The first rule in preparing for situations of uncertainty is to think of several scenarios.
Consider a number of future options, and from them deduce the implications for the existing gaps in the present, and how it is desirable to prepare the system in light of this.
And just as we do not prepare only for the most serious scenario, so we do not prepare only for the most optimistic scenario.
In the Israeli government, for some time, only the ideal scenario has been chosen, and when it becomes clear that the reality is significantly more difficult, the perception of that reality is reshaped to suit the desired scenario. For example, at the height of the fourth wave, instead of producing a proper outline for schooling, running small classrooms, adding standards to tutors, installing appropriate ventilation and mandatory activating the Education Shield program (based on regular PCR tests) - decided to send everyone to do reliable home antigen tests Was in doubt and whose results were not communicated in a concentrated manner to the Ministry of Health. Thus was formed a reality of morbidity lower than the real one.
And from schools to the rest of the population. When the huge queues and waiting hours for PCR tests reappeared, instead of increasing the capacity, they encouraged rapid tests and even the abolition of isolations. Because when the government contains the morbidity, and worse - the dead, why even gather information on the number of the verified? Thus the fourth wave became a wave in which only the sick are interested. And when the number of patients is difficult and rebellion is also in the desired scenario, hide the home hospitalization data and the demand for oxygen machines - and hop! Again the numbers "get along".
Another three months passed, and instead of preparing the education system, increasing the number of tests, allocating budgets to the affected sectors of the economy and preparing assistance packages for the self-employed - that is, instead of providing solutions to problems and preparing for difficult realities - Prime Minister Naftali Bennett excitedly announced Plan B In fact, the project was set up by Gamzo in the second wave. That will be experienced without anyone doing anything for it.Significant crowd restrictions? Reducing public sector activity? Adding PCR tests? Real isolation policy with compensation? Nada.
"Duck and Cover" was the recommendation given to US citizens during the Cold War and the fear of a nuclear attack. In the face of a metaphorical barrage of missiles, the government recommends that citizens go on absorption alert. The tests and rearrange the data, until the desired scenario is achieved.Damn with the real reality.
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