The situation between Russia, Ukraine and the West remains tense shortly before Christmas.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made very far-reaching demands in the conflict and has troops deployed near the Ukrainian border.
The West is ready to talk, but has already rejected most of the requests from Moscow.
What options do the Russian President have now, and how did the deadlock come about in the first place?
An overview of the situation:
Does Russia want to invade Ukraine?
If you believe the Russian EU ambassador, then no. "I can assure you that no Russian troops are busy preparing for an invasion of Ukraine," said Vladimir Chishov recently to the "Welt". He did not understand why Europe was so concerned about Russian troop movements that were taking place on Russia's own territory. "Not a single Russian soldier has moved across the Russian border," he emphasized. Russia is pursuing a policy that supports Russian-speaking population groups and compatriots who live in other countries. "But Russia has never said that we intend to use military means to do this," emphasized the diplomat.
But what Russia says and what Russia does are often - and in this case especially - two different things. The US newspaper "Washington Post" reported in early December, citing anonymous government sources, that Moscow was planning "extensive movements of a hundred battalions of tactical units with an estimated 175,000 men, along with tanks, artillery and equipment."
The deployment of Russian troops along the border with Ukraine is already massive. Around 100,000 soldiers are said to be there at the moment; Satellite images and recordings from Russian social media accounts document the deployment of the military. Among them are particularly large troops of the 41st Army - whose headquarters are in Novosibirsk, thousands of kilometers from the border with Crimea. The 20th Army is also in combat readiness - it is stationed northeast of the border with Ukraine anyway. It is reinforced by units of the first Guards Armored Army, which is gathering near Pogonowo. The 8th Army in the area around Russia's southernmost metropolis Rostov-on-Don is also ready for action. The shifts of troops are so far-reaching that they dragged on for months and had to be planned for a long time.
After a conversation with US President Joe Biden, Moscow published a comprehensive catalog of demands, including the exclusion of Ukraine from joining NATO and the abandonment of all NATO military activities in Ukraine and the rest of Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
One thing is certain: a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be militarily possible.
Whether Putin is planning an invasion or the deployment of troops is just an impressive threatening gesture cannot be said with any certainty at the moment.
How could an attack on Ukraine take place?
That is speculation, of course. But some experts believe that Russia could militarily take eastern Ukraine in less than an hour. Due to Western training and support, the Ukrainian army is no longer in such a desperate state as it was in 2014, when the war in eastern Ukraine began. Overall, however, Ukraine hardly has more troops than Russia is currently gathering in the border region.
The head of the Ukrainian military intelligence, General Kyrylo Budanov, revealed his nightmare vision of an invasion to the New York Times: air and rocket attacks, which initially attack ammunition depots and ground troops, would render the Ukrainian military incapable of action within a very short time, a coordinated defense would already be then hardly possible.
After that, the responsibility lies with the commanders at the front.
"You will hold out while there are still bullets," said Budanov.
But without supplies, no army in the world could withstand such an attack.
An alternative to a direct invasion would be to step up the fighting in eastern Ukraine, led by the pro-Russian separatists, in which they are militarily supported by Russia.
A complete takeover of Ukraine remains unlikely, even if Russia were to station more troops along the borders.
Rather, it is probably about the control of eastern Ukraine, where Russian is spoken by the majority - that is, areas east of the Dnieper River.
There are cities like Kharkiv with its 1.5 million inhabitants;
So it could be a division of Ukraine.
But how far the military targets could actually reach in the event of an attack is largely open.
What are the roots of the conflict?
In 1991 Ukraine declared its independence from the Soviet Union, which soon fell apart. From Vladimir Putin's point of view, the independence of Ukraine and the collapse of the Soviet Union represent a historical “tragedy”, “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century. At that time, "historic Russia," which had been built up over a thousand years, fell apart, he said recently. That is why 25 million Russians now live abroad - and Russia simply cannot afford "to leave these people to their fate at will". In the summer, Putin wrote in an essay that Ukraine is not a separate state at all.
Independent Ukraine continued to orient itself largely towards Russia, but in 2013 and 2014 a popular uprising, the so-called Euromaidan, broke out over the dispute over an EU association agreement. Pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych was overthrown in February, and shortly afterwards Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula after an internationally unrecognized referendum. In the eastern Ukrainian Donbass, pro-Russian separatists proclaimed two "People's Republics"; they were militarily supported by Russia. Since then, more than 13,000 people have died in the war in Donbass. In 2015, Ukraine and Russia concluded the Minsk Agreement through European mediation - however, there have been disputes about its implementation since then; the war went on nonetheless, albeit with reduced intensity. At last, if there was no peace,then at least a certain calm in the conflict that has been smoldering for seven years. But Russia does not want to accept the Ukrainian rapprochement with NATO, its aspiration to join the European Union and joint military exercises with European and US troops - it rejects the western involvement of its neighboring state. In the spring, Putin moved troops to the Ukrainian border - albeit to a much lesser extent.In the spring, Putin moved troops to the Ukrainian border - albeit to a much lesser extent.In the spring, Putin moved troops to the Ukrainian border - albeit to a much lesser extent.
How does Russia base its security concerns in Ukraine?
Putin fears that Ukraine will move closer to the West, become a kind of American military base or one day join NATO.
In surveys, around two thirds of Ukrainians recently spoke out in favor of joining the EU and more than half in favor of joining NATO - although there are no concrete plans for either.
Putin has expressed concern several times that NATO could deploy medium-range missiles in Ukraine that could reach Moscow "in seven to ten minutes", or in the case of hypersonic weapons in "five minutes."
Such weapon systems do not currently exist in Ukraine or in the European NATO countries - while Russia has mobile medium-range missiles that could reach European territory.
The West has so far been reluctant to deliver weapons to Ukraine: The US has mainly supplied anti-tank missiles and equipment, while Turkey has sold combat drones.
In the past few weeks Russia has continuously expanded its demands on Ukraine: First of all, it demanded assurances that NATO membership would be ruled out, and the stationing of modern Western weapons systems should also be prohibited.
But recently Russia published two pre-formulated agreements with NATO and the USA - in fact, it calls for NATO to be dismantled from before the eastward expansion in 1997: For example, no troops should be allowed to be stationed in the states of the former Warsaw Pact;
it is highly unlikely that the West will accept such demands.
According to Putin, Russia feels "betrayed" by NATO's eastward expansion and relies on verbal promises.
However, in the negotiations on German unity there were no legally binding commitments about the role of NATO after reunification.
The West emphasizes the freedom of alliances and the right of self-determination of countries like Poland or the Baltic states that have joined NATO - Russia sees its historical sphere of influence violated.
Putin publicly questioned Ukraine's own statehood repeatedly;
the Soviet Union was actually "historical Russia", and in eastern Ukraine a "genocide" is taking place against Russian-speaking citizens (for which there is no evidence whatsoever).
The increasing western orientation of Ukraine is, however, also a consequence of the Russian annexation of Crimea and the support for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine - as well as the threats from Moscow.
What is the Minsk Agreement and what is its role?
The Minsk Agreement is an international agreement that is actually supposed to guarantee peace or at least a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine.
To date, however, the agreement has only been partially implemented.
Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of violating the agreements.
On February 12, 2015, representatives of Ukraine, Russia, the self-appointed People's Republics in Donetsk and Luhansk and Heidi Tagliavini for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) signed the agreement.
The parties agreed on 13 points:
1. A ceasefire in the previously contested Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
2. The withdrawal of all heavy weapons from a security zone
3. The OSCE's review of the ceasefire and withdrawal
4. A new law by which Ukraine grants the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts a special status and enables elections there
5. An amnesty for those involved in the conflict
6. The release of all prisoners
7. Humanitarian aid to the needy
8. The rebuilding of economic and social relationships so that pensions can be paid and taxes collected in the conflict area
9. The complete control of the Ukrainian state border by Ukrainian forces - also on the border with Russia
10. The withdrawal of all foreign units - which was aimed particularly at Russian mercenaries
11. A constitutional reform in Ukraine that decentralizes power
12. Elections in separatist territories
13. Another exchange with the so-called contact group, which consists of representatives from Ukraine, Russia and the OSCE.
The agreement thus adopted points that all those involved had already signed in 2014 with the "Minsk Protocol".
The protocol is therefore also referred to as "Minsk I" and the agreement of February 2015 as "Minsk II".
However, even after the Minsk Agreement, there were still exchanges of fire and deaths in the conflict area.
In recent weeks, Russia has accused Ukraine of violating the deal by using drones on the line of contact;
in addition, Ukraine has never legally implemented the autonomy of the territories in the east.
Ukraine, for its part, accused Russia of violating the agreement by using heavy weapons on the line of contact.
The Minsk Agreement has been criticized by Ukrainian and Western experts because it does not oblige Russia to do anything except for the withdrawal of heavy weapons, but rather imposes almost all obligations on either Kiev or the pro-Russian separatists - but not Moscow.
How is the West reacting to the threat of invasion, what can it do?
NATO has called on Putin to use the upcoming holidays to withdraw his armed forces from the Ukrainian border. Russia has the opportunity to ensure a peaceful and relaxing Christmas for everyone, said Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in an interview with the dpa news agency. To do this, the country must reduce tensions and withdraw its troops.
In view of the Russian deployment on the border with Ukraine, NATO is also planning to strengthen its own troops on the Alliance's eastern border. As SPIEGEL reported on the weekend, US General Tod D. Wolters, the Supreme Allied Commander for Europe (Saceur for short), recently proposed in a secret video link with the military chiefs of the partner nations, similar to what happened in the Baltic States and Poland in Romania and Bulgaria to expand NATO's presence through the Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) mission. Accordingly, NATO is said to have increased the operational readiness of the rapid reaction force. For the time being, however, Bulgaria has spoken out against stationing troops in its own country.
Meanwhile, Russia has announced initial talks with the US and NATO for January.
With a view to the Russian demands for additional security guarantees from NATO, Stoltenberg recently appeared ready to talk - but rejected ideas that NATO could, for example, refrain from accepting Ukraine.
Meanwhile, further sanctions are being discussed in the EU.
These could potentially be imposed quite quickly.
For example, it only took Brussels a few days to take punitive measures in response to the annexation of Crimea.
New sanctions could then affect Putin's immediate environment.
There is also a particularly tough proposal that Russia could be excluded from Swift and thus from international payments.
What role does the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline play?
The controversial Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline is intended to transport gas directly from Russia to Germany - thereby bypassing the existing pipelines that run through Ukraine and Belarus.
This gives Russia political leverage: it can reduce gas deliveries through Ukraine to Western Europe - this would reduce the economically important income from gas transfers for Kiev.
The discussion now is whether Germany would stop the commissioning of the largely completed pipeline as a punitive measure in the event of a Russian attack on Ukraine: The USA indicate that it has received corresponding assurances from Berlin;
the new federal government has not yet made a clear statement on this.
It is withdrawing from the ongoing administrative approval process - because the pipeline is mostly operated by Gazprom and the gas is supplied by Gazprom, EU regulations are likely to be violated: These prescribe that the owners of the pipelines do not deal with the suppliers of the gas flowing through them Gas may be identical.
Eastern European countries in particular fought Nord Stream 2 from the start for geopolitical reasons, and the US government is also opposing it and has issued sanctions against the companies involved.
The old federal government under Angela Merkel had long described the pipeline as a purely private-sector project and denied it any political dimension.
The pipeline is majority owned by the Russian company Gazprom, with the German companies Wintershall and E.on Ruhrgas as well as Dutch, Austrian and French companies involved. The former SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schröder played an important role in the construction of the pipeline; he is chairman of the shareholders' committee of Nord Stream AG. Manuela Schwesig, SPD Prime Minister of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, even helped with a state-owned foundation to circumvent the sanctions against Nord Stream 2.
The SPD has traditionally supported the pipeline, the FDP and above all the Greens reject it for geopolitical and climate policy reasons;
This is one of the reasons why the new federal government has difficulties in agreeing on a position.
Russia has already shown this winter that it is ready to use the pipeline as a means of pressure: it has reduced gas deliveries and announced that it will only increase them again if Nord Stream 2 is commissioned.
How is the new federal government behaving?
The German-Russian relationship is currently being burdened several times: On the one hand, Putin is increasing the pressure on the West almost daily, above all to exclude Ukraine from NATO membership. On the other hand, the verdict in the Tiergarten murder is causing tension between Berlin and Moscow. The government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has not yet found a clear line on how to deal with Russia.
Scholz himself follows the motto that a European, not a German Ostpolitik is needed.
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens), on the other hand, has already made clear statements several times and threatened Russia with "harsh diplomatic and economic consequences" should it invade Ukraine.
Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) recently brought new sanctions against Russia into play.
"Right now we have to target Putin and those around him," she said a few days ago.
Overall, the federal government relies on dialogue.
It is of the utmost importance that Russia returns to the negotiating table, Baerbock said on Wednesday.
With material from the agencies.