The situation in the morning: How do the traffic lights react if there is a war in Ukraine?

The new interior minister sees right-wing extremism as the greatest threat

Today is likely to be the last full day that

German Chancellor. Yes, that is unusual after 16 years in power, but it is like this: The new traffic light government under

is to be elected to office tomorrow, today it will be officially sealed with the signing of the coalition agreement -

(with comparatively »only« 86 percent). The ministers are also all known now, the SPD was the last to announce their names yesterday: including

as health

minister

. The current Minister of Justice and Family Affairs,

, will surprisingly be the new Minister of Defense

.

The

is to lead a woman for the first time: the Hessian SPD leader Nancy Faeser. She wants to dedicate herself above all to the fight against

, in her words the "greatest threat that our free democratic basic order currently has". Faeser once received right-wing extremist threatening letters with the signature »NSU 2.0« and worked on an investigative committee to investigate the NSU murders; so she knows what she is talking about. And in fact right-wing extremist activities have recently not only increased within German security authorities and in the Bundeswehr - even in the radicalized corona denial milieu, the willingness to use violence is currently increasing massively.

The complete list of

of the Scholz cabinet can be found here.

And in the following article you can read what happened behind the scenes at the SPD on the weekend before Scholz finally managed to get through to Lauterbach - probably the first minister to take office because he was simply too popular to be ignored.

The question now is whether Lauterbach can remain a pop star as Minister of Health or will soon be disenchanted:

• Scholz took his party by surprise with the names Lauterbach and Faeser

Biden wants to warn Putin of an attack on Ukraine

Even before the new government is in office, it is faced with a foreign policy threat: The serious

. According to the US government, it could be as early as the beginning of next year: Around 70,000 Russian soldiers are already stationed near the Ukrainian border, and another 100,000 could be added in the next few months. According to the "Financial Times", NATO and EU allies now share the American concern after the US made intelligence material available in unusual detail. If you add the escalation in Russian rhetoric of recent months to the massive troop movements, you have to be concerned: In July Putin described in an elongated essay why, in his eyes, Ukraine historically belonged to Russia, and at the same time covered it with threats.

Today

wants to

warn

his Russian counterpart

in a

directly about an attack. He will presumably threaten him with massive economic sanctions - also against Putin's immediate environment - in the event that Russia should start a war. But to be clear: Nobody knows whether Russia is really planning an invasion, the Russian government has repeatedly denied it. She is now demanding guarantees from NATO that there will be no expansion to the east and that US arms deliveries to Ukraine will come to an end.

Our Moscow correspondent Christian Esch sees Russia's threatening behavior above all anger that all attempts so far have failed to dissuade Ukraine from its way to the west:

Moscow behaves

says Esch: “It is quite possible that the Kremlin has not yet decided to use force.

But he thinks his previous means are exhausted and wants to supplement them with the unspoken threat of invasion.

A little 'tension', in other words, scare-mongering works wonders, that's how you have to understand Putin's words. ”But Esch sees the danger that Putin will end up using violence if his threats don't work.

The effects of such a war on Europe would be dramatic.

• Russian troops near the border: is Putin planning to invade Ukraine?

Which foreign policy prevails in the traffic light?

For

, the conflict over Ukraine can quickly turn into an

: How will the new federal government react if the threat of war in Europe is in the room?

It is to be assumed and to be hoped that it will remain closely at the side of its European and American allies.

But a lot has yet to show itself in reality.

The relationship with Putin will be difficult enough for the traffic light: The

contains clear words, it announces a

. He promises support for Ukraine and a clear stance towards Russia - here he bears more the signature of the Greens. But how will Olaf Scholz behave, who comes from a party that traditionally relies on understanding for Russia? He, too, may soon have to show whether he really has the foreign policy skills that citizens have always imputed to him in surveys.

A conflict could soon also emerge in dealing with another country that is important for Germany:

. The coalition agreement emphasizes the "system rivalry" with Germany's most important trading partner and explicitly addresses human rights in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, as well as the status of Taiwan. The Chinese embassy in Berlin has already responded to a first critical interview with the future Foreign Minister Baerbock with a warning statement.

Here, too, there is a lot of room for disagreement among coalitionists. The "Wirtschaftswoche" reported that Scholz had China's head of state Xi Jinping conveyed the message in mid-October that he would continue the China policy of his predecessor Angela Merkel and keep his coalition partners, the Greens and FDP, who are critical of China, in check. So far there has been no denial - if it were true, Scholz would have snubbed his coalition partners who wanted a new course in China. And of course the USA too, which is expecting more support from Germany.

The

will first have to take shape under the pressure of reality: Will the ambitious foreign policy and reliable Germany that is outlined there ever exist?

Or will it continue with the "We want to take responsibility, but also not position ourselves too clearly" of the Merkel years?

The traffic light coalition still has to agree that among themselves.

But in the worst case scenario, the debate could soon be overtaken by reality if the situation in Ukraine really escalates.

In a world crisis it is not what you intend to do that counts, only how you master it.

• Annalena Baerbock on the traffic lights and the next cabinet: "That's where you get to know each other personally"

Bundestag advises on compulsory vaccination and vaccinating dentists

Even before the traffic light is in power, she is again discussing

in the Bundestag today

: It is about

that are in the midst of the delta wave and in expectation of a possibly even more massive wave of omicons for more vaccinations and fewer contacts should take care. The Bundestag will presumably

planned by the traffic light

. In addition,

- for a limited period of time

to speed up the still chaotic vaccination campaign.

Changes to the Infection Protection Act are intended to give the federal states additional options to limit contacts in corona hotspots: They should be able to ban assemblies and events and close the catering trade.

Loser of the day ...

... are the

. You don't hear that often, after all, Bavaria is almost always the winner, but not this time: CSU General Secretary Markus Blume has complained bitterly that nobody from Bavaria is in the future traffic light government. "16 percent of Germans are Bavarians, but Bavarian ministers: none of them," criticized Blume. Bavaria is sitting in the Scholz cabinet "only on the bench". Bayern on the bench - that would be an imposition in football, but only in federal politics? In May, Blume had advised the Union in the "FAZ": "Stay away from identity issues!" But of course that does not apply to the CSU and Bavaria, after all, the party is only there to pursue identity politics for Bavaria.

Bavarians are not the only ones who complain about the lack of diversity in the government, but they are the most privileged: It can hardly be said that there have been too few important Bavarians in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany. The complaint that only two native East Germans will be represented in the future cabinet is more understandable: Steffi Lemke takes over the environmental department for the Greens, and Klara Geywitz the building ministry for the SPD. And what about ministers with a history of migration? There is only one: the future Green Minister of Agriculture Cem Özdemir. For a coalition that wants to "dare to make more progress", that is rather poor. After all, as Scholz promised, the cabinet will in future be made up of equal numbers of men and women.

But what can comfort the Bavarians?

Perhaps that another federal state, which is mostly disproportionately represented in governments, goes away empty-handed this time: There are exactly zero Saarlanders represented in the future cabinet.

75 years of SPIEGEL

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.

This brings me to my request: Write to us and ask us all the questions that interest you about our work.

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And now I wish you a good start to Tuesday!

Sincerely,

Mathieu von Rohr