Jérôme Sainte-Marie is the founder of PollingVox, a research and consulting company specializing in public opinion issues. He has just published
Le Bloc populaire, at
Éditions du Cerf.
LE FIGARO. - Pre-presidential campaign, establishment of the health pass, resumption of the epidemic with the Omicron variant… The past year has been dense. In your opinion, which event changed France the most in 2021? In what ?
Jérôme SAINTE-MARIE. -
Obviously, the health crisis marked 2021, but in the continuation of the previous year and in a finally trivialized way. If it is a question of citing an emblematic event of what France is today and which will have had a significant impact on our collective mood, I would rather retain the so-called crisis of the Australian submarines, that is to say - say the breach of a promise to purchase presented as the contract of the century. It seems to me that this announcement on September 15 crystallized the doubts, not to say the existential anguish, felt by many of our compatriots. This failure is of course not only commercial,it illustrates a weakening of the country's position on the world stage and echoes the deindustrialization process denounced by almost all of the political class. Behind the immediate financial loss for Naval Group looms a form of downgrading of the country, a very real feeling, whether justified or not, and heavy with electoral consequences. This event, which occurred in 2021, is not in itself a turning point in its intensity, but by the resonance it finds in other setbacks in French high-tech industry, we are thinking here of the Alstom affair, it indeed seems to me likely to make a lasting impression on public opinion.and heavy with electoral consequences. This event, which occurred in 2021, is not in itself a turning point in its intensity, but by the resonance it finds in other setbacks in French high-tech industry, we are thinking here of the Alstom affair, it indeed seems to me likely to make a lasting impression on public opinion.and heavy with electoral consequences. This event, which occurred in 2021, is not in itself a turning point in its intensity, but by the resonance it finds in other setbacks in French high-tech industry, we are thinking here of the Alstom affair, it indeed seems to me likely to make a lasting impression on public opinion.
The implementation of the health pass saw the birth of an anti-pass movement, a heterogeneous mixture of protesters of the “yellow vests” type and members of the middle classes. Does this fact illustrate the archipelago of our society as theorized by Jérôme Fourquet? How do you analyze this phenomenon?
As you note, there is a profound difference between the phenomenon of "yellow vests" on the one hand and anti-pass mobilizations on the other, even if in both cases observers may have been surprised by their intensity. Three years ago, the gatherings and the occupations of roundabouts were very marked in their sociology, with an obvious over-representation of modest workers in the private sector, salaried or self-employed. In the summer of 2021, the demonstrations were much more interclassist, which is also very logical since they were not based on an issue of purchasing power but on an almost intangible cause. I do not see very well, however, how this could correspond to a hypothetical "archipelago":there have always been mobilizations on various issues, and in the mid-time of the 1980s, for example, one could attend a few weeks later demonstrations relating to the school quarrel as well as movements in opposition to the restructuring of the steel industry. France is a country where we demonstrate a lot and by all means, this is nothing new. Social polarization constitutes a reality on which everyone agrees, it seems to me, without this preventing us from being able to come together on transversal themes, such as that of individual freedoms.opposition to the restructuring of the steel industry. France is a country where we demonstrate a lot and by all means, this is nothing new. Social polarization constitutes a reality on which everyone agrees, it seems to me, without this preventing us from being able to come together on transversal themes, such as that of individual freedoms.opposition to the restructuring of the steel industry. France is a country where we demonstrate a lot and by all means, this is nothing new. Social polarization constitutes a reality on which everyone agrees, it seems to me, without this preventing us from being able to come together on transversal themes, such as that of individual freedoms.
Can it be of great significance during the presidential election? To what extent?
Behind the curtain of demonstrations and controversies over the health past, the latter very present in the media as on social networks, the major political fact borne by the health crisis seems to me to be the devitalization of public debate.
After the intense social news of the first two years of the quinquennium, the French are placed in an artificial situation of atomization, each one being referred to his health and that of his relatives, to his body and, so to speak, to his skin.
The place taken by the exchanges on the quality of vaccines, the evolution of the contamination curves, the relevance of such or such public health measure [...] induces a distraction of the public in relation to the major challenges of the future from the country.
Jerome Sainte-Marie
The massive abstention in the interim ballots owes a lot to this aberrant climate.
The place taken by the exchanges on the quality of vaccines, the evolution of the contamination curves, the relevance of such or such public health measure, with a degree of precision illustrated by the last televised intervention of the Prime Minister, is of course. legitimate, but it induces a distraction of public opinion from the major challenges for the future of the country.
There is little time left before the great democratic meeting of the French, next April, to restore the hierarchy of debates.
The Covid-19 will have produced a shock of depoliticization.
These demonstrations, little supported by the majority of the population, have they strengthened Emmanuel Macron?
On the strict level of public opinion and its measure, the pandemic has resulted in a few months in a marked upturn in the popularity of the executive. Two years ago, we were in the midst of a confrontation between supporters and opponents of the pension reform led by the government of Édouard Philippe. Since then, the level of support for the President of the Republic has increased by around ten points. Emmanuel Macron is not popular in the sense that a majority of French people would have a good opinion of it in the exercise of his functions, but he is much more so than were his two predecessors, François Hollande and previously Nicolas Sarkozy, at this stage of their tenure. The Head of State has appeared to many French people as the guarantor of the payment of salaries and pensions,rightly or wrongly taking advantage of having over-drained a part of the European recovery plan to France. Candidate for reform in 2017, he will have become the president of guarantees. Even if it would be an illusion, it remains a great electoral advantage.
On the political level, Eric Zemmour's breakthrough in the polls has reshuffled the cards: the duel announced between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen is now uncertain ...
The Zemmour phenomenon at the end of the summer is like an explosion of opinion. To find an equivalent, we must curiously evoke the sharp rise of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the polls of intention to vote from mid-March 2017, bringing it in five weeks to nearly 20%. We will immediately notice the peculiarity of Eric Zemmour's breakthrough, which took place at a time when opinions remain very volatile and when citizens are not yet really in the position of the voter. We have also seen since a decline in voting intentions. On the one hand Marine Le Pen has been able to stabilize its electoral base, with a marked popular tone, on the other hand the classic right has succeeded in its process of appointing the presidential candidate.The surge in voting intentions in favor of Valérie Pécresse is another indicator of the fluidity of the virtual balance of power, those measured by the polls, as long as the electoral offer is not stabilized nor the French massively interested in the monitoring of the campaign, which usually takes place two or three months before the presidential election. The fact remains that for the moment Eric Zemmour's candidacy makes Marine Le Pen's situation more delicate, without causing the slightest harm to Emmanuel Macron: in current polls, he now passes the first round in first position and l 'wins in the deciding turn, particularly comfortable when he is opposed to the polemicist.electoral offer is not stabilized nor the French massively interested in the follow-up of the campaign, which generally occurs two or three months before the presidential election. The fact remains that for the moment Eric Zemmour's candidacy makes Marine Le Pen's situation more delicate, without causing the slightest harm to Emmanuel Macron: in current polls, he now passes the first round in first position and l 'wins in the deciding turn, particularly comfortable when he is opposed to the polemicist.electoral offer is not stabilized nor the French massively interested in the follow-up of the campaign, which generally occurs two or three months before the presidential election. The fact remains that for the moment Eric Zemmour's candidacy makes Marine Le Pen's situation more delicate, without causing the slightest harm to Emmanuel Macron: in current polls, he now passes the first round in first position and l 'wins in the deciding turn, particularly comfortable when he is opposed to the polemicist.without causing the slightest harm to Emmanuel Macron: in current polls, he now passes the first round in first position and wins in the decisive round, in a particularly comfortable way when he is opposed to the polemicist.without causing the slightest harm to Emmanuel Macron: in current polls, he now passes the first round in first position and wins in the decisive round, in a particularly comfortable way when he is opposed to the polemicist.
The elite bloc that was formed around Emmanuel Macron in 2017, is it now divided between Macron and Zemmour?
The elite bloc only exists in the strict sense around Emmanuel Macron, insofar as it is formed by a progressive ideology defying the cleavage between left and right. It is supported by a liberal and Europhile project, in the acceptance of globalization in all its forms. The sociological profile of the Macron vote in 2017 as well as of the voting intentions for 2022 is above all marked by strong support from the managerial class and some of the retirees. This is not equivalent for the voting intentions in favor of Eric Zemmour, with a relatively interclassist profile but oriented to the right. Presented as an asset by the candidate, this may also constitute a weakness in the long term, in the context of polarization experienced by French society,except to consider that material considerations would count for nothing in the vote. Emmanuel Macron does not have this problem since he has been able to maintain a real coherence between the sociology of his supports, the adequacy of his ideology to it, and the composition of his teams, in which personalities from the left as well as the right.
The aura that surrounds Christiane Taubira in this movement is a good illustration of this ideological headlong rush, modest compensation for her sociological confinement.
Jerome Sainte-Marie
Another important fact: the left still seems unable to reach the second round despite the multiplication of candidates on the right. Can it still hope to bring together the “popular bloc”? What is your view on a possible candidacy of Christiane Taubira?
So much has been rightly said about the difficulties of the left that I would rather point out two realities more appreciable for it. First of all, the cumulative score of the candidates who claim to be established at a level close to that of 2017, that is to say a little more than a quarter of the voters. Remember that it is not very far from that of the right if we only take into account the candidates who are explicitly attached to it. Why such a maintenance, not always perceived? No doubt because the left maintains a sociological base which is both a guarantee and a limit: that of public expenditure, of which civil servants constitute the hard core. Cultural factors count, of course, but this prosaic as well as essential dimension, the origin of income,retain a major importance in the political choice. Suddenly, the left can always like the word “popular”, it cannot claim to constitute a popular bloc, having in particular great difficulty in convincing the workers of the private sector.
Uncomfortable with the movement of "yellow vests", contradictory in its relationship to globalization, the left survives through the exaltation of values and positions often far removed from the point of equilibrium of French society.
The aura that surrounds Christiane Taubira in this movement is a good illustration of this ideological headlong rush, modest compensation for her sociological confinement.