Anyone who wants to assess the possibility that the US will reach an agreement in Vienna that is not completely surrendering to Iran, can these days examine its behavior in the face of an immediate and much more tangible threat to its closest allies in NATO - the Russian threat to Western Ukraine.
The Russians show determination, force and strategic consistency, while the US expresses embarrassment and loss of way, which a superpower can not afford, especially when it wants to enlist in the important test of our generation with China's rising power. And calm down: when the Western powers only want to "return home in peace", there is no fear that they will stop Iran, and certainly not China.
Biden's failure in Afghanistan, which hurts his status at home, is far less worrying. This is an operational failure during the evacuation, which ended the strategic failure of the very harmful presence for 20 years. The trend of leaving Iraq and the Middle East does not, in itself, indicate a weakness. In another context, these could indicate a correct global priority, in which the US concentrates its forces where they are irreplaceable and most needed - vis-à-vis China, East Asia, at the expense of other hotspots, where more efficient and reliable local substitutes can be found. For a massive American presence. By virtue of its global responsibility, the U.S. must provide these local forces with reliable backing, and sometimes maintain a symbolic and deterrent presence as a strategic "stumbling block."
But Biden insists on broadcasting laxity in all arenas.
On Tuesday, CIA chief Burns issued an astonishing statement that the United States has no evidence that Supreme Leader Khamenei decided to refer the nuclear program to weapons development. Whose guns are loaded, perhaps ahead of Purim.
William Burns, Photo: Reuters
Putin is issuing an ultimatum backed by formidable military concentrations on the Ukrainian border after capturing the Crimean peninsula a few years ago and sending military forces in civilian disguise to fight alongside rebel militias against the elected pro-Western government, which has been sitting in Kiev since 2014. US Secretary of State To Ukraine, and threatens that if they do, there will be a "decisive American response, including through heavy economic sanctions." Putin has reason to believe that just as the Crimean occupation became a fait accompli accompanied by sanctions, so will a direct or disguised occupation of parts of western Ukraine.
It may still be too early to judge whether Putin will get what he wants, or whether Biden will recover at the last minute. Ukraine wants to join NATO, its president urges the alliance to complete the process in the short term, and the US Secretary of Defense says "no country can veto such a move." The new hyper-voice, in case NATO crosses "red lines" in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the balance of determination is clearly in favor of Russia. Even if it chooses not to occupy Ukraine at this stage, it will probably succeed, at almost no cost, in preventing Ukraine from joining NATO. , In a way that leaves such an occupation, or a pro-Russian coup in Kiev, as an open option for a gym class.
Israel is once again preparing, as in the days of Obama, to operate in an environment of American fragility (and needless to say - European fragility) in all arenas: Biden is not responding to an Iranian attack on an American base in response to an Israeli attack;
The United States ignores a blatant Iranian attempt to assassinate the Iraqi prime minister, and to control the militias under its control in Iraq; , In Riyadh and the Gulf - as determined to confront Iran and stop it by force.
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