Nuclear talks between the superpowers and Iran are progressing, and are likely to reach a stage where decisions will be reached.
Borrowing from the world of football, the probing phase is over, and each side is more or less familiar with the boundaries of the other side.
The Iranians, the masterminds of the negotiations, tried to condition the continued contacts on the removal of the sanctions, and were denied. This time the Europeans (especially Germany, France and Britain) seem to be more involved in the negotiations, The other powers It seems that despite the mutual threats and the feeling that negotiations are running aground, an agreement will eventually be reached that will limit the Iranian enrichment rate, and Tehran will get what they want and most of the draconian sanctions will be lifted.
Nuclear talks in Vienna, Photo: AFP
Iran's long-term strategic interest is to seize nuclear weapons, but in the reality that has been created - the sanctions and the faltering economic situation threaten the survival of the government in the short term, and require action that will resolve the sanctions and improve the economy. In the religion of Islam, the method of temporarily relinquishing goals, in order to reach a long-term strategic decision, is recognized. The US, led by the faltering Biden in the polls, needs an achievement that will improve its situation. The Chinese and Russians, who in any case do not comply with the sanctions bans, will be happy to return to legitimate deals with Iran - so all in all, all parties have an interest in reaching an agreement.
Israel is in the most difficult situation.
If an agreement is reached, Iranian terrorism will return, through funds released after the sanctions are lifted, raging across the Middle East, and Iranian influence will intensify.
It is likely that the situation in Syria will also change, and the Iranians will exert greater pressure to drive a stake of influence in this country.
The nuclear threat will not be removed, and it will be very close to realization.
The Iranians will be able to secretly advance several issues in the military program, which will bring them closer to achieving nuclear capability in a short time at a time they see fit.
The sword is almost on the neck
As for an Israeli attack: Israel has the ability to attack Iran, and it will do so with no choice but to "put the sword on its neck."
We seem to be very close to this hour.
We can not count on American military involvement, which is unlikely to come.
When Israel faced a significant security threat in the past and took the initiative, the IDF acted successfully and the threat was removed. The preparations now being made are intended to improve the ability to attack in order to achieve an improved attack plan.
"Mighty" F-35 aircraft of the Air Force, Photo: IDF Spokesman
The IDF should receive a clear directive from the Israeli government, which defines the goal: significant and severe damage to the nuclear program, and marking the date of the attack - fall 2022. Despite the difficulty, the time seems to have come, and the IDF is required to prepare a plan with the intelligence community.
The IDF has a very good operational capability to harm the nuclear program. The program will be diverse, and will include elements that will surprise the Iranians and cause great damage to the nuclear sites and air defense systems.
At the same time, it is necessary to prepare for an Iranian response that will come from Iranian soil, and probably also from Hezbollah.
There is no reason to get anxious - the talk of war with Iran is exaggerated.
Israel has been at war with it for more than two decades, and the IDF has the ability to continue to deal with the Iranian threat and severely harm Hezbollah.
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