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"Macron, Le Pen, Pécresse, Zemmour: who will finally come out of the hat in the second round?"

2021-12-10T14:44:10.430Z


FIGAROVOX / TRIBUNE - While the duel between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen in the second round remained the most likely hypothesis, the candidacies of Eric Zemmour and Valérie Pécresse made this prospect uncertain. The essayist Nicolas de Pape analyzes their real chances of winning.


Nicolas de Pape is a journalist, novelist and essayist.

He publishes

Everything must disappear

(Edilivre).

Opinion polls are passing and no longer look alike.

Here is a recent poll places Valérie Pécresse second in the first round ahead of Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour, but above all likely to win in the second round against Emmanuel Macron (52/48).

Macronie was right to fear Pécresse like the plague.

Of course, the campaign will be very long.

You never know exactly how pollsters juggle the margins of error - up to 3%.

With 14%, Eric Zemmour may just as well be in reality at 17 and Valérie Pécresse, with 20%, be at exactly the same point.

Do “Zemmourians” necessarily confess their sin over the telephone?

What about “professional respondents”?

In addition to the woman asset, very promising in the era of #MeToo, Valérie Pécresse embodies a reassuring center-right bourgeoisie.

Nicholas of pope

One thing is certain: except for the withdrawal of Anne Hidalgo and a few leftists who would propel Jean-Luc Mélenchon, except Pénélopegate who would once again strike Les Républicains and unless Éric Zemmour does not collect the 500 sponsorships, we should end up with four "presidential": Emmanuel Macron, Valérie Pécresse, Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour.

In addition to her femininity, Valérie Pécresse embodies a reassuring center-right bourgeoisie.

Even if they sense a certain opportunism that titillates her on her right flank, the French can expect a certain dignity from her, no outrage or provocation: a Republican monarch that we will take pleasure in bringing to the pinnacle for better, invariably, "cut" his head afterwards.

Old French tradition.

To read also "" Wokism "will prosper as long as there is no structured opposition against it"

The possibility of a Valérie Pécresse beating Emmanuel Macron, evoked by a hitherto orphan poll, demonstrates all the fragility of the President of the Republic who was believed to be in granite.

Emmanuel Macron could unscrew when he comes out of the ambiguity, that is to say when he enters the campaign.

Let us remember that the Covid-19 swept through Donald Trump.

The virus could well play the spoiler in this completely crazy presidential election.

The government's relentless about-face for nearly two years has left an impression of deep chaos.

And Macron's socio-economic record (reformettes, abysmal public debt, stratospheric trade deficit) is not any brighter.

Only unemployment is declining, but this is the logical consequence of a post-containment resumption of activity.

We have not emphasized enough the hand extended by Eric Zemmour to Villepinte to secular Muslims, promised to be his brothers.

Nicholas of pope

We are definitely far from the inevitable duel, but still possible, Macron / Le Pen from where the young president "with technocratic intelligence" thought to emerge a winner ... Who will finally come out of the hat in the second round? Pécresse / Macron, Pécresse / Le Pen, Pécresse / Zemmour or even Macron / Zemmour? What are Eric Zemmour's real chances of making it not only in the second round but also in the Élysée? Isn't the glass ceiling also valid for him? The addition of the self-proclaimed discriminated against and the globalized elites, that makes a bunch of voters against him.

To win, Eric Zemmour must convince a bourgeoisie sheltered in the beautiful neighborhoods and a people of the fields who enjoy landscapes of plenty, that France is indeed experiencing a civilizational collapse but that, for all that, it does not intend to explode his homeland in a thousand pieces.

Read also "Of the seven main candidates for the Elysee, none lives outside the Parisian metropolis!"

We have not emphasized enough the hand extended by Eric Zemmour to Villepinte to secular Muslims, promised to be his brothers.

This gesture that the right-wing people were waiting for and that many media did not want to see (and which was greatly applauded by deeply Republican supporters) should absolve this Berber of Algeria from accusations of racism.

However, the successful essayist is not yet completely reassuring.

It must imperatively erase the last and rough roughness of its envelope.

The violence - even returned - of his words still harms him.

And by dint of unmasking the powerful, he risks scaring them.

The promised standoff against the European Commission, the rapprochement with Russia and the planned exit from NATO's integrated command add quite a bit of external enmity to its many internal enemies.

The "one against all" benefited Donald Trump but he still benefited from the effect of surprise ...

Source: lefigaro

All news articles on 2021-12-10

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