Kazakhstan: Why Russia intervenes in the riots - and the role of "Mini-NATO"

Created: 01/07/2022, 6:20 PM

From: Anna-Katharina Ahnefeld

The situation in Kazakhstan is escalating.

At the request of the country, a Russian-led military alliance interferes.

What drives Putin?

Almaty / Moscow - The Kazakh head of state Kassym-Shomart Tokayev only had to call - and Russia rushed to help. Unprecedented unrest has been shaking the country for days, and a real bloodbath is unfolding before the eyes of the world. The fear of further escalations is growing steadily. The balance so far: More than a thousand injured, numerous dead protesters, police officers and soldiers. In view of the violent protests, the Kremlin-led military alliance CSTO intervened at Kazakhstan's request for the first time. But what are the Russian motifs? Who is behind the so-called "Mini-NATO"? And why are the Kazakh people rising up?

It was apparently the last drop that broke the barrel: increased fuel prices.

The spark quickly turned into a conflagration.

The riots turned into sometimes bloody protests against the autocratic government.

The state's answer is violence.

Prime Minister Tokayev declared a state of emergency, let the military crack down on the protests and even gave the order to shoot.

Social networks and the Internet were also temporarily blocked.

The president described the demonstrators as "armed bandits" and "terrorists".

And Vladimir Putin?

The Russian head of state apparently wants to prevent the Moscow-affiliated government in Kazakhstan from being overturned at all costs.

Along with Belarus, the country is considered to be one of Russia's most important allies in the region

Kazakhstan: Why Russia intervenes in the riots - and the role of "Mini-NATO"

"We see the recent events in a friendly country as an externally inspired attempt to forcibly undermine the security and integrity of the state through the use of trained and organized armed formation," said the Kremlin.

The US had rejected reports of possible entanglements.

And so the Russian-led military alliance “Organization of the Collective Security Treaty” (CSTO) has already started a military support mission. With this operation, the alliance is preventing an overthrow in Kazakhstan. After conflicts in Belarus, for example, it is the first time that Moscow has reacted in this way to a precarious situation in an ex-Soviet republic. The alliance spoke of a total of around 2,500 foreign soldiers who were supposed to support the Kazakh security forces. The alliance consists of six former Soviet republics and is regarded as a kind of "mini-NATO", an alternative to the North Atlantic Pact founded in 2002. In addition to Russia and Kazakhstan, the alliance also includes Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, Armenia and Tajikistan.

The picture by the state agency Tass shows Russian CSTO peacekeepers disembarking from one of the nine Russian IL-76 military transport aircraft upon arrival in Kazakhstan. © Russian Defense Ministry / dpa

The former French soldier and defense expert Pascal Ausseur, who now heads the political institute FMES, described the alliance as "a relic of the Warsaw Pact" from the Cold War, according to the Agence France-Presse news agency. The CSTO is a "mini-NATO" in which Russia takes the position of the USA. Ausseur considers the sending of a CSTO troop to Kazakhstan "a possibility to give the impression of an intervention of all Caucasus countries - and not only Russia -". In his opinion, the implicit message from Moscow is: “I am cleaning up my own chaos, I am leading an organization that can provide ground troops. I am in charge here at home, in my own territory ”.

This is crucial, especially with a view to the other trouble spot, Ukraine.

Because nothing would be more inconvenient for Putin than a second situation like the one in Ukraine.

Russia's intervention in Kazakhstan: unprecedented military alliance invasion in the shortest possible time

The fact that the military alliance marched in within hours is unprecedented in history since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Kazakhstan has just celebrated 30 years of independence from Moscow.

Now Tokayev thanks the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization for their help.

According to the German press agency, the political scientist Marat Schibutow, who lives in Almaty, sees the unrest as the result of major economic problems and poverty. "With us not even those who work constantly can make a living," he writes on his blog at Telegram. The anger over the doubling of the price of liquefied petroleum gas, which is used as fuel for cars, only triggered the protests. In view of the high gas prices on the world market, the raw material was sold abroad and a deficit arose in the country. That is why the insurgents were initially supported in many cities. Although prices for consumers have been lowered again, the protests have become politicized.

After Tokayev's cry for help, armored vehicles and uniformed men dominated the scene, as videos on social networks show.

The constitutional order was restored, the head of state announced on Friday.

This military operation is a change of course in the post-Soviet space, believes the Russian political scientist Fyodor Lukyanov.

Under the pretext of a threat to state security from outside, a "precedent" had been set for an invasion.

Kazakhstan: Putin demonstrates his power to the West

From the Russian point of view, it is now apparently permissible to interfere purely for the motivation of maintaining power when the security of a country is at stake, comments Lukjankov. "The Russian leadership has decided not to wait until the flames fully break out, but to act." According to observers, Tokayev is now dependent on Putin. The Kremlin boss has long viewed the resource-rich Kazakhstan as his sphere of influence - and wants to prevent the Russian language from being pushed back or the US military from settling here. The Russian spaceport Baikonur is also located in Kazakhstan. Putin has now demonstrated his power to the West, says Lukyanov, also with a view to his recent demands on NATO to stay away from Russia.because it sees itself threatened by the alliance.

"Here Russia has shown its ability to make quick and unexpected decisions in the military-political sphere and to influence events in parts of the world that are important to them," says Lukjankov.

Meanwhile, there are great concerns in the West that Russia, after helping “dictator” Lukashenko in Belarus, could now expand its influence in Kazakhstan with the support of Tokayev.

However, the Kremlin repeatedly categorically rejects Western fears that Putin wants to rebuild the Soviet Union.