2500, the apocalyptic year caused by climate change 0:45
(CNN Spanish) -
Are we in time to save the planet?
After the droughts, heat waves, fires and floods of 2021, the answer is not at all obvious.
Some things, whatever we do, will never be the same again, according to the experts, but we still have a chance of avoiding the worst catastrophe if we act quickly and with ambition to face two crises that, in reality, can be understood as one: that of the climate and that of biodiversity.
At the end of 2021, the balance is not auspicious. "We are running by leaps and bounds towards the abyss," Simone Lucatello, a research professor at the Mora-Conacyt institute in Mexico and a member of the UN panel of experts on climate change, known by its acronym in English as IPCC, tells CNN.
The figures do not allow us to hide, or even make up, the reality: we should avoid that the increase in temperature of the planet exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels to avoid the worst effects of the climate crisis and, nevertheless, even With the commitments made at the COP26 summit, the world is heading towards a warming of 2.4 degrees Celsius, if not more, according to an analysis by the Climate Action Tracker organization.
And, if commitments are not met, the figure would rise to 2.7 degrees Celsius.
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If this happens, we all know what awaits us: more common droughts, floods and heat waves, and a rise in sea level that will displace millions of people from their homes, to name just a few of the expected effects.
The key findings of the UN report on the climate crisis
"It is not excessive or forced scaremongering. The science is very clear and has said it through climate models and what we know," explains Lucatello.
We have two, three more generations "before this really starts to get out of control," he synthesizes.
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And if we manage to stop the rise in temperatures, there are still irreversible effects, according to a key report published by the IPCC this year: the ice sheets will continue to melt and the sea will continue to advance whatever we do.
The only variable that is under our control is how much.
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Change the question
Instead of answering that question, María José Villanueva, Conservation Director for WWF Mexico, invites us to change it.
It is no longer just about saving the planet but about "saving ourselves, because the way things are, the one who will end up losing is us," he synthesizes.
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What to do?
Emission reduction
Billed with great fanfare as the event of the year with the potential to seal our destiny on the face of the Earth, COP26 brought world leaders together this year in Glasgow, Scotland, with results that many would call failure.
ANALYSIS |
COP26 concluded with a climate agreement.
In this he succeeded and in this the summit failed
"For some it has been a failure, for others it has been what we could expect with the tone of the negotiations," says Lucatello, explaining that in recent years, especially since the summit that was held in Cancun in 2010 onwards, it has there has been a "downward trend in terms of countries' ambitions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions", the main cause of global warming.
The ruling is clear: greenhouse gas emissions - carbon but also methane, which has a short-term warming power more than 80 times greater than carbon dioxide - must be reduced by almost 27,000 million metric tons. per year to limit global warming to 1.5 ° C by 2030, according to Climate Action Tracker, but for that year, according to the agreements reached, emissions will continue to be approximately double what is needed.
A total of 40 countries have net zero emissions targets that represent 85% of global emissions reductions, but only 6% are supported by concrete plans, according to Climate Action Tracker.
COP26 for the first time blamed fossil fuels for the crisis, but only committed to their gradual elimination.
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And in the context of this trajectory, we must advance in mitigation measures, but above all in adaptation, says Lucatello, because with the planned emission reductions, with countries whose commitments have a horizon of 40, 50 years, to a certain extent already there is no room for mitigation, we must strengthen adaptation that today, he says, we still "don't know how to do it" at the global level.
Funds to face the crisis
In fact, the estimated costs of adapting to the worst effects of rising temperatures in low-income countries are five to 10 times greater than the amount of money currently flowing into those regions, according to a UN report.
Rich countries pledged US $ 100 billion annually by 2020, and did not deliver, but according to the agency this is no longer enough: adaptation costs for low-income countries will reach between US $ 140,000 and US $ 300,000 million annually by 2030.
Two crises that are actually one
Today the planet faces two great crises, the climatic one and the one of loss of biodiversity, but in reality "they are the same", explains to CNN Jeffrey Parrish, general director of Protection of the Oceans, the Earths and the Water of The Nature Conservancy.
"In 2022 we have to understand that they are the same crisis, but also that nature is part of the solution for climate change," he says.
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This is what in environmental science is called "nature-based solutions."
And it is that taking care of the ecosystems will not only allow us to preserve the biodiversity strongly threatened by climate change, but also to sequester a portion of the carbon that we release.
"Nature is in many of the solutions we need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions," explains Villanueva.
Alert for carbon emissions in the Amazon 0:44
Make use of the "amazing machine" that is at our disposal
Parrish explains it with this example: "There is an incredible machine. This machine is going to help us address climate change. It is a machine that absorbs greenhouse gases and produces oxygen, and also maintains biodiversity."
Sounds like a science fiction thing, doesn't it?
Well it is not.
They are simply the trees.
(The Amazon, for example, which is the largest rainforest in the world, absorbs billions of tons of carbon dioxide a year, but due to deforestation some parts have already started to emit more than they absorb.)
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Nature has also been the "dam" that has prevented us from even now being in a worse crisis situation than it already is.
In this context, the goal we must work towards is known as "30X30", says Parrish: "Science says very clearly that we have to protect 30% of nature before the end of the 2030s."
To achieve this, he believes, the action of a single actor no matter how powerful he may be.
What we need is, in his words, a "radical collaboration".
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Thoroughly
We have to do more, much more, says Lucatello.
And the change we need goes beyond reducing emissions, protecting biodiversity.
"What is being fundamentally questioned is the development model that we have as countries and as people," he explains, which is why awareness and action are needed at all levels.
OPINION |
It's not just carbon emissions.
Human failures are also ruining the climate
It is not about placing responsibility exclusively on ordinary citizens, but our role cannot be ignored.
And what we must do cannot be reduced to so-called environmental education, he says, but rather implies a "much deeper" awareness that leads us to better management of resources.
It's like a match, he explains: you have to take care of it to keep the flame burning for as long as possible.
And, in turn, we must bet on having "more impact in terms of the actions we do as a group," Lucatello explains.
Villanueva, for his part, specifically points to consumption: we must change our consumption patterns and, through our purchases, we can also influence the production models of companies.
Vegetarian?
Rather Planetary: How Small Changes to Your Diet Can Help Save the Planet
Cultural change, for its part, must influence the formulation of government policies.
The great teaching of nature
Do we have an example of success on hand that we can take as a reference?
In the environmental literature, Lucatello explains, the Montreal Protocol has been taken as a model, which addressed the emission of chlorofluorocarbons responsible for the hole in the ozone layer.
However, the challenge before us is not comparable, it is an "unprecedented" challenge, says Lucatello, because it is not just about reducing emissions, but it goes to "the roots of our development".
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Room for hope always remains.
And, as Villanueva says, "if nature has taught us something, it is that it is resilient."
But we will have to do a lot on our part.
