The peak in the number of Covid-19 cases "
should peak in mid-January,
" epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet told the Journal du Dimanche.
While France is beating the daily case records, with more than 200,000 contaminations per day since Wednesday, the member of the Scientific Council estimates that "
the peak hospital could take place a week later (...).
Île-de-France will be the first to be affected,
”he said.
Read alsoThe new French surveillance strategy complicates the monitoring of the Omicron variant
In "
a hospital already severely affected by 22 months of health crisis
", the epidemiologist said to expect "
a huge logistical and organizational challenge
". However, he indicated that "
the increased use of teleworking will play an important role
" in reducing the level of this peak, as will "
the aeration or ventilation efforts
" of classes and canteens. He advocated stopping gym classes and indoor choirs for the time being.
The peak will be "of
limited duration
" because patients with this variant have a lower need for mechanical ventilation and stay in hospital for less.
Protection against severe forms is very well preserved with the vaccine, he recalled, "
of the order of 80-90% after a booster dose
".
Seasonal coronavirus
"
Ultimately, there is hope,
" however argued the epidemiologist.
"
Sars-CoV-2 will join other human seasonal coronaviruses that give us colds and tonsillitis every winter,
" he said.
“
We're not there yet.
We can expect that new variants will emerge but, as our immunity strengthens over time, either by natural infection or with booster doses of the vaccine, their capacity to give severe forms will decrease
”.
Read also Omicron variant: in France, the fear of a surge in January
The year 2022, according to Arnaud Fontanet, will bring new control tools, such as vaccines administered by intranasal route and the imminent arrival of the antiviral Paxlovid which will allow the treatment of people at risk of serious forms.
Thus, "the
more time passes, the less painful the waves will be
", further underlined the epidemiologist.
Even your optimistic but cautious Olivier Veran, also interviewed in the JDD, "
this fifth wave may be the last
"
,
has he said, indicating OMICRON is so contagious that it "
will result in immunity reinforced
”in the world.
