Washington correspondent
Instead of the strategic realignment vis-à-vis China that Biden wanted at the start of his mandate, the American president is facing a serious diplomatic crisis in Europe, the most dangerous since the end of the Cold War.
At stake are the fate of Ukraine, faced with the threat of a Russian invasion, but also the security of the continent. Faced with Vladimir Putin, American diplomacy faces a dilemma between firmness and accommodation. Between the risk of a military escalation with disastrous consequences and that of a diplomatic retreat that would discredit NATO and American security guarantees, Washington has only limited room for maneuver. Biden, who has ruled out deploying US forces in Ukraine, has promised Putin exceptionally harsh sanctions if he embarks on a military adventure. But American diplomats privately admit that since 2014 these sanctions have prevented neither the annexation of Crimea, and the de facto separation of Donbass,nor Russian cyber attacks or Moscow's attempts to assassinate its opponents abroad.
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A series of talks with Russia are taking place this week.
A bilateral summit between the Americans and the Russians is being held in Geneva on Monday.
It will be followed by an extraordinary meeting of the NATO-Russia Council in Brussels on Wednesday, and the meeting of the Permanent Council of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in Vienna on Thursday.
No concessions
But hopes of reaching an agreement are slim.
"I don't think we are going to see any breakthrough in the coming week,"
admitted US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who mostly hopes to lower immediate tensions on the Ukrainian border, and negotiate more late on substantive issues. The Geneva talks are already shaping up to be very difficult. Neither the US delegation, headed by Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, nor that of Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryablakov, have shown any intention to make concessions.
As Russia continues to consolidate its forces on Ukraine's borders, the divergence from their initial positions does not bode well for a resolution of the crisis, and levels of mistrust appear higher than ever since the collapse of Ukraine. Soviet Union.
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Russia has already made known its demands, and as a prerequisite for the negotiations is the commitment by NATO not to expand further east, and the withdrawal of American troops and weapons deployed in several member countries of the United States. 'alliance.
The United States and NATO say these are unrealistic goals, deliberately put forward by Moscow to distract from the real issues, and divide the allies.
"The Russians want to draw us into a NATO debate rather than focusing on the issue at hand, namely their aggression against Ukraine,
" Blinken said.
We will not allow ourselves to be diverted from this question, because what is happening in Ukraine does not only concern Ukraine, but more broadly is part of a destabilizing, dangerous and often illegal behavior on the part of Moscow, which is trying to stop itself. to build up a sphere of influence by absorbing countries that were once under Soviet rule and preventing them from realizing their democratic aspirations as independent and fully sovereign nations. "
Files behind closed doors
“The idea that Ukraine is the aggressor in this situation is absurd
,” said Blinken.
It is as if the fox said he had to attack the henhouse because its occupants pose a threat. We have seen this kind of intoxication before. "
On Saturday, US officials gave some indication of the topics the United States is prepared to discuss if Russia agrees to abandon its military preparations against Ukraine. The negotiations could focus on reducing possible deployments of offensive missiles in Ukraine and on limiting US and NATO military exercises in eastern Europe.
"As President Biden told President
Putin
, the United States does not intend to deploy offensive weapons in Ukraine,
" said a senior State Department official.
So this is an area where we could come to an agreement if Russia is ready to make a reciprocal commitment. "
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Let us join NATO "
The United States and NATO, on the other hand, categorically refused the veto requested by Moscow on new memberships of the Atlantic Alliance.
"It is not for Russia to decide for other countries with which they can be allied,
" recalled the senior official.
These decisions concern only these countries and the Alliance itself.
In the context of NATO, we are talking about the 'open door'
,
and neither Russia nor any other country will close it. ”
American negotiators hope, however, to be able to discuss certain issues with Russia behind closed doors, at the same time raising concern among some allies that Washington will deal directly with Moscow without informing its partners.
"I would not be at all surprised if the Russian media would report, perhaps even while talks are still ongoing, that the United States has made all kinds of concessions,
" the senior Department official warned. State.
No commitment will be made during these talks, which will be… exploratory in nature.
Everything that is discussed will have to both come back to Washington for consideration and be taken up with partners and allies later in the week. ”
