longer just the "polemicist" who would consider a candidate project.
The new stature he acquired during the meeting may have influenced public opinion.
Emmanuel Macron remains at 25%, thus widening the gap with his competitors. How do you explain it?
Emmanuel Macron, is an outgoing president who enjoys a rather good image.
It remains to be put into perspective because it only amounts to 40%, which is already more than its predecessors.
He therefore manages to keep a good part of the electorate of 2017. His electorate represents 3/4 of those who associate him with a good image, which is quite rare and explains the good behavior of the candidate.
Valérie Pécresse enjoys a positive image on security subjects since they were omnipresent during the LR debates.
Paul Cebille
In addition, with the candidacy of Eric Zemmour and Marine Le Pen, the LR candidates have positioned themselves much more to the right with themes different from those of 2017, more secure and more regal. Valérie Pécresse enjoys a positive image on security subjects since they were omnipresent during the LR debates. And obviously, this is not the same positioning as Emmanuel Macron. The LR candidate appears more to the right.
The president does not really need to go on certain themes to attract a center-right electorate who would be attentive to security issues.
Reform and employment issues may suffice.
It is perhaps not on these subjects that he will bet, while Valérie Pécresse will need these themes to stand out.
She has an important breeding ground to her right which forces her to position herself on it in order to exist.