Sha Banshan's Notes | It is rumored that Lin Zheng expressed his non-reelection to Beijing more than three months ago. Three possibilities have emerged

After the Legislative Council elections, the focus of the political circle has shifted to the Chief Executive's race in March next year. Carrie Lam has just completed the last debriefing during his term. However, from the speeches of national leaders, it seems that there is no clue that the central government is interested in the next Chief Executive.

Lam Cheng was repeatedly questioned by reporters in Beijing whether he would fight for re-election. He only said that he "will serve as the fifth chief executive until June 30 next year." This remark caused different interpretations in the political circles. Does Lin Cheng have a hint?

Sha Banshan heard that a close friend of Carrie Lam told politicians that Carrie Lam had expressed to the leaders a few months ago that he would not even have any direction and hope that the central government would find another candidate. However, "retreating to advance" has always been Lam's customary tactics. Analyzing this statement, there are three major possibilities...

Chief Executive does not need to resign for re-election

Lam Cheng said that "the term of office will be until June 30 next year". There was a lot of discussion in the political circles. Some people speculated that it meant that Lin Cheng hinted that at the expiration of his term, he would bid farewell to the Government House. Some analysts said that even if Lam Cheng runs for the election, he will not resign to fight for it. Re-elected.

However, at the time of its implementation, the law did not stipulate that the current chief executive needs to resign or ask for leave to run for re-election. In other words, the current chief executive can participate in the election. To resign from public office, for example, Carrie Lam was elected as Chief Executive in 2017 and resigned as Chief Secretary of Administration in January.

As for whether Lam Cheng implied that "the office will be inaugurated in one hour," some senior officials of the establishment analyzed to Sha Banshan. Lam Cheng's entire sentence focused on the "fifth chief executive", because regardless of whether Lam Cheng was re-elected, his fifth term is indeed Until June 30 next year, this is an insurance statement, with a smile unless Carrie Lam wants to step down early.

Lam Cheng’s words at the press conference seem to be difficult to examine his mind. However, reliable information has been revealed to Sha Banshan. Recently, Lam Cheng’s cronies have vented to the political circles, saying that Lam Cheng had expressed to the national leader that he did not intend to be re-elected a few months ago. Looking forward to finding another candidate for the next chief executive.

I have been serving as the fifth Chief Executive until June 30 next year. Therefore, during this period of time, everything that happened in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region will be handled by the Chief Executive. It will be handled by me.

Carrie Lam responds to whether he will do a good job in the election of the chief executive in March next year as the chief executive

According to analysis by people in the political circle, there are three possibilities for Lin Zheng's remarks:

The first is "retreat to advance". In the past, whenever the government was changed, Carrie Lam seemed to behave "there is no demand". For example, in 2012, Carrie Lam, the then Director of Development, was regarded as the next Chief Secretary for Administration. "Not enough time" implied not to remain in office, and eventually became the second in command of Leung Chun-ying's government. By 2016, Lam Cheng repeatedly stated that he would not stay in office. As a result, Leung Chun-ying unexpectedly gave up re-election, and Lam Cheng immediately "U-turned" one hundred and eighty Turning the corner, not only participated in the election, but was also successfully elected, so Lam Cheng Jin's return to the old tricks is not ruled out.

Through the announcement of non-re-election to Beijing, it is a retreat on the surface, and it is really enterprising, because it shows that the next "not fishing", after all, it is possible to fight for "retention", even if the possibility is slightly lower, at least there is a chance I learned earlier whether I had received "blessings".

Taking 10,000 steps back, the biggest risk is only a long time no "reply" from Beijing, but this is not a big loss, at best I feel a little nervous.

The second is "anti-customer-oriented". Another possibility is that if Lam Cheng intends to go to horse, but in the end there is no "blessing" from Beijing, and there is no chance to stand for the next election. Objectively, he is completely passive. Therefore, he expressed early "not re-elected." "If the situation develops like the above-mentioned "no speech, no congratulations", then you can take the initiative to show off, and it has long been stated that non-reelection is not "no choice," but "I don't choose."

The third is "the intention to go" has been decided. Lam Chengguo is really disappointed and has no intention of being re-elected. After finishing this term, he will retire. Therefore, he will notify Beijing as soon as possible and find another wise man.

However, politicians generally analyze that the third possibility is the lowest.

Of course, early expressing the intention to "not re-elect" also has an additional risk, that is, the fake show is true. Beijing originally intended to support Lin Zheng, but seeing Lin Zheng expressing his unwillingness to be re-elected, he changed his course and looked for someone else. However, such a trifle has "misrepresentation". The probability, after all, is very low.

On the other hand, the announcement of "non-re-election" can take advantage of the two advantages of "retreat for advancement" and "anti-attack". Although it may not be a winning move, it is certainly not a bad move.

Chen Feng was asked about his intention to stand for election and said with a smile that he was older

As for the recent "international dark horse" and member of the Standing Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, Margaret Chan, according to Sha Banshan’s inquiries, she was asked on one occasion whether she would stand for election. The 74-year-old Margaret Chan responded with a smile and said that she was old, but Political circles generally believe that if there is a "national-level mission" entrusted, age is no longer a key factor.

Lam Cheng’s report on his job︱ When asked to fight for re-election, Lam Cheng: As the fifth chief executive until June 30 next year, Sha Banshan’s notes ︱ Chief Executive "Dark Horse" Margaret Chan will appear in a high profile next month in the Tung Chee Hwa Fund’s Tung Chee Hwa Fund’s handwriting on Sha Banshan ︱ There is no "blessings from the Election Committee" List"!

The establishment of free combat may have unexpected results