Thierry Vircoulon is coordinator of the Observatory for Southern and Central Africa at IFRI. He publishes, among others,
Democratic South Africa or the Reinvention of a Nation
(Éditions L'Harmattan, 2004).
FIGAROVOX. - Does the death of Desmond Tutu, a figure in the anti-apartheid struggle, mark the end of an era? What is his heritage?
Thierry Vircoulon. -
The death of Desmond Tutu - along with that of Frederik de Klerk (Nobel Peace Prize winner alongside Nelson Mandela in 1993) in November 2021 - marks the disappearance of this generation of icons of the anti-apartheid struggle. There is now, in the demographic structure of South Africa, a whole generation of young people, called the
"born free" .
, who have not known apartheid. This new generation will undoubtedly have a political impact because it has not experienced apartheid and therefore does not see the ANC as their parents saw it. Regarding the legacy of Desmond Tutu, South Africa gave birth to a religious leader whose personal charisma and moral authority gave him a very important role in the transition from apartheid to democracy and the construction of South African peace. As a result, his memory is not about to die out. When we see the proliferation of conflicts and their dead ends in today's world, we say to ourselves that we need 10 Desmond Tutus.
This summer, the incarceration of former President Jacob Zuma sparked riots and looting that escalated into the worst violence since the end of apartheid, killing a total of 337 people. What is the state of post-apartheid South African democracy?
It is a disillusioned democracy.
All signs of disenchantment with the political and economic situation are red.
The abstention increases with each ballot.
It exceeded 50% in local elections in 2021.
The disaffection of the population for the ANC (African National Congress) also increases with each election and the erosion of power is evident because the ANC has been in charge of the country since 1994. However, we do not see the emergence of another alternative political force on the right or on the left. Those who broke with the ANC and tried their luck have so far failed. Julius Malema, former chairman of the ANC Youth League and founder of the Economic Freedom Fighters party, embodies an attempt to challenge the ANC on his left but his party is leveling off in the polls (10% in the last local elections). On the right the Democratic Alliance which represents the electoral alliance of white minorities,Métis and Indian has failed to attract African voters and is retreating to its core electorate. The South African political market is completely blocked. Voters are asking for an alternative but there is not one sufficiently credible as popular support for the ANC is irreparably crumbling. The result of the last local elections reflects this situation: in several metropolises including Johannesburg, neither of the two major parties has a majority and they have had to form fragile coalitions where micro-parties play kingmakers.The result of the last local elections reflects this situation: in several metropolises including Johannesburg, neither of the two major parties has a majority and they have had to form fragile coalitions where micro-parties play kingmakers.The result of the last local elections reflects this situation: in several metropolises including Johannesburg, neither of the two major parties has a majority and they have had to form fragile coalitions where micro-parties play kingmakers.
Read alsoSouth Africa: a court orders the return of Jacob Zuma to prison
Despite the scandals, is Jacob Zuma still popular? Why ?
Jacob Zuma is no longer popular.
The escalation of violence following his imprisonment can be explained by the fact that he still enjoys active support located within the ANC, which is less of his popularity than of almost mafia clientelism.
This violence is also and above all a symptom of the deep discontent in the
townships
faced with a structural socio-economic crisis.
South Africa has experienced an unemployment rate of 25% on average for 20 years and it has just reached 35% in 2021 because the Covid-19 has worsened this socio-economic crisis.
Can we explain, in part, the violence by the ethnic divisions that persist in South African society?
Ethnic divides are a very distant memory for South African society.
Thierry vircoulon
No. Ethnic divides are a very distant memory for South African society. From the end of the 19th century, the country experienced industrialization and the formation of an African proletariat who lived in cities. The de-ethnicization of the South African population under the effect of the process of urbanization and industrialization has been profound and the fight against apartheid has also contributed by forcing Africans to unite against their oppressor. The cantonment of Africans according to their ethnicity was, in fact, the policy pursued by the apartheid regime through the "Bantustans". The current president, Cyril Ramaphosa, is from an ultra-minority ethnic group in the north of the country (the Venda), and not from one of the major ethnic groups in South Africa (Sotho, Zulu and Xhosa).This did not prevent him from having a long political career and coming to power.
In addition to this situation, South Africa is one of the countries most affected by the pandemic, and the GDP has fallen back to the level of 2016. What are the levers to get out of these crises?
Like everywhere else, the pandemic should stop. This accentuated the structural socio-economic crisis mentioned above. The health situation is bad but it is difficult to compare it to other African countries for several reasons. The first is the high urbanization rate of the South African population (around 70%) compared to the continent-wide average (40%). However, the urbanization of the population is very favorable to the spread of the virus. In addition, the South African population was already, before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, a population in very poor health. South Africa, among others, has been severely affected by AIDS. The HIV / AIDS prevalence rate is 18%, which places South Africa in 4th position in the world behind its neighbors (Swaziland,Lesotho and Botswana). If we add diabetes and other diseases, the South African population is very vulnerable to Covid-19. Vaccination is a lever that we can think of to get South Africa out of this crisis. Currently, only 25% of the population has been fully vaccinated. The president wants to speed up the vaccination campaign by opening new centers and calling on the population to be vaccinated. It is also necessary to take into account the fact that, compared to other African countries, their health statistics system works. The national figures regarding the health situation are alarming also because they are captured, unlike many other African countries.the South African population is very vulnerable to Covid-19. Vaccination is a lever that we can think of to get South Africa out of this crisis. Currently, only 25% of the population has been fully vaccinated. The president wants to speed up the vaccination campaign by opening new centers and calling on the population to be vaccinated. It is also necessary to take into account the fact that, compared to other African countries, their health statistics system works. The national figures regarding the health situation are alarming also because they are captured, unlike many other African countries.the South African population is very vulnerable to Covid-19. Vaccination is a lever that we can think of to get South Africa out of this crisis. Currently, only 25% of the population has been fully vaccinated. The president wants to speed up the vaccination campaign by opening new centers and calling on the population to be vaccinated. It is also necessary to take into account the fact that, compared to other African countries, their health statistics system works. The national figures regarding the health situation are alarming also because they are captured, unlike many other African countries.only 25% of the population has been fully vaccinated. The president wants to speed up the vaccination campaign by opening new centers and calling on the population to be vaccinated. It is also necessary to take into account the fact that, compared to other African countries, their health statistics system works. The national figures regarding the health situation are alarming also because they are captured, unlike many other African countries.only 25% of the population has been fully vaccinated. The president wants to speed up the vaccination campaign by opening new centers and calling on the population to be vaccinated. It is also necessary to take into account the fact that, compared to other African countries, their health statistics system works. The national figures regarding the health situation are alarming also because they are captured, unlike many other African countries.The national figures regarding the health situation are alarming also because they are captured, unlike many other African countries.The national figures regarding the health situation are alarming also because they are captured, unlike many other African countries.