White Christmas in Munich: What are the chances for 2021 and when it used to be really white
Created: 12/16/2021, 05:23 AM
From: Cindy Boden
White Christmas in Munich: will snow fall again this year?
© N. Bruckmann / M.
Litzka / Imago Images
Will Christmas 2021 in Munich be white?
A data analysis enables a view of the snow conditions in the state capital since 1954. And these statistics actually give hope.
Munich - What are the chances of a Christmas with plenty of snow in Munich * in 2021? And is it really true that on Christmas Eve and the public holidays it is becoming increasingly rare that sledges can be fetched from the cellars? A data analysis of Munich climate data from 1954 onwards answers these questions. And an expert from the German Weather Service (DWD) looks a bit into the future.
Snow in Munich on all three Christmas days: on average, this only happens every four years.
The basis for this evaluation are figures from the DWD, which provides daily snow depths for the Munich city area from 1954 onwards.
Many meteorologists are even more generous as to when they generally speak of a white Christmas: namely when there is at least one centimeter of snow on at least one of the three Christmas days.
So a few snowflakes are not enough.
Munich: When was there snow on Christmas days in the past?
Munich: When was there snow earlier at Christmas?
© N. Bruckmann / M.
Litzka / Imago Images
For snow enthusiasts in Munich, one circumstance is even more gratifying: on average in almost every second year it was white in the mornings on at least one of the Christmas days.
Munich children of the 1960s even have a particularly large number of memories of a white Christmas: All the holidays from 1960 to 1964 were white, and in 1969 there was always snow again.
In the 1980s, things looked very different again.
In just two years, snow lovers could build a snowman for Christmas.
Munich with a good chance of a white Christmas?
The city last celebrated Christmas with snow quite a while ago - on December 26, 2014. Munich is popularly even referred to as a big city with the best chances of a white Christmas. A statement that Lothar Bock would actually sign. He is a meteorologist and works in the DWD climate office in Munich. "The higher the region, the more likely it is that you will see snow."
In a phone call with
tz.de
, Bock classifies: “It wasn't that Christmas was always white in the past.” Snow requires appropriate weather conditions, including wind from the north or north-east. In addition, it must be sufficiently moist. It is worth taking a look at even earlier data: According to Bock, there was a high number of warm weather conditions at the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century. “The time was rather unfavorable for a white Christmas.” In the 1920s to 1980s, however, these weather conditions became rarer.
In addition, the so-called Christmas thaw often causes a green Christmas.
Not every year, but often, the general weather situation changes again shortly before Christmas and prevents a white Christmas.
Mild weather currents then reach the country.
If there was snow before, it will melt away.
But that's not a specialty for Munich.
In the Bavarian capital, however, it sometimes comes to the fore that the foehn from the Alpine foothills * reaches the city, which means that “very winter temperatures prevail”, as Bock explains.
Record in Munich with 28 centimeters: A lot of snow on Christmas 1962
Older Munich residents also know icy temperatures in Munich.
For the first Christmas holiday in 1962, for example, the DWD determined a temperature of minus 15.7 degrees Celsius.
In addition, there was a comparatively massive snow cover: 28 centimeters were on each of the three Christmas days.
No other year since 1954 has come close to this value.
Children who go to elementary schools this year, for example, no longer know such snow depths on Christmas days in Munich.
Incidentally, it doesn't look much different in the surrounding area: at least data from the Ebersberg-Halbing station show similar snow values.
Christmas Eve in Munich: During these five years there was the most snow
Christmas Eve in Munich: In these five years there was the most snow © N. Bruckmann / M.
Litzka
And how likely are white Christmases in 2021 and in the years to come?
Looking at such a short period of just three days makes it harder to identify reliable trends.
In general, climate change is often cited as a determining factor for the future in the weather discussion.
But according to Bock, it is still too early to name its influence specifically for Christmas.
At the moment, the fluctuations during this time could still be quite normal.
The next 20 to 30 years will be like the last 20 or 30 years.
Lothar Bock, meteorologist from the DWD climate office in Munich
Munich's statistics for a white Christmas: "It would be that time again"
According to the meteorologist, there is not much that can be read from the past decades for the future.
At least one can say one thing: “The way the last 20 or 30 years were, so will the next 20 to 30 years.” That is at least a small ray of hope for snow and Christmas fans.
Because even during this time there was a white Christmas in Munich - "and there will be every now and then in the next few years".
If Bock then looks at the numbers and only follows the statistics, he deduces for the upcoming Christmas festival 2021: "Then it would be time again for at least one day to be wintry."
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Transparency: Our data, sources and methods
The German Weather Service (DWD) measures the total snow depth in the morning in Munich on Dachauer Strasse, south of the Olympic Park.
In the 1990s the station moved there from Bavariaring.
The measuring station is at an altitude of around 515 meters.
An ultrasonic snow depth gauge is used to measure.
Heights measured by hand are also recorded.
For every Christmas Day (December 24th to 26th), data is available from 1954 to 2020.
The data for the Ebersberg-Halbing station were evaluated from 2000 onwards.
