About two years after the corona plague was declared a global plague, this coming January may be the last time the mysterious virus will meet this definition.
Dr Nick Cotsworth, formerly the second most important official in Australia's federal epidemiological system, believes the epidemic will "come to an end" this month, at least on a practical level.
Cotsworth believes that precisely because of the rapid rate of spread of the omicron the world will receive a significant leap in the level of immunity of the population, along with the continued active immunization campaign, which will actually make the extent of the symptomatic epidemic a thing of the past, at least in numbers we know in the developed world.
However, as mentioned, the level of infection will not necessarily change, only the meaning when it comes to the need to provide a medical response.
Prof. Nachman Ash: "We have approved the fourth dose for those who have suppressed the immune system, we will consider expanding it to the entire population" // Photo: Moshe Ben Simhon
"In 2022, the Covid-19 epidemic (that is, the morbidity of symptomatic people after contracting the coronavirus) will come to an end," Cotsworth wrote in an opinion piece in the prestigious Sydney Morning Herald, published Saturday under the heading "Welcome to 2022, the year it ends This plague. "
He said, "The basic conditions for a pandemic (global epidemic), an infectious disease that is spreading globally among an unprepared population, will cease to exist. We will live a normal life again as optimistic and social creatures thriving on this planet, ".
Despite his optimistic remarks, it is clear from the tone of his writing that he attributes things to the vaccinated world accessible to the health system, so it is likely that if the global vaccine system continues to falter, parts of the world will still be seriously ill due to the virus.
Dr. Cotsworth's words are particularly encouraging in light of the surge that has taken place in recent weeks around the world because of the omicron strain, which has actually led to the current wave being the most severe in terms of daily infection rate (even if no dramatic change in hospitalization and infection).
Omicron spreads in New York // Photo: Reuters,
However, he warned that this is not the time to downshift the vaccination campaign.
He noted that the omicron "contributed" to the epidemic no longer having such a dramatic effect on symptoms, as recent studies show that the risk of the omicron leading to hospitalization among those infected is tens of percent lower compared to carriers infected with the Delta variant, and even lower in humans. Who was fully vaccinated.
On Thursday evening, South Africa - where the Omicron strain began to spread massively for the first time a few weeks ago - announced that the country had successfully made the wave without a dramatic increase in mortality.
In some places the wave has actually ended in the country, and in other parts of it it has simply already passed its peak.
Either way, the state decided on the immediate removal of the night curfew, because the practical implication is that there is no longer any justification for it.
Despite this, it is still too early to know if this is a result of the Christian “holiday effect” that affected the amount of tests or reports.
What is clear, according to state reports, is that the mortality that did occur during this wave was in the vast majority of unvaccinated or those who were not fully vaccinated.
The United States is also looking at January with optimism that this month the wave of omicrons will reach its peak and the hope is that even there there will be no significant burden when it comes to critically ill patients, as there was in South Africa.
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