The huge congestion on Israeli roads cannot be ignored.
If in previous years it was still possible to find "golden hours", in which the movement is conducted in the arteries of the movement at a reasonable pace, they are now gone.
It seems that at any given time, the main roads are congested and congested.
The parking problem is also increasing when the average parking search in major city centers exceeds half an hour, according to a recent study.
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The local infrastructure is collapsing and the vigorous construction work, looks like a temporary plaster on an open fracture.
Another lane from here and another interchange from there fail to release the traffic jam.
The future does not look better, not in the short term, and an attempt to simulate the transport picture at the end of the next decade does not signal relief or a deep solution to these problems.
Scheduled collection
As part of the Prime Minister's Office's smart transportation conference held several months ago, several scenarios arose regarding future transportation and most of the significant ones go through the autonomous vehicle.
The utopian scenario describes a situation in which a fleet of autonomous vehicles, will arrive on demand to develop the customer's home, take him to the object district and from there proceed to the next collection.
We, we will not have to drive or look for parking.
Just order a car according to our needs and get going.
For those who do not enjoy the craft of driving it sounds like a great solution.
An autonomous fleet that works around the clock will also reduce the amount of cars on the roads, it will also reduce pollution, it will also free the sidewalks from the burden of parking. dream. When will all this good happen? According to senior executives from Volkswagen, with whom we spoke, as early as 2025, such a fleet will move in Germany, over a range of about 50 km. Pilot. Perhaps it is time to mention that research on autonomous vehicles has been conducted by major European manufacturers since the mid-1980s. Discussion with those who lead this field today, draw a rather complicated map, on the way to full true autonomy of vehicles. Hence, the solution presented here, which is popular and agreed upon by the industry, is still far from us.
In the meantime in the country, we will have to wait for such a service a little longer (despite statements from such and other local companies). And of course, wait many more years until this solution becomes sufficiently available, comprehensive and meaningful, until the need to use the private car is eliminated. In the meantime, even after the light rail sets off, we may find that we are still with a tombstone of new vehicles that has grown in the hairdresser by the hundreds of thousands every year, plunging the country deep into this decade.
The available, real, immediate solution is the two-wheeled solution.
The sales numbers that broke records this year (expected to cross the 20,000 line for the first time) of these, point in the general direction.
If we take into account the expected congestion charges and other surprises that the legislature will impose on us, whoever wants to move around freely, will have to take the DOG solution into account.
Of course, the tools that will become most common on the road are scooters and the price is relatively affordable, filling the volume.
Some of them will be electric, with the deployment of several significant importers in this direction, and it can be expected that by the end of the decade, the Israeli dog market will cross the 25,000 line per year.
So whoever expects the transportation map of the high-tech nation to look like that of a central and technological city, may find that the direction is actually the opposite.
With the proliferation of small Dogs necessarily, as the only way to deal with the obscure metropolis.
Going back to smallness
And it is quite clear that even in the current decade, the average Israeli will not give up his private car. Despite all of the above, and also in the face of efficient train lines (hopefully) it will take time for us to give up our personal vehicle. The car is a sign of freedom, a status symbol, or just an ancient relic of another era. Giving it up is a matter of culture, habit and understanding that times change and its effectiveness diminishes. These are not processes that take place in one day, certainly not with the Israeli public, which for the most part, is still quite conservative.
What will change quite quickly is the type of cars.
A hint of a future urban car can be obtained from the new Igo X.
In an age of urbanization and urgency, he was slowly forced to move to smaller cars.
It is to be expected that over the next few years electrical technology will be reduced and permeated to lower price levels as well.
The Aigo X shows us such a possible direction (only it is still powered by gasoline).
The dimensions are small, the leisure appearance is maintained, with the right pricing vehicles of this type may be the hits of the next decade with us.
So we expect the cheap little ones to return to the local market.
Of course, the semi-active capability that is already prevalent in many new vehicles will continue to permeate vehicles from lower segments as well.
And here can certainly be in line for the drowsy in the traffic jam.
Semi-autonomous systems already know how to function in a completely reasonable way today.
One can certainly assume that in the next half we will be able to reach a traffic jam on defined sections of road (Ayalon suppose) and let the car crawl there on its own.
Will the legislature allow this?
only time will tell.
On personal and public
In the absence of another effective urban solution, we will continue in the coming years to see personal mobility solutions grow. Public transportation will try to improve the service through services such as Babel Dan and the like. Subject to the approval of the legislature projects will continue to expand their railway lines and capacity. Even plans for cable cars in strategic locations are sitting in drawers waiting for approval. This decade should be the last for such services, as the current utopian scenario of the industry, the one brought up at the beginning of this article, will outweigh the use of these in the future. Meanwhile, companies like Go-To that offer a cross-platform app for personal mobility will continue to offer their wares.
Overseas, the use of pollution-free trucks will increase. Urban electric distribution trucks, for example, which do not require an unusual electric range, can significantly reduce pollution in the city. Trucks for long intercity lines will use fuel cell, the nature of their use being more appropriate to the quantity and manner of deployment of hydrogen stations. Volta, for example, already offers such fully electric distribution trucks in the United States. We would not be in a hurry to determine that the days are coming when we will see such things on the roads and streets of Israel.
In general, statements about the future of electricity have been thrown into the air more easily in recent years. These claim that they will no longer produce internal combustion engines from here and these declare that they will not allow the sale of polluting vehicles from there. But even on this subject, as always, the truth lies more or less in the middle. By 2030 40 percent of all vehicles sold in the world are expected to be electric. Even if Israel exceeds this expectation, it makes sense to assume that no more than half of the vehicles sold here will be fully electric. Apparently, much less. Hence, even Israel's heavy vehicle fleet, not an area that adopts new technology easily, will still rely mostly on polluting engines.
Whoever finds himself in an all-electric vehicle should be preoccupied with managing the electricity network in Israel.
Israel's electricity grid will have to deal not only with the electric vehicles that move here on the roads but also with the standard of living that rises every year and burdens the electricity grid.
The Ministry of Energy's plans for renewable energy and gas use require an investment of tens of billions of shekels on the way to meeting the state's needs in 2030.
Hence, the future development of the network of charging stations in Israel goes hand in hand with the growth of Israel's electricity infrastructure and its becoming smarter and stronger.
And maybe still
Meanwhile, apps like Gribo will pop up and direct Israel's electricity believers on their way to the nearest active charging station.
This is a Wise-like service, which allows you to navigate to charging stations and plan a route according to their condition.
Public transportation will also undergo a makeover.
When it comes to peripheral services.
Already today, Hop-On offers multi-line charging and payment with Beat (by Bank Hapoalim) through the company's app.
In such areas, tangential to transportation, such as digital wallets, we see clear changes in usage habits.
And if we have touched on technology in the field of services, there is no doubt that this is where we will see the fastest and most significant development.
The Israeli market may finally offer Big Data-based services.
For example, Becker is already starting to offer online vehicle history checking services.
It is to be expected that in the future such services will reduce the need for physical inspection in a similar way, similar to various services overseas.
Another thing that the Israeli market has proven, under the auspices of the Corona epidemic, is the very rapid transition to digital car sales.
Both the cow and the calf, showed a clear common desire, and overcame the barriers to closure through online purchases.
Forget for a moment, the new car buying rituals that have dominated here for decades.
Over the next decade, buying a car will become easier and more available, and trade-in options are also expected to align with the new scenario.
Forget for a moment, the new car buying rituals that have dominated here for decades.
Over the next decade, buying a car will become easier and more available, and trade-in options are also expected to align with the new scenario.
Gloomy forecast
With tens of thousands of housing units that are in various stages of planning, only in the bloc, and infrastructure that is already lagging behind, the transportation situation in Israel will only get worse over the next decade.
The promise of autonomy-based transportation, one that would eliminate the need for a private vehicle, is a distant dream.
So even towards 2030 it can be expected that the situation on the roads here will not be better.
On the contrary.
The Israeli market will continue to grow, as soon as the production problems that exist in the world today are solved.
The direction is clear, the percentage of electric cars will go up, the trend of recreational vehicles will be integrated into the need for smaller vehicles.
The hottest category?
There will likely be small stylish recreational vehicles with alternate propulsion.
The one who will benefit from all this is the DOG market.
It is the only effective and available solution at the moment for the traffic jams and parking problem.
His growth will come out of coercion, lack of choice.
If the legislature can encourage the use of DOG vehicles, reduce tax on safety accessories, solve the insurance problem and adopt up-to-date European licensing methods, our roads could look different.
Not in a decade, but tomorrow morning.
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