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Uncertainty on the German labor market is increasing

2022-01-04T12:19:04.965Z


Uncertainty on the German labor market is increasing Created: 01/04/2022Updated: 01/04/2022, 1:14 PM The words "" Agentur für Arbeit "" are written early in the morning at a stop in Stuttgart, while a tram is arriving in the background. © Christoph Schmidt / dpa In 2021, the German labor market defied the pandemic - the number of employees subject to social insurance has even increased. Will th


Uncertainty on the German labor market is increasing

Created: 01/04/2022Updated: 01/04/2022, 1:14 PM

The words "" Agentur für Arbeit "" are written early in the morning at a stop in Stuttgart, while a tram is arriving in the background.

© Christoph Schmidt / dpa

In 2021, the German labor market defied the pandemic - the number of employees subject to social insurance has even increased.

Will that work in 2022?

The uncertainty grows.

Nuremberg - The fear of long-lasting corona restrictions, the threat of quarantine for staff and delivery bottlenecks in industry and crafts cloud the joy of a stable job market at the turn of the year.

The advertisements for short-time work increased significantly in December, said the chairman of the Federal Employment Agency, Detlef Scheele, on Tuesday at the presentation of the December statistics in Nuremberg.

In December there was still reason to cheer among the Nuremberg statisticians - the number of unemployed in Germany rose by 12,000 compared to November to 2.330 million.

The December increase was weaker than usual for the time of year.

It takes place almost exclusively in eastern Germany, where unemployment rose by 11,000 people.

Compared to December 2020, 378,000 fewer people were unemployed nationwide.

Unemployment rate remains stable

The number of employees subject to social security contributions is at a record high of 34.37 million. However, the number of mini-jobs is still well below the pre-crisis level. The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1 percent. For the figures, the Federal Agency used data that was available until December 13th. This means that the job market is much better off than it was after the first year of the pandemic, when the rate was 5.9 percent.

Federal Labor Minister Hubertus Heil (SPD) particularly pointed out the historically low level of youth unemployment. At just under 180,000, the level is lower than ever since reunification. The large number of people in employment is also encouraging. "This success is due to the commitment of companies in Germany, but also to the determined crisis management of the federal government," said the minister. "We were able to secure millions of jobs, especially with the short-time work allowance," emphasized Heil.

Although he believes rising unemployment figures are possible in the next winter weeks, Scheele does not initially expect any slumps in the labor market in the new year, despite the uncertainties. However, the decline in unemployment in 2022 could turn out to be somewhat smaller than forecast - the Institute for Employment Research had assumed that unemployment would fall by 300,000. "We have no evidence that short-time work is not working," he said. However, it must be expected that the costs of combating the consequences of the pandemic on the labor market will be higher than expected.

The initially forecast deficit in the new 2022 budget of around EUR 800 million must already be corrected upwards by EUR 400 million.

A balanced budget will only be possible again in 2023.

With short-time work, however, Scheele expects that the million mark will not be reached again.

In December, companies' demand for short-time work increased again significantly.

From December 1 to December 31, companies - mainly from the hospitality and retail sectors - reported economic short-time work for 300,000 people, said Scheele.

That is twice as many as in the previous month.

As a rule, short-time working is not actually used for every advertisement.

How much short-time work was actually used is available up to October.

In that month, 710,000 people were paid short-time working benefits.

At its peak, the Federal Agency had to pay short-time work benefits for almost six million people in Germany in the first lockdown of the corona pandemic in April 2020.

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“We don't yet know exactly what consequences Omikron will have for the labor market,” said Minister of Labor Heil.

"But we have to assume that there will be an increase in short-time working in the next few months." The extension of the special regulations for short-time working means that the labor market is well positioned for future challenges.

Striking on the labor market: Short-term unemployment of up to one year, regulated in SGB III, has reached a level that is lower than before the pandemic.

In contrast, the number of Hartz IV recipients (SGB II) increased significantly in the course of the past year and is only falling slowly after the lockdown.

The federal agency ruled that the corona effect had shifted to SGB II.

The shortage of skilled workers tarnishes the balance sheet

The number of long-term unemployed reached 977,000 in December. This is below the million mark again, but still almost twice as high as before the crisis.

42 percent of all unemployed in Germany are currently unemployed for more than a year.

On the other hand, the lack of suitable personnel is holding back economic performance.

For employers, dealing with the shortage of skilled workers is the focus of attention.

Employer President Rainer Dulger said it was one of the biggest drag on the German economy.

“Many vacancies cannot be filled and orders cannot be accepted due to a lack of staff,” he emphasized.

Therefore, more foreign skilled workers would have to be brought into the country.

"It must be the task of the new federal government to simplify and accelerate the administrative procedures for a targeted and qualified immigration of skilled workers," said Dulger.

"Otherwise there is a risk that the shortage of skilled workers will put the brakes on innovations and our country's future viability." Dpa

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2022-01-04

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