How far would the US go to protect Ukraine from Russia 2:08
(CNN) -
Tensions between Ukraine and Russia are at their highest in years, with reports of a build-up of Russian troops near the border fueling fears about Moscow's intentions.
Ukraine warns that Russia is trying to destabilize the country ahead of a planned military invasion.
Western powers repeatedly warned Russia in recent weeks not to make any more aggressive moves against Ukraine.
Even on Tuesday, Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov told CNN that there will be a "really bloody massacre" if Russia decides to invade Ukraine.
In addition, he warned that "the Russians will also return in coffins," amid increased alarm about troop movements on the border of both nations.
There will be a "bloody massacre" if Russia invades us, warns Ukraine's defense minister
The Kremlin denies planning an attack, arguing that NATO support for Ukraine - including increased arms supplies and military training - constitutes a growing threat on Russia's western flank.
The picture is complicated, but this is what we know so far.
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What is the current situation on the border?
The United States and NATO have described the movements and concentrations of troops in and around Ukraine as "unusual" in recent weeks.
A member of the Armed Forces of Ukraine participates in military exercises at a training ground near the border with Crimea annexed to Russia in the Kherson region, Ukraine, on November 17, 2021.
Last month, satellite photos revealed that Russian equipment - including self-propelled guns, battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles - is moving into a training ground about 300 kilometers from the border.
However, no other information was released to support the Western powers' accusation of an increased threat.
Many of Russia's military bases are located in the west of the vast country, from where it is most likely - as history suggests - any threat to Russia to come.
Russia's Defense Ministry said on December 1 that it had started holding "regular" winter military exercises in its southern region, part of which borders Ukraine.
More than 10,000 soldiers participate in the exercises, according to the ministry.
Meanwhile, the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, bordering Russia, an area known as Donbas, have been under the control of Russian-backed separatists since 2014. Russian forces are also present in the area, to which Ukraine has joined. referred to as "temporarily occupied territories", although Russia denies it.
The front lines of the conflict have barely moved in five years, but small-scale clashes and sniper attacks are frequent.
Russia was angered when Ukrainian forces first deployed a Turkish-made combat drone in October to attack a pro-Russian separatist position.
Russia also has forces in the tens of thousands at its massive naval base in Crimea, the Ukrainian territory that was annexed in 2014. The Crimean peninsula, located south of the rest of Ukraine, is now connected by a road bridge with mainland Russia.
Russian soldiers patrol an area near a Ukrainian military unit in Perevalnoye, outside Simferopol, Crimea, on March 20, 2014.
What is the history of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia?
Tensions between Ukraine and Russia, both former Soviet states, escalated in late 2013 over a historic political and trade agreement with the European Union. After then-pro-Russian President Victor Yanukovych suspended the talks - apparently under pressure from Moscow - violent protests broke out in Kiev for weeks.
Then, in March 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, an autonomous peninsula in southern Ukraine with strong Russian loyalties, on the pretext that it was defending its interests and those of Russian-speaking citizens. First, thousands of Russian-speaking troops, dubbed "little green men" and later recognized by Moscow as Russian soldiers, were launched into the Crimean peninsula. Within days, Russia completed its annexation in a referendum that was deemed illegitimate by Ukraine and most of the world.
Soon after, pro-Russian separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine declared their independence from Kiev, sparking months of heavy fighting.
Despite the fact that Kiev and Moscow signed a peace agreement in Minsk in 2015, with the mediation of France and Germany, there have been repeated violations of the ceasefire.
According to the latest UN figures, there have been more than 3,000 conflict-related civilian deaths in eastern Ukraine since March 2014.
The European Union and the United States imposed a series of measures in response to Russia's actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, including economic sanctions targeting specific individuals, entities and sectors of the Russian economy.
Ukrainian soldiers prepare to support troop withdrawal on February 19, 2015 in Artemivsk, Ukraine.
The Kremlin accuses Ukraine of stoking tensions in the east of the country and of violating the Minsk ceasefire agreement.
What is the position of Russia?
The Kremlin has repeatedly denied that Russia plans to invade Ukraine, insisting that Russia poses no threat to anyone and that the movement of troops through its own territory should not be cause for alarm.
Moscow views NATO's growing support for Ukraine - in terms of weapons, training and personnel - as a threat to its own security.
He also accused Ukraine of increasing its own troop numbers in preparation for an attempt to retake the Donbas region, a charge Ukraine has denied.
Russian President Vladimir Putin called for specific legal agreements that preclude any further expansion by NATO eastward toward Russia's borders, saying the West failed to deliver on its earlier promised guarantees.
Putin also said that the deployment of sophisticated NATO weapons in Ukraine, such as missile systems, would cross a "red line" for Russia, amid concerns in Moscow that Ukraine is increasingly being armed by powers. of NATO.
Russian President Vladimir Putin watches the joint exercises of the North Sea and Black Sea fleets from a cruise ship in the Black Sea off the coast of Crimea on January 9, 2020.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said last month that the United States and other NATO member states were already supplying Ukraine with weapons and military advisers.
"And all this, of course, leads to a further aggravation of the situation on the border line," he said.
If the US and its NATO allies do not change course in Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has warned that Moscow has "the right to choose how to ensure its legitimate security interests."
What is the position of Ukraine?
The Ukrainian government insists that Moscow cannot prevent Kiev from strengthening ties with NATO if it so chooses.
"Russia cannot prevent Ukraine from approaching NATO and has no right to have a say in relevant discussions," the Foreign Ministry said in a statement to CNN, in response to Russian calls for NATO to halt its expansion into the East.
"Any Russian proposal to discuss with NATO or the United States the alleged guarantees that the Alliance will not expand to the East is illegitimate," he added.
Ukraine insists that Russia seeks to destabilize the country, and the country's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, recently stated that a coup plot involving Ukrainians and Russians was uncovered.
Uranian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba warned that a planned coup could be part of Russia's plan before a military invasion.
"External military pressure goes hand in hand with the internal destabilization of the country," he said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivers a speech during his visit to a front line in Ukraine's Donbas region on October 14, 2021.
Tensions between the two countries were exacerbated by the worsening of the Ukrainian energy crisis, which Kiev believes Moscow has deliberately provoked.
At the same time, the Zelensky government faces challenges on many fronts.
The government's popularity stalled amid multiple internal political challenges, including a third wave of COVID-19 infections in recent weeks and a struggling economy.
Many people are also unhappy that the government has not yet delivered the benefits it promised or ended the conflict in the east of the country.
Anti-government protests broke out in Kiev.
What does NATO say?
Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said "Russia will pay a high price" if it re-invades Ukraine, a NATO partner.
Moscote: Russia does not want NATO to protect Ukraine 2:28
"We have a wide range of options: economic sanctions, financial sanctions, political restrictions," Stoltenberg said, in an interview with CNN on December 1.
After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, NATO increased its defenses "with combat groups prepared in the eastern part of the alliance, in the Baltic countries, in Latvia ... but also in the Black Sea region," Stoltenberg said. .
Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and therefore does not have the same security guarantees as the members of the Alliance.
But Stoltenberg raised the possibility of Ukraine becoming a NATO member, saying that Russia has no right to tell Ukraine that it cannot aspire to join NATO.
What does the United States say?
The United States and its NATO allies are "deeply concerned" by the "aggressive stance" recently taken by Russia towards Ukraine, a strategic ally of the United States, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at an OSCE summit in Sweden.
Armored personnel carriers take part in an amphibious landing exercise conducted by army corps and naval infantry units of the Russian Black Sea Fleet at the Opuk range, Crimea, on October 18, 2021.
The secretary of state previously said that Russia is concentrating combat troops along Ukraine's border and is preparing the ability to invade it in a short time, if it so wishes.
Blinken warned Russia that "any new aggression can have serious consequences."
The Biden administration is also considering sending military advisers and new equipment, including weapons, to Ukraine to prepare allies for a possible Russian invasion, multiple sources familiar with the deliberations told CNN in November.
The Obama administration was caught off guard when Russia invaded Crimea in 2014 and supported an insurgency in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.
US officials say they are determined not to be surprised by another Russian military operation.
"Our concern is that Russia may make the grave mistake of trying to repeat what it undertook in 2014, when it accumulated forces along the border, crossed into sovereign Ukrainian territory, and did so on the false claim that it had been provoked," Blinken said in November. .
What other factors are at play?
Another important issue revolves around power supply.
Ukraine views the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline - which connects Russia's gas supply directly to Germany - as a threat to its own security.
When could Russia invade Ukraine?
2:10
Nord Stream 2 is one of two gas pipelines that Russia laid underwater in the Baltic Sea, in addition to its traditional onshore gas pipeline network that runs through eastern Europe, including Ukraine.
Kiev considers the gas pipelines running through Ukraine to be an element of protection against an invasion by Russia, as any military action could interrupt the vital flow of gas to Europe.
US analysts and lawmakers expressed concern that Nord Stream 2 will increase Europe's dependence on Russian gas and allow Moscow to selectively target countries like Ukraine with power outages, without causing a broader disruption to European supply.
Bypassing the Eastern European countries also means that those nations would be deprived of the lucrative transit fees that Russia would otherwise pay.
In May 2021, the Biden government waived the sanctions imposed on the company behind Nord Stream 2, thus giving it the green light.
US officials say the move was taken in the interests of US national security, in an attempt to rebuild deteriorating relations with Germany.
Last month, the United States imposed new sanctions on a Russian-linked entity and a vessel related to Nord Stream 2. Some US senators called for more sanctions to prevent Russia from using the pipeline as a weapon;
Ukraine also called for tougher measures.
"We see different ways to prevent this project from being weaponized by Russia. We differ on the volume and amount of sanctions needed to protect Europe from Nord Stream 2," Kuleba, the Ukrainian foreign minister, told CNN. .
With information Katharina Krebs, Anna Chernova, Alex Marquardt, Chandelis Duster, Radina Gigova and Nicole Gaouette.
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