Presidential 2022: Valérie Pécresse would beat Emmanuel Macron in the second round, according to a poll

Real breakthrough or simple flash in the pan, Valérie Pécresse, just invested by the Republicans at the end of their Congress, benefits in any case from an undeniable "primary effect".

According to an Elabe * survey for L'Express and BFMTV, the 2022 presidential candidate is currently winning against outgoing President Emmanuel Macron.

In this survey carried out after her appointment and the meetings of the far-right polemicist Éric Zemmour and the Insoumis Jean-Luc Mélenchon on Sunday, the president of the Île-de-France region gained 11 points compared to the previous study of this institute carried out on 23 and 24 November, and rose to 20% of voting intentions in the first round.

The day before, an Ifop-Fiducial poll already credited the candidate with 17%.

Macron, first choice of young people and executives

Emmanuel Macron is for his part credited with 23% of voting intentions, down two points.

In the event of a second round between these two candidates, the outgoing president is given defeated, at 48% against 52% for Valérie Pécresse.

If Emmanuel Macron is the first choice of 18-24 year olds (37%) and executives (30%), Valérie Pécresse enjoys more clear support from the voters of François Fillon (58%) and is progressing particularly among retirees (29 %).

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"This strong increase is however to be qualified by the fact that only half of the potential voters of Valérie Pécresse are now certain of their choice (54%)", notes the polling institute.

The left suffers from its fragmentation

In the first round, these two candidates are well ahead of Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour.

Credited with 15% of the voting intentions, the RN candidate fell 5 points and came dangerously close to the far-right polemicist up slightly by 1 point and who now rose to 14% after her meeting punctuated by violence in Villepinte.

On the left, the main candidates seem to suffer "from the strong fragmentation of left-wing candidates".

They are all down by one point and below 10%: Jean-Luc Mélenchon is given at 8%, the ecologist Yannick Jadot at 7%, the socialist Anne Hidalgo at 3%.

Follow Arnaud Montebourg (2%), Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (2%, -1), Jean Lassale (2%, + 1), Philippe Poutou (2%), Fabien Roussel (1%) and Nathalie Arthaud (1%) .

“At 4 months before the poll, 44% of voters who intend to vote could change their minds between now and the election.

Conversely, 56% of them say they are certain of their choice ”, nuance Elabe.

* Voting intentions do not constitute a forecast of the outcome of the ballot.

They give an indication of the balance of power and dynamics on the day of the survey.

** Survey carried out on the Internet on December 6 and 7, 2021, with a sample of 1,474 people representative of residents of mainland France aged 18 and over, including 1,354 registered on the electoral roll, according to the quota method.

Margin of error between 1.2 and 3.1 percentage points.