The Legislative Council election will be held on Sunday (19th). The Hong Kong Institute of Public Opinion today (17th) released the last relevant survey before the election.
Among the 10 geographical constituencies, candidates in 8 districts have a higher chance of winning. The other two districts have no obvious advantages, namely, Hong Kong Island East and Southwest New Territories.
Minyan collected 891 samples through telephone surveys and 10,174 samples through group surveys, and asked about voting intentions, and analyzed which among the 10 local constituencies had a higher chance of winning.
No one in the east of Hong Kong Island and the southwest of the New Territories has a higher chance of winning
No one in Hong Kong Island East has a higher chance of winning. Candidates in this district include Liang Xi, Liao Tiancheng, Wu Qiubei and Pan Zhuohong.
Hong Kong Island West wins the higher candidate for Yip Liu Shuyi, and the other candidates are Chen Xuefeng and Fang Longfei.
The winner of the Kowloon East election is Tang Jiabiao, and the other candidates are Yan Wenyu, Chen Jinxiong, Hu Jianhua and Li Kaxin.
The winner of Kowloon West is Zheng Yongshun, and the other candidates are Liang Wenguang and Frederick Fung.
The higher odds of winning in Kowloon is Li Huiqiong, and the other candidates are Yang Yongjie and Tan Xiangwen.
The one with the higher odds of winning in the southeast of the New Territories is Li Sai Wing, and the other candidates are Cai Mingxi and Lin Suwei.
The winner of the New Territories North is Liu Guoxun, and the other candidates are Zhang Xinyu, Shen Haojie and Tsang Liwen.
The higher odds of winning in Northwest New Territories are Zhou Hao Ting and Tian Beichen, and other candidates are Huang Junlang.
No one in the Southwestern New Territories has a higher chance of winning. Candidates in this district include Liu Cheuk Yu, Chen Hengpin and Chen Yingxin.
The odds of winning in Northeast New Territories are Chan Keqin, and the other candidates are Li Zijing, Wong Shing Chi and Wong Ying Hao.
It is worth mentioning that each geographical constituency has two seats. Based on the above data, there are already two higher candidates, Zhou Hao Ting and Tian Beichen, in the northwestern New Territories.
47% of the interviewees chose candidates to support based on the people's livelihood policy.
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47% support candidates based on livelihood policies
Minyan also asked about voting intentions. The survey conducted on December 9-14 showed that 48% of the respondents tended to vote, which was 4 percentage points lower than the survey conducted between November 29 and December 3.
39% of the respondents prefer not to vote, which is 3 percentage points higher than the previous survey.
The survey shows that 31% of the respondents believe that there are people in their constituency worthy of support, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous survey.
52% of respondents believe that no one is worthy of support, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous time.
As for the reasons for supporting the candidate, 47% of people said it was a livelihood policy, 22% said it was political stance, and 18% said it was an economic policy.
For the list of candidates from all sectors in the Legislative Council election,
please click here to refer to the "Hong Kong 01" election website.
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