What number of unreported cases can be expected at Omikron?

Created: 12/16/2021 Updated: 12/16/2021, 2:47 PM

From: Martina Lippl

Omikron is expanding at a breakneck speed.

Data from the UK and Denmark show how quickly this is happening.

And in Germany?

Berlin - In Europe the cases of the Omikron * variant are increasing.

Denmark got it particularly quickly.

"Omikron takes over" announced the state serum institute SSI at the beginning of the week.

The Danish institute assumes that Omikron will be the dominant Covid-19 variant this week.

The UK reports worrying numbers.

"The omicron wave continues to sweep across the UK," warns Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Omikron already accounts for around 40 percent of all new infections.

How big is the number of unreported omicons in Germany?

And what is the Omikron situation like in Germany?

Are we in the dark with the Omicron infection numbers?

The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) has only published official Omikron numbers in its Corona * weekly report, always on Thursday evening.

So far, 28 cases of the Omikron variant have been recorded in Germany (as of December 9th). According to the RKI, 36 cases were transmitted via the reporting system in which there was a laboratory diagnostic suspicion of Omikron based on variant-specific PCR tests. 44 of them were recorded in the 48 calendar week (November 29th to December 5th). New figures will be released this Thursday (December 16). “The weekly report for today is to be expected around 5 or 6 p.m.”, the RKI announced at the request of

.

Omikron, however, is highly contagious.

Experts speak of a doubling time of two to three days.

"The last-mentioned figures are already out of date after a few days," says statistician Prof. Christian Hesse in the

.

With a weekly update, there would be ten times as many cases by the next week.

When will the Omikron wave come to Germany?

According to experts, it is difficult to estimate when the Omikron wave will really start in Germany due to the data situation in Germany. There was no data on how much Omikron circulates in Germany. Prof. Dr. Dirk Brockmann, head of the Epidemiological Modeling of Infectious Diseases project group at the Robert Koch Institute, cautiously switched on a video link from the Science Media Center on Wednesday. He could not give an exact point in time. "But when it starts, it is easy to say what the course will be like," says Brockmann.

“Genome sequencing is better in Great Britain and Denmark,” emphasizes the Berlin researcher.

Modeling studies from Great Britain and Denmark give a good indication of what will then happen in Germany.

With a doubling time every two days, this could "happen very, very, very quickly".

In view of the pace in neighboring countries, Corona experts estimate that Omikron will prevail in Germany by mid-January.

"We will have a serious problem from January," predicts virologist Christian Drosten in the NDR podcast "Coronavirus Update"

Why is Germany lagging behind with Omicron numbers?

When it comes to monitoring virus variants, the UK and Denmark are considered role models. In Denmark, for example, all positive corona samples are tested for Omikron using special test methods. The Danish serum institute SSI now publishes a report on the Omikron cases every day.

In Germany, laboratories are to subject five percent of all PCR-positive Sars-CoV-2 samples to a genome analysis and then report them to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). In view of the high number of infections, German laboratories are overloaded with PCR tests and sequencing. “The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 cases for which genome sequencing has been carried out has been falling continuously for several weeks. This is due, among other things, to the strong increase and the high number of cases over the past few weeks, ”says the RKI weekly report (as of December 9th). The RKI recommends: "It is therefore necessary to prioritize the use of PCR tests in accordance with the national test strategy."

The RKI sees no major gap in genome sequencing.

"The absolute number of sequencing is relatively constant, the proportion has recently decreased (only) because of the high number of infections," the RKI announced at the request of

*.

How does Omikron circulate in Germany?

In Germany, the Corona variant Delta still dominates - as the RKI graphic from the weekly report from December 9 shows.

Experts fear that this will change in January.

© RKI graphics

GISAID reports 120 Omikron cases in Germany

In the GISAID database, the Omikron variant has so far been detected in 102 samples in Germany (as of December 16).

The global science initiative GISAID promotes free access to genome data from influenza and Sars-CoV-2 viruses.

Is that the tip of the iceberg in Germany?

Denmark registered 6,047 Omicron cases as of Thursday.

On Monday there were 3437. “Unfortunately, we see that the number of new Omicron cases is increasing day by day, as expected.

The increase also increases overall infection rates.

This confirms that the Omikron variant will be a major challenge for our society this winter, ”said SSI boss Henrik Ullum on Thursday.

The Frankfurt virologist Sandra Ciesek is very concerned about the developments in Denmark and Great Britain.

Because, according to her, the infection process cannot be stopped.