Population forecast 2040: Munich will remain a boom region

Created: 01/08/2022, 09:24 AM

The population projection looks 20 years into the future.

What will Bavaria's population look like in 2040?

Munich - Thomas Gößl and his employees don't need glass balls to look into the future.

The State Office for Statistics bases its forecasts on numbers and probabilities.

Once a year, the statisticians from Franconia look 20 years into the future.

Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann (CSU *) presented these results yesterday in Fürth.

The calculations provide the basis for decisions, "but also the possibility of counteracting developments," emphasized Herrmann.

But what will Bavaria's population look like in 2040?

Bavaria's population will continue to grow: Most people live in Upper Bavaria

Bavaria will grow:

The number of people who live in the Free State will increase in the next 20 years - even if not to the same extent everywhere *.

At the end of 2020, Bavaria had 13.14 million inhabitants.

In 2040 there will be around 13.66 million, that is 518,000 more.

"Bavaria is and will obviously remain very attractive," said the interior minister.

There are no emigration tendencies in any of the seven administrative districts.

Regional differences:

Most people live in Upper Bavaria today, and that will also be the case in 20 years' time.

The 4.7 million inhabitants in 2020 will rise to over five million in 2040. This corresponds to an increase of 6.9 percent.

Munich * is expected to have around 1.61 million inhabitants in 2040 - 122,000 more than today.

But Lower Bavaria (plus 5.3 percent) and Swabia (plus 6.2) will also grow strongly.

While Middle Franconia (plus 2.3) and Upper Palatinate (plus 2.1) rose slightly, everything in Lower Franconia (minus 1.5) and Upper Franconia (minus 3.5) points to a decline.

Population forecast: Not all Bavarian regions benefit from immigration

Immigration as a motor:

Bavaria benefits above all from immigration from abroad, "it accounts for the majority of the population movements," said Herrmann.

If one only considers the natural population movement, i.e. births and deaths, Bavaria would shrink.

"Without immigration," says Herrmann, "Bavaria cannot compensate for the fact that significantly more people die than are born."

Thanks to immigration, Bavaria will continue to grow in the next 20 years.

© Sven Hoppe / dpa

Not all regions benefit equally.

In the past, it was mainly the south and the metropolitan areas that attracted new residents.

However, a look into the past proves that such trends do not have to continue unhindered.

Herrmann: "Our job is not to accept that fatefully."

Take steps:

In western Central Franconia, for example, the prognosis from ten years ago has been reversed.

“At that time, the map still showed an expected decline in population.” The numbers have since developed positively.

Herrmann: "It's about drawing the right conclusions and shaping the future in such a way that it ultimately turns out differently from what is forecast now." (