Ómicron: What can the world learn from the countries where it increases?

We are not defenseless against omicron variant, says doctor 0:46

London (CNN) -

South Africa, the United Kingdom and Denmark are three countries where the omicron variant is on the rise, less than a month after it was first detected.

The UK is looking to get vaccinated to emerge from the crisis, with an accelerated campaign to administer a third dose of the Covid-19 vaccine to all eligible adults by the end of December.

California takes action again to curb the spread of omicron 2:17

In South Africa, meanwhile, researchers say early data suggests that omicron causes milder symptoms, but it is not yet clear what role immunity plays from vaccination or previous infections.

Denmark is considering new restrictions in an attempt to control an increase in new cases.

So what can other countries learn from your experience?

It's too late to keep omicron out

Despite the fact that many nations imposed a series of travel restrictions, the variant has spread rapidly throughout the world.

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The director general of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, told a news conference on Tuesday that 77 countries have reported cases of the new variant.

"The reality is that omicron is probably in most countries, even if it hasn't been detected yet."

"Omicron is spreading at a rate that we haven't seen with any previous variant," Tedros said.

"We are concerned that people will rate omicron as mild. We have certainly already learned that we underestimate this virus at our own risk."

He added that even if omicron causes milder disease, "the sheer number of cases could once again overwhelm unprepared health systems."

The UK government removed 11 countries, all in southern Africa, from its "red list" on Tuesday in light of the spread of the omicron variant within its own borders, meaning the hotel quarantine has already it is not necessary for visitors to those destinations.

The variant has already been detected in 36 US states, Washington, and Puerto Rico.

"I imagine omicron will be everywhere soon," Michael Head, senior researcher in global health at the University of Southampton in England, told CNN.

"And there will be a large number of omicron cases that most countries have yet to detect, in part because testing systems and genomic capabilities may be limited."

It wouldn't take long for Ómicron to be the dominant strain

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The first two cases of the omicron variant were detected in the UK on November 27.

By Tuesday, it had overtaken delta as the dominant strain of coronavorus in London, according to the UK Health Security Agency.

"Now, more than ever, it is vital to get your first, second or booster dose as soon as possible. Don't leave it to chance," London Regional Director of Public Health Kevin Fenton tweeted.

UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid said Tuesday that omicron cases are doubling every other day in the country.

He added that "the growth in omicron cases here in the UK now reflects the rapid increase that we are seeing in South Africa."

By Thursday, the UK had reported 88,376 new coronavirus cases, according to government data, the highest daily number since the pandemic began.

South Africa also recorded its highest number of daily cases on Wednesday.

Denmark's Statens Serum Institute (SSI) said omicron was expected to become the dominant variant of the coronavirus this week.

Nearly 10,000 cases of infection were confirmed in the country in the past 24 hours, SSI said Thursday.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Fredricksen said the cases were "very, very high" and she had "no doubt that further measures will be needed to break the chains of infection."

Meanwhile, European Commission Director Ursula von der Leyen told lawmakers in Brussels that the omicron variant of the new coronavirus would become the dominant variant in the 27-nation bloc by mid-January.

In its latest risk assessment, released on Wednesday, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) warned that there was a "very high" risk that the variant would spread further in the region.

And he added that "it is considered very likely to cause additional hospitalizations and deaths", beyond those already predicted by the delta variant.

In the United States, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, told CNN on Tuesday that omicron would become the dominant variant of the coronavirus in the country "for sure" given its doubling time.

But, Fauci said, it's not yet clear what that will mean for severe disease levels.

On its website, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) now estimates that omicron makes up 2.9% of circulating virus, compared to 96.8% for delta, as of for the week ending December 11.

Too early to tell if omicron infection is milder

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Data from South Africa are being scrutinized for clues as to how the spread of omicron could develop elsewhere.

South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) has taken a cautiously optimistic tone.

"Although data is still being collected, evidence suggests that the current wave may be milder," the agency said.

A study published Tuesday by Discovery Health, a large health insurance company in South Africa that covers 3.7 million people, found that vaccines provide less protection against the new strain, but hinted that omicron causes milder symptoms. than previous variants.

Two doses of the Pfizer vaccine protected 33% against infection overall, but were 70% effective in preventing serious complications, including hospitalization, the researchers said.

Meanwhile, the risk of ending up in hospital for COVID-19 was 29% lower for omicron infections in adults, compared to the original strain, the study estimated.

But others are less confident.

England's chief medical officer Chris Whitty warned that the UK's daily COVID-19 case records "will break down a lot over the next several weeks as rates continue to rise", and that this will translate into "large numbers" they will need hospital treatment in the coming weeks.

"I want to be clear: I'm afraid this is going to be a problem," Whitty said Wednesday.

"Of course South African scientists and UK scientists and scientists around the world are trying to determine the exact proportions right now."

More real-time data is urgently needed before scientists can begin to assess the severity of omicron infection in other populations, Head said.

In the UK, scientists will analyze the impact of the variant in a population where 89% of the population aged 12 years and over have received at least one dose of the Covid-19 vaccine, and 44% of those aged 12 years or more have received two doses and a booster dose, according to government figures.

But the picture is very different elsewhere.

"In many countries around the world there will be people who are not vaccinated or who are receiving one dose; in sub-Saharan Africa, most people have not yet received two doses," Head said.

"So we have to analyze a bit if there is any protection, any protection ... in those populations as well."

In South Africa, people may already have some immunity to the virus, either through vaccination, previous infection, or both, and that protects them, according to Richard Friedland, CEO of the private hospital network Netcare.

Multiple studies have shown that people who get naturally infected and then get vaccinated have very strong immunity.

South Africa's population is also generally younger.

Vaccines alone won't slow omicron

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Health experts recommend that as omicron spreads, countries continue to implement non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that are already known to reduce airborne transmission of viruses, such as social distancing and improving indoor ventilation.

"Countries can and should prevent the spread of omicron with measures that work today," said Tedros, the head of the WHO.

"They are not vaccines instead of masks. They are not vaccines instead of distancing. They are not vaccines instead of ventilation or hand hygiene. Do it all. Do it consistently. Do it right."

Faced with what Prime Minister Boris Johnson described as an incoming "tidal wave" of omicron infections, the UK government decided to "accelerate" its campaign to administer booster doses.

Johnson's office cited data suggesting that "vaccine efficacy against symptomatic infection is substantially reduced against omicron with just two doses, but a third dose increases protection to more than 70%."

However, the UK Parliament also approved the introduction of covid passes, showing proof of vaccination or a recent negative covid test, to enter nightclubs and large venues, despite a major rebellion within Johnson's own party.

Lawmakers also passed measures that include the mandatory use of masks in most interior spaces.

South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla on Thursday called for "responsible behavior and stricter enforcement" of covid-19 restrictions to prevent a possible spike in cases related to the holiday season, according to a ministry press release. .

Head said it was important to continue mitigation measures while ensuring that populations around the world, including the poorest nations, have access to three doses of Covid-19 vaccines as quickly as possible, which could lead to further 12 to 24 months, he warned.

The demand for vaccines and tests may increase

The omicron variant: the best and worst scenario 0:44

The rise of the omicron variant may encourage more people to get a booster dose and lead to an increase in demand for COVID-19 testing.

When the UK opened its booster dose program this week to all eligible adults, the NHS (National Health Service) website crashed due to demand for appointments, lateral flow test kits were no longer available at line and long lines formed at vaccination centers.

The UK Health Security Agency said on Wednesday it was doubling down on the shipment of home test kits.

Denmark's SSI also reported Tuesday that the country's covid-19 testing system was under pressure as infection rates soared.

The demand for vaccines in South Africa has not increased since omicron emerged.

But South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who tested positive for COVID-19 on Sunday, urged his fellow citizens to get vaccinated.

"Do whatever you can and do to stay safe, starting with vaccination," he tweeted.

Ramaphosa was forced to delay his booster dose, his office said.

Despite the increase in cases, we may not see more lockdowns

WHO: Covid-19 vaccine is not enough against omicron 0:48

Little has been said about new lockdowns so far, despite concerns about the rapid spread of omicron.

Speaking during a visit to a vaccination center in Ramsgate in southern England, the UK prime minister said that instead of "confining things", the government is asking people to "be cautious" and "reflect on their activities in the run-up to Christmas. "

Johnson, who faced a scandal over alleged Downing Street office parties that violated restrictions last winter, added: "This is very different from last year because what we have is the added protection of vaccines and the ability to perform tests ".

"I think scientifically right now there is a very strong argument for more interventions to be implemented, but politically that is less acceptable," Head said.

However, countries "need to be realistic that they may need lockdowns at some point," he said, with either this variant or a future one, as lockdown "is a useful tool of last resort."

Countries are still resorting to a number of other measures to try to curb the spread of the omicron and delta variants.

For example, Norway this week banned the serving of alcohol in restaurants and bars, in addition to imposing more restrictions on schools and speeding up its vaccination campaign.

But there also appears to be some degree of acceptance that people will have to learn to "live with" the new variant, especially where COVID-19 vaccination rates are high.

In Australia's New South Wales state, where 93.3% of people aged 16 and over have been fully vaccinated, restrictions were eased this week despite cases of omicron.

"The virus is here, omicron is in Australia and we are going to live with the virus and we will not let it carry us away," Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison told 4BC radio.

CNN's Naomi Thomas, Virginia Langmaid, Maggie Fox, Niamh Kennedy, Vasco Cotovio, James Frater, Allegra Goodwin, and Caitlin McGee contributed to this report.

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