FIGAROVOX. - According to an Elabe poll for BFMTV / L'Express published Tuesday, December 7, Valérie Pécresse climbs to 20% in the polls, qualifying for the second round. How do you explain this breakthrough in opinion polls?
David DESGOUILLES. -
For many years, the nomination of candidates (open primaries, congress) has been publicized. It started with Ségolène Royal in 2006. This media coverage, this feuilleton, with opinion studies, televised debates, reports, inevitably leads to a surge in the polls when the result comes. This happened with Ségolène Royal therefore, with François Hollande in 2012, and finally with Benoît Hamon and François Fillon during the 2017 presidential election. Here too, the poll breakthrough was impressive, the Socialist candidate immediately reaching 18 to 19% , and the candidate nominated by the primary of the right exceeding the 30% mark. We know what happened to them. Hamon was siphoned off by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, much more efficient than him in the countryside,and François Fillon lost the ten points he had thus gained, during the six or seven weeks which followed even before the first article on the Pénélope affair by the Canard enchaîné. The emergence of Valérie Pécresse the day after her appointment responds to the same "doping" mechanism, especially since it is a surprise for those polled who had not followed the televised debates as much as the circle of most politicized citizens.a surprise for those polled who had not followed the televised debates as much as the circle of the most politicized citizens.a surprise for those polled who had not followed the televised debates as much as the circle of the most politicized citizens.
The room for improvement is not in these categories but among the "baby boomers" that Emmanuel Macron took from LR at the time of the European elections.
David Desgouilles
Faced with its dynamic poll, the president of the Ile-de-France region wanted to keep a cool head on BFMTV: "The polls, it goes, it comes". Before explaining the fact that the French have "a desire for concrete work-study". Can it represent this alternation?
This shows in her a great wisdom and memory, which sets her apart from most of the commentators we have heard since yesterday. No doubt she also noticed that the poll in question reveals that those polled who prefer it are the least sure of their vote, among the favorites, a sign of the fragility that we mentioned above. No doubt she does not wish to repeat the mistakes of François Fillon who had gone skiing, crowned by his victory in the primary, leaving both rival teams to settle in his campaign headquarters and letting it infuse in the opinion, without worrying about it, the image of an anti-social candidate and hostile to the public service.
As Valérie Pécresse has taken up an economic program of the same Fillonist inspiration, it is rather in her interest to stay on the bridge and defend it step by step, by refuting all the caricatures that can be made of it. But structurally, it is possible that discovering it in detail, certain voters of the popular classes seduced by the new character will turn away from it. His room for improvement is not in these categories but among the "baby boomers" that Emmanuel Macron took from LR at the time of the European elections. How will the latter arbitrate between the "whatever the cost" of the President the Republic and the "he burned the cash" of Valérie Pécresse? Will they put these economic issues in the background to focus on sovereign themes? It is this fringe of theelectorate who will arbitrate between these two representatives of the "elite bloc", theorized by Jérôme Sainte-Marie, to appear in the second round of the presidential election.
I find it hard to see the other block, the “popular”, not being represented in the second round, since I adopt Jérôme Sainte-Marie's theory.
David Desgouilles
In the second round, she would beat the President of the Republic. Does this scenario seem plausible to you?
I find it hard to see the other block, the “popular”, not being represented in the second round, since I adopt Jérôme Sainte-Marie's theory.
It seems to me the battle of Valérie Pécresse against Emmanuel Macron will be played out in the first round, around the baby boomers, as mentioned above.
This scenario could indeed be plausible only in the event of a very strong abstention from the popular categories, as we observed for the municipal, departmental and regional elections. It would still be very surprising on the occasion of the queen's election, the presidential one. But that in this school hypothesis, Valérie Pécresse could be on an equal footing with Emmanuel Macron and even beat him is not very surprising because she would undoubtedly have more reserves of votes than him.
That said, you have to take your second-round polls with great caution.
Remember that after the first round in 2012, François Hollande was measured at 60% in some polls.
He finished at 51 at the polls less than two weeks later.
We are more than four months away from this second round.
These hypotheses are revealed above ground.
They ignore the electoral campaign and a context between April 11 and 24 that we can absolutely not guess.
