By Paul A. Eisenstein -
NBC News
From a shortage of semiconductor chips to the closure of major assembly plants, to skyrocketing car prices and empty dealerships, 2021 was a year to remember for both automakers and consumers.
But there was also a surge in electric vehicle sales, and a growing shift from saloons to Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs) and pickup trucks.
[USA. opens investigation on 580,000 Tesla vehicles that allow gaming while driving]
What awaits us in 2022?
In some cases, it may be more of the same, as shortages continue to leave dealerships with inventory problems and consumers face increasingly high prices.
But buyers will also find many more options if they are looking for an electric vehicle.
These are the themes we hope you will dominate this year:
Continual product shortage
With the arrival of COVID-19, automakers cut production and orders for parts.
But when sales started to pick up, they found they couldn't get all the semiconductors they needed, leading to significant production cuts.
[Tesla must pay $ 137 million to a former black worker who reported racist abuse at one of its factories]
The sector lost about $ 210 billion in revenue in 2021, according to business management consultancy AlixPartners.
Although chip supplies are easing, they are far from returning to normal and the cut in production will be affected well into 2022. Worse still, the industry faces other shortages affecting products such as tires. and interior plastics and seat foams.
Higher prices for new cars
Automakers around the world produced about 8 million fewer vehicles than expected in 2021, due to product shortages.
Even if production recovers, dealers won't be able to replenish inventories until well into 2022, according to JD Power analyst Tyson Jominy.
As a result, buyers must expect limited options - while prices will continue to rise at a record pace.
At the end of 2021, a typical new vehicle cost $ 45,000, about $ 8,000 more than in December 2020
, according to industry data.
The normalization of buying cars online
When the United States went into crisis, the industry discovered a novel idea.
As customers could not go to dealerships, dealers went to them, via the Internet.
Even after the country reopened, more and more customers were buying their cars online, with many dealers scheduled to schedule test drives and then deliver the new vehicles to the buyer's home or office.
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Meanwhile, with showrooms nearly empty, normally impulsive American motorists have begun to order their cars and wait - sometimes for months - to receive them.
Electric vehicles start their way to the first position
They represent a modest fraction of new vehicle sales in the United States, but demand for battery electric vehicles doubled in the first half of 2021 alone. This year could be the "tipping point," says GM's CEO, Mary Barra, with the explosion of the electric vehicle market.
Several factors will play a role, starting with a plethora of new offerings: Analysts forecast the number of long-range models to quadruple this year.
The impact of 'Rebuild Better'
President Joe Biden has placed a lot of emphasis on the auto industry.
In December, the White House announced its most aggressive fuel economy rules, and Biden has said he wants electric vehicles to account for up to 50% of sales in the United States by 2030.
[The Government formally investigates the autopilot system in Tesla cars]
Its infrastructure bill provides funds for a national recharging network.
But other funds, including those aimed at boosting incentives for the sale of electric vehicles, are currently stalled in Congress.
Startups will keep shaking things up
The auto industry was a tight-knit club since WWII, but Tesla proved the code can be cracked.
Now, other start-ups want to share in their success.
Wall Street has rewarded several of the most promising players.
Rivian now has a market capitalization of more than $ 90 billion, more than Ford or GM.
But others, like Byton, Lordstown Motors and Faraday Future, are struggling and could fall in 2022.
Tesla takes a little heat
At first glance, 2022 should be a good year for Tesla after setting sales and profit records in 2021. The California-based electric vehicle maker has two new plants, one in Austin, Texas;
and the other in Berlin, Germany.
[General Motors plans to sell only electric vehicles by 2035 and will phase out gasoline engines]
But several key products, like the Cybertruck, are far behind, as are Tesla's next-generation batteries.
Tesla is under pressure from the Chinese government and faces further safety tests from US regulators.
Autonomous vehicles could stagnate
Automakers once promised to have a self-driving vehicle ready by 2020. However, 2022 could see some progress.
GM and Mercedes-Benz are preparing to launch the first truly hands-free driving technology - Level 3 in the jargon of the industry - for consumers.
[Elon Musk surpasses Jeff Bezos as the richest person in the world, with a net worth of more than $ 185,000 million]
Others, like Waymo and Cruise, focus on ride-sharing services and freight transportation.
But the safety tests that are being carried out in connection with the Tesla Autopilot serve as a warning about how difficult it is to develop a fully autonomous vehicle.
China is coming
China is the world's largest auto market
, but domestic manufacturers like Geely and Great Wall want to reach beyond their borders.
However, efforts to enter the United States, the world's second largest market, have been repeatedly delayed.
Trade frictions under the Trump Administration have yet to be resolved under Biden.
So while a handful of Chinese-made products are available at American dealerships, including the Buick Envision and Polestar 2, a true car invasion could take years to arrive.
