Sébastien Laye is an entrepreneur and associate researcher at the Thomas More Institute.
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The difference between the politician and the statesman is this: the former thinks of the next election, the latter of the next generation
" said the American theologian James Freeman Clarke. The aporia of the French presidential election is that we must win this beauty contest while having the means to govern and succeed, in other words, not to repeat the macronist software, made vague promises oxymorons that immediately locked him into inaction.
Nowhere better than in economics and economic policies does this infernal equation seem to be confirmed. The Republican Party, sometimes with an ambiguous line on the economy in the past, however emerged from a salutary congress which severed the Gordian knot of various legacies from the past which made the emergence of a consensus almost impossible: on 35 hours, charges, taxation, bureaucracy and the proliferation of standards, all the candidates found themselves more or less, even though no one historically came from the right to properly liberal-Orleanist. They all knew how to understand the expectations of their electorate and to get rid of the intellectual terrorism of the Marxist economists in France.
Valérie Pécresse took her economic program at the right end, starting by registering any promise of lower taxes or charges as part of a program to reduce public spending.
Sebastien Laye
Valérie Pécresse claims to be a classic right-wing reformism, even the Fillonist heritage: she has swept away a considerable number of economic subjects, but primary ones oblige, these measures require to be specified, refined.
It is once again the game of a militant election where it was necessary to stand out within a small electorate.
Xavier Bertrand, for example, had chosen to focus on 3-4 key ideas in economic matters, already detailed as at the end of the presidential election.
It will therefore be up to the right as a whole from now on, to specify these measures, but also, as we will see in this analysis, to open the field of economic possibilities to other areas not addressed, so as not to fall into the trap. fillo-tatcherienne of the “blood and tears” of reforms. Not only do we not win an election without making people dream, but above all we do not accept the reforms themselves if they do not include them in a more general framework (prosperity, purchasing power, the happiness of the French) . A few adventures in politics taught me that I could never duplicate my economic ideas
ipso facto
and that I had to tirelessly link them to a narrative close to the people.
Valérie Pécresse took her economic program from the right end, starting by registering any promise of lower taxes or charges as part of a program to reduce public spending. It promises 45 billion euros in savings by 2027, an ambitious goal but not unrealistic in my opinion. For example, by promising to raise the retirement age to 65, we would save $ 25 billion to $ 30 billion. It all depends on the pace of the reform, but if we managed to do it at the start of the five-year term, the positive impact would be significant for public finances, especially since Valérie Pécresse has planned to protect small pensions to have the reform accepted. . In the same way,its promise to strengthen the degression of unemployment benefits (beyond two minimum wage) should generate 5 billion.
To read also Paul Cébille: "Valérie Pécresse benefits from the dynamics of the LR Congress"
Beyond its current program, there are many ways to reduce public spending.
Certain elements of her program, such as nursing homes, the decentralization of Pole Emploi or the desire to reduce the "administering" administration as the candidate puts it, harbor the seeds of tens of billions of savings if they are well. executed.
Candidate Pécresse appears determined to fight against the bureaucratization and over-administration of the country, and has the concrete experience of the RGPP under Sarkozy.
The objective of eliminating 150,000 civil servants is courageous, even if I would prefer commitments on the perimeter of the civil service; rethink what relates to the statute of the civil service or contractual jobs in the public sphere (65% of the workforce in Germany against 20% in France), also specify what must be done by the administration and what could be done by the private non-profit, or the association. Give freedom to civil society.
From these objectives, from this philosophy of public management that I have set out to describe elsewhere, will result a vision of the workforce. One of Valérie Pécresse's strongest measures is a targeted reduction in salary costs, up to 2.2 times the minimum wage (or around 3,000 euros) to allow a 10% increase in net salaries. It is not a question of a fall in employer contributions (difference between gross and super gross) but of the net-gross difference, as proposed by Xavier Bertrand: it is therefore more a measure of purchasing power than competitiveness. The question arises of the cost of this measure, 20 billion euros, if only the State compensates.
Denorm, debureaucratize, decentralize;
this triptych is necessary to let entrepreneurs breathe but also to adapt our public service.
Sebastien Laye
Denorm, debureaucratize, decentralize;
this triptych is necessary to let entrepreneurs breathe but also to adapt our public service.
Valérie Pécresse speaks of an "ax committee" to halve the size of our codes and remove 500 of the 1,500 parastatal structures currently in existence.
On the fiscal front, Valérie Pécresse defends a “shock of transmission of heritage” via more tax-exempt donations (up to 100,000 euros every six years) and proposes to continue lowering production taxes: this last point, crucial because it This is one of the reforms most likely to create GDP and employment, deserves to be clarified. Simply making the 10 billion Macron will have no impact. It is necessary to cut production taxes by half in two or three years for a real shock of competitiveness.
On the debt, the objective is measured - and realistic: to bring it back to 100% of GDP (the pre-Covid level) in 10 years, by finally regaining control of public finances following a truth-about-accounts operation.
On Europe, Valérie Pécresse also joined other candidates by proposing a carbon tax at the borders to fight against social and environmental dumping as well as a European preference in public procurement.
To read also Benjamin Morel: "Can Valérie Pécresse upset all forecasts?"
It is clear that the economic project - thus defined by major guidelines - is ambitious. Ultimately, after taking this array of measures from the Congressional campaign, there are still three efforts to be made for the candidate and her teams. The first effort is a more in-depth work of defining the measures and the pace of their application, which must be parallel to the pace of reduction in public expenditure: otherwise, the program will appear unrealistic and will be unachievable. On the end of the 35 hours (Xavier Bertrand had an indirect method to achieve the same result which was respectful of the freedom of companies and improved purchasing power), on the reduction of production taxes, on the pension reform,The devil is in the details and we will have to move forward on these details to be ready as of May 2022.
It will be necessary to have teams and individuals who have thought about these subjects for a long time, capable of stepping over the pitfalls that will arise in their path of application, and above all capable of communicating on these subjects.
Sebastien Laye
It will also be necessary to have teams and individuals who have thought about these subjects for a long time, capable of stepping over the pitfalls that will arise in their path of application, and above all capable of communicating on these subjects: but the elected LR them - even are uncomfortable with economic subjects on TV sets and
Figaro
columns
, often downgraded by LREM representatives. Nobody at LR currently comes close to Roland Lescure, spokesperson for LREM, in economics. All the elected officials have been confined for four years to sovereign subjects. There is no point in having good ideas with no one to defend them and then apply them.
The second effort is to rebalance the message so as not to just sell the reduction in public spending to the French, even though the Covid crisis has led to a weakening of the message among economists, against a backdrop of modern monetary theory and stimulus plans . This reduction must now be linked to a renewed French ambition, in industry, innovation, infrastructure, sovereignty, particularly digital, alternatives to Gafa; the state lets entrepreneurs do it but regains its role of initiator of major Pompidolian projects.
And last point, precisely to link the courageous reforms to collective well-being: they must again be included in a real macroeconomic vision, on growth, the euro, foreign trade. For a long time our ministers in Bercy no longer follow these subjects, are discarding the ECB and are content to repeat the mantra of reforms. But in my opinion, growth is 50% the economic cycle, 30% monetary policy, and only 20% reforms. If we don't properly adjust these 20% to 80%, we fail miserably. Since our great ministers of the economy (Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Christine Lagarde), the tradition has been lost and simple accountants have abandoned any ambition for action on growth, major macroeconomic balances or public investment.
This economic program, already very comprehensive, is also in my opinion still in gestation: it can become a winning program provided it tirelessly enriches it, and especially defends it in the media, over the coming months.
