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COVID-19 infections continue to skyrocket but hospitalizations do not: experts believe that the focus should be placed there

2022-01-05T01:25:11.128Z


Doctors say that the amount of hospital admissions is less alarmist because it tells doctors the severity of the virus and the capacity of hospitals to face the crisis. Others believe that keeping track of cases is still very important.


By Carla K. Johnson -

The Associated Press

The explosive rise in coronavirus cases in the United States has set off alarms, but some experts believe the focus should be on COVID-19 hospitalizations, as these have not risen as rapidly.

Dr. Antony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases and main adviser to the White House in the fight against the coronavirus, told ABC on Sunday that since many infections cause few or no symptoms, "

it is a lot more relevant to focus on hospitalizations

rather than the total number of cases. "

Other experts argue that the case count is still valid.

Natalie Balli, 71, and her twin sister, Linda Calderon, in the background, are seen in their beds in the COVID-19 unit at Providence Holy Cross Medical Center in Los Angeles. Jae C. Hong / AP

As the omicron variant wreaks havoc in the United States, daily new cases of COVID-19 have more than tripled in recent weeks to a record average of 48,000.

Schools, hospitals and airlines have been affected because

many of their infected workers have become isolated.

Last week, hospitalizations averaged 14,800 a day, an increase of 63% from the previous week, but still below the high of 16,500 a day a year ago, when the vast majority of Americans did not. they were vaccinated.

[USA.

exceeds one million cases a day and Biden stresses the importance of getting vaccinated to avoid "dying unnecessarily"]

Deaths have been flat

for the past two weeks, averaging 1,200 per day, well below the all-time high of 3,400 last January.

Public health experts suspect that these figures, taken together, reflect the continued efficacy of the vaccine in preventing serious diseases, even against the omicron variant, as well as

the possibility that it does not make the majority

of people sick as the variants previous.

The most important figure

On Tuesday of last week the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that omicron caused 95% of coronavirus infections in the United States.

This is

another indication of the astonishing speed

with which the variant has spread since it was first detected in South Africa in late November.

Wafaa El-Sadr, director of ICAP, a global health center at Columbia University, said the case count does not appear to be the highest number right now.

People get tested for COVID-19 at an outdoor testing center in Los Angeles, Jan. 4, 2022.Jae C. Hong / AP

Instead, she says, the United States at this stage of the pandemic should "shift our focus, especially in an era of vaccination, to really focus on

, and therefore counting,

preventing disease

, disability, and death. ".

Daily case counts and their ups and downs have been one of the most closely watched barometers during the outbreak, and have been a reliable early warning sign of serious illness and death in previous coronavirus waves.

[A New York teacher is arrested on charges of injecting a COVID-19 vaccine into a minor]

But they have long been considered an imperfect measure, in part because it consists mainly of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, and not the actual number of infections out there, which is almost certainly much higher.

A count with strong variations

The daily case count is also subject to strong variations.

The number of new cases registered this Monday surpassed the unprecedented figure of 1 million;

a figure that may reflect the cases that had yet to be reported by the holiday weekend.

The seven-day moving average

is considered more reliable

.

Now, the value of the daily case count is being questioned like never before.

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On the one hand, the skyrocketing rise reflects, at least in part, a stampede -

induced by the omicron variant

- among many Americans to get tested before Christmas gatherings, as well as new testing requirements in workplaces, restaurants. , theaters and other sites.

Also, the actual number of infections is likely much higher than the case count, because

the results of home tests that Americans use are not added

to the official count.

And also because long waiting lines have deterred many people from going for a test.

[FDA authorizes booster dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for all children 12 years and older]

But, in addition, the number of cases seems to offer a less useful picture of the pandemic amid the spread of omicron, which is causing many infections, but which so far does not seem to be as serious in its effects.

A more objective metric

The case count

has lost relevance

, according to Andrew Noymer, a professor of public health at the University of California, Irvine.

"Hospitalizations are the meeting point," Noymer said.

"It is a more objective measure", although not perfect.

He added: "If I had to choose a metric, I would choose the hospitalization data."

Tracking COVID-19 admissions can tell clinicians the severity of the virus and

the ability of hospitals to cope with the crisis.

Students and school workers require COVID-19 testing before returning to school in Los Angeles

Jan. 4, 202202: 15

This, in turn, can help healthcare leaders determine where equipment and other resources should be moved.

Still, health experts are unwilling to do without case counts.

"

We shouldn't stop looking at the number of cases

," said Eric Topol, head of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, "but it is important to recognize that we are seeing only a fraction of the actual number of cases."

A figure that is still important

Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle, said that for every new infection detected, the United States loses two cases.

But he added that tracking the number of positive test results

remains important

as the omicron variant makes its way into the country.

Mokdad said the number of cases can signal future foci of infection and indicate whether a wave has peaked.

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In addition, according to the expert, the case count will continue to be important for people vulnerable for reasons of age or health, who need to know the spread of the virus in their communities

to be able to make decisions about precautions

.

"Giving up knowing whether cases are going up or down is flying blind. How can we, as a country, not know the epidemic curve of the infection?" Mokdad wondered.

[Israel detects first case of flurone, double flu infection and COVID-19]

If the tests have lost their relevance, he added, it's because

the United States never developed a way to control infections

consistently and reliably.

"It is not acceptable to cover failure by changing the rules," concluded Mokdad.

Source: telemundo

All news articles on 2022-01-05

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