IHK boss: "Need 1000 new wind turbines a year"

Created: 12/29/2021, 7:50 PM

From: Corinna Maier

IHK General Manager Dr.

Manfred Goessl.

© IHK

How does Germany manage the energy transition?

And where are the greatest risks for companies in Bavaria?

IHK boss Gößl gives answers in the Merkur interview.

Munich - The Bavarian economy has proven to be quite robust in the corona pandemic.

But in 2022, in addition to Corona and the shortage of skilled workers, one topic will come to the fore that may burst any growth hopes: the energy supply after the exit from nuclear power and coal.

We spoke to the general manager of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry for Munich and Upper Bavaria, Manfred Gößl.

Energy transition in Bavaria: "Energy prices, together with a shortage of skilled workers, are the greatest risk"

The economic research institutes have all scaled back their forecasts for the next year and are now more pessimistic.

What do you expect for the Bavarian economy?

We pointed out in October that we consider the forecasts to be too optimistic.

The companies had already reported to us that there were devastating delivery problems.

That was not yet included in the forecasts.

So there is no upturn next year?

As long as Corona is so present, there can be growth, but not a boom.

We have to assume at any time that the pandemic will result in regional lockdowns, such as in China.

Even because of individual corona cases, entire ports or production facilities are closed there.

As long as we don't really have Corona under control, companies will have to continue to prepare for exceptionally high levels of uncertainty. 

What role do energy prices play?

The rising energy prices, together with the shortage of skilled workers, are the greatest risk for companies.

This is what our surveys show.

But: security of supply always comes first.

This applies to materials as well as to energy.

Nowhere is the energy price higher than in Germany.

Our energy-intensive industry continues to lose competitiveness.

Now there are also price increases for materials of 20, 30 or 40 percent.

This is exclusively due to the Corona-related break in the supply chains.

We all don't know that at all: that we are running out of material, that we have to cope with a shortage economy.

IHK boss Gößl:

When it comes to energy, a lot has been planned.

Withdrawal from coal and nuclear energy and at the same time Germany should become climate neutral.

Can it be done?

Difficult.

We support the government when it speeds up climate protection.

But you have to be clear about what that means.

For example with wind energy.

Here the stock has to be tripled within nine years, which means more than 1000 new wind turbines in Germany per year.

In the case of photovoltaics, the factor for the installed power is even four.

In addition, there is a minimum growth of 20 gigawatts in natural gas power plants.

That roughly corresponds to the output of 20 nuclear power plants.

The line capacity must double by 2030.

So: can we do it?

Certainly not with the current procedures.

Even if the planning and approval times are accelerated: Where do all the specialists come from to lay the cables, even bury them?

Wind power in particular is often very controversial on site.

Yes, it's a matter of acceptance.

When you drive through Upper Franconia, you can see fields full of wind turbines to the right and left.

Southern Bavaria will then also have to prepare for a changed landscape.

To this end, approval procedures must be changed in such a way that lawsuits can no longer delay projects for years.

A fundamental administrative reform is necessary and desirable - I am curious to see whether the Germans, with their attention to detail and individual consideration, will be ready to do so.

From an economic point of view, I can say: Yes, that's exactly how it should be done, speed beats perfection, otherwise the energy transition will not work.

Why are the companies so committed?

The companies need huge amounts of green energy.

Your customers demand climate neutrality.

This is also increasingly becoming a criterion for financing.

You will also never have seen the economy oppose the construction of renewable energy sources.

Now we have to take the citizens with us.

In this regard, the Greens may have a special role in government.

The taxpayer will have to pay for a lot.

IHK boss Manfred Gößl on the challenges of the energy transition.

Many now consider the rapid exit from nuclear power to be a mistake.

They also?

The question is superfluous because the operators of the nuclear power plants all affirm that the phase-out is irreversible for them.

The train left.

This means that nuclear power will cease to exist in Germany, as in Bavaria, from the end of 2022.

Nuclear power is currently still the most important source of electricity production in Bavaria with over a quarter.

Coal, which is still indispensable for the base load, should then be eliminated in 2030.

This leaves us with the maximum amount of renewables, supplemented by natural gas power plants as a bridge.

Many hope for hydrogen.

Hydrogen will only play a significant role in the 2030s.

That is why all current studies come to the conclusion: natural gas power plants are indispensable as a transition.

We have to rebuild them in such a way that they can later be hydrogenated.

Here, too, the question arises: On which plots are being built?

With which skilled workers is all of this built?

What is ordered from the industry and when?

Where do we get the raw materials and materials from?

Much of what we will have to obtain largely from China or from authoritarian states in Africa.

Only federal politicians can resolve this conflict of goals and must then set priorities. 

Is it wise to depend on Russia for natural gas?

No it is not.

You have to try to secure several suppliers.

That was, is and will remain political art.

With the shutdown of nuclear and coal-fired power plants, foreign policy is more than ever foreign energy policy. 

Climate and energy transition: IHK boss warns of problems with power supply - Bavaria's autarky ended

Can you avoid electricity imports?

No, we see that strikingly on cloudy autumn days. Renewables currently only create a rate of 20 percent in electricity generation. But: the neighboring European countries are also increasingly relying on renewables, and in future they will have less electricity production on such days. And the French nuclear power is primarily produced for France and not for Germany. I am not familiar with the grand concept of Europe-wide security of supply with simultaneous climate neutrality. One thing is clear: security of supply must be guaranteed, otherwise there will be immeasurable damage to costs, acceptance and trust. That is why, in addition to fluctuating renewables, we need a base load-capable energy supply. Thanks to nuclear power, Bavaria was self-sufficient in electricity production.In the coming years we will be dependent on electricity supplies from northern Germany and our European neighbors. 

Who pays for all of this?

The companies are already suffering from the high electricity prices. 

The state, i.e. the taxpayer, will have to pay a lot.

For example, compensation for the difference in the German electricity price compared to the world market price, otherwise the energy-intensive industry in Germany can no longer sustain itself.

Industrial electricity on the world market costs four cents, the price of electricity paid by a local medium-sized company is 18 cents per kilowatt-hour. 

Are companies already turning their backs on the country?

Companies that need a lot of energy prefer abroad for large investments.

There are well-paid jobs there, in the chemical, pharmaceutical, metal and basic industries.

That is why we should want to keep these industries in the country, just like the glass and ceramics industry in Eastern and Northern Bavaria.

How long will it take for the situation to ease?

Until the electricity prices fall back to a competitive level here.

We are now experiencing the ramp-up of a new system.

But that will take a good 20 years.

And only in the second half will we know whether the experiment was a success.

Interview: Corinna Maier