Simple “bubble” following his victory in the LR primary or the start of a long-term trend?
If it is impossible to answer this question and anticipate the rest, Valérie Pécresse is undeniably making a breakthrough in the polls of intention to vote for the presidential election.
Nominated as a Republican candidate by members on Saturday, the president of the Île-de-France region would obtain 16% of the vote (plus or minus 2.6 points with the margin of error) if the first round of the presidential election were to take place this Sunday, according to our Ipsos Sopra Steria poll for Le Parisien / Today in France and France Info.
This is four points more than in our previous survey, two months ago, when Xavier Bertrand was the best-placed right-wing party contender.
“Good candidate” for more than one in two Macronists
Such a score would place the president of the Île-de-France region in second position behind Emmanuel Macron, tied with Marine Le Pen.
This survey therefore shows that candidate LR would be able to qualify for the second round.
Eric Zemmour is relegated to fourth position (14% of the vote). The left, scattered in many candidates, peaks at low levels: 7% of voting intentions for Yannick Jadot, 8% for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and 5% for Hidalgo (who will also speak on Wednesday evening on TF1).
In detail, 49% of voters who voted François Fillon in 2017, 8% of those who voted for Emmanuel Macron and 3% of those who opted for Marine Le Pen would this time slip a Valérie Pécresse ballot into the ballot box. .
Note that a majority of voters for the Head of State this year believe that the president of the Ile-de-France region is a good candidate (15% even consider her "very good").
Finally, more than a third of those polled believe that it is she who best represents the ideas of the right.
But Emmanuel Macron is behind her (28%), a sign that the one who beat Eric Ciotti in the LR primary will have a lot to do to stand out.
"Polls come and go"
Other polls published in recent days have also shown a dynamic in favor of the former Minister of Higher Education, but in an even more marked way.
According to Elabe for BFMTV, for example, she would get 20% of the vote (with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points).
That is a jump of 11 points in just two weeks.
“Polls come and go.
But what is interesting is to feel that there is a desire for work-study training in the country, for concrete work-study with solutions for the country ", reacted Valérie Pécresse on Tuesday evening, seeing in these results" a desire of concrete alternation ”.
To read also Gabriel Attal: "Valérie Pécresse, it is the return of the annuity in politics"
1,500 adults, representative of the French population, were surveyed by Ipsos Sopra Steria via the Internet from Monday to Wednesday morning.
Only those who said they were certain to vote, or about one of them, were then included in the results.
These scores could therefore change as the campaign progresses.
Moreover, gaining several points in the polls after winning a primary is not a surprise.
And such a phenomenon must be interpreted with caution: three days after beating Manuel Valls at the end of January 2017, the former socialist deputy Benoît Hamon was given 16% of the voting intentions in an Elabe poll for “Les Echos” and Classic Radio.
He will only get 6.4% in the first round on April 23, 2017.
