After the new crown pneumonia (COVID-19) variant virus Omicron has spread rapidly in many places around the world, the outside world has been paying attention to its lethality. A group of South African scholars announced a study on December 28 and investigated in Tswa, South Africa. In Tshwane (Tshwane), the new wave of epidemic data in the area where Omicron was originally discovered, and compared with previous waves, it was found that in the new round of epidemics, the death rate and severe illness rate were lower than in the past.
Researchers even believe that if this happens globally, Omicron may be a harbinger of the end of the pandemic.
The study was published on the website of International Journal of Infectious Diseases on December 28. The study investigated the data of patients with new coronary pneumonia in a large hospital in Tshwane, Gauteng. Waves) and the past few rounds of the epidemic, involving 466 patients admitted to the hospital from November 14, 2021 during the 4th wave, and those who stayed in the hospital during the past few rounds of the epidemic and were admitted to the hospital after May 4, 2020 3976 patients, studied and evaluated the record of 98 patients at the highest bed occupancy rate.
The results of the study found that in the fourth wave of the epidemic triggered by Omicron, the mortality and severe illness rates of hospital patients were lower than those of the past few rounds. Among them, the mortality rate of hospitalized patients was 4.5%, and the number of past epidemics was as high as 21.3%. ; In the new wave of epidemics, the rate of severe cases requiring admission to the intensive care unit is 1%, as for the past epidemics, it was 4.3%; the hospital stay is relatively short, the latest number is 4 days, the number of days is lower than the 8.8 days of the past epidemic .
This South African study was published on the website of the International Journal of Infectious Diseases on December 28 (website screenshot)
It is worth noting that the patients in the fourth wave of the epidemic were relatively young, with a median age of 39 years, while the median age of the surveyed persons in the past several rounds of epidemics was 49 years old.
According to Newsweek, the South African researchers in charge of the investigation believe that “there are clear signs that South Africa’s case and hospital admission rates may decline further in the coming weeks.” They argue that if this pattern continues and is Repeatedly happening around the world, in the future, we may see cases and death rates completely "decoupled". Omicron may be a harbinger of the end of the pandemic.
The picture shows people in Johannesburg, South Africa on December 14, 2021. They all wear masks to prevent the epidemic (Reuters)
Professor Mark Jit, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, who did not participate in the study, commented that there are indeed many reports showing that compared with Delta, the disease caused by Omicron is serious. The degree is low, but he also said that he still needs to carefully interpret the research results, because Omicron is more likely to infect people who have been infected or vaccinated. The reason for their milder illness may be that they have some antibody protection. In addition, factors such as age and the patient's own condition must also be considered.
He said that the research did show that the scale of the "Omicron wave" would not be as large as predicted in the worst-case scenario, but he reminded that if there is a major outbreak of Omicron, it will still be enough to cause many people to be hospitalized and die.
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