The US has warned Russia that it will support an uprising in Ukraine if it invades it
The New York Times reported that the Biden administration is trying to make clear to Putin the economic and military price it will charge Russia if it attacks Ukraine ahead of this week's security talks in Europe.
US Chief of Staff to Russian counterpart: Ukraine will become what the former Afghanistan became the Soviet Union
Guy Elster
09/01/2022
Sunday, 09 January 2022, 12:28
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Preparing for a guerrilla war.
Ukrainian forces on the front line in the east of the country, last week (Photo: Reuters)
The United States is threatening to arm itself with an armed uprising against Russia if it invades Ukraine, the New York Times reported yesterday (Saturday), on the eve of talks this week between US, European and Russian representatives on the crisis in Eastern Europe.
Officials in the Biden administration have unveiled for the first time the package of sanctions being formulated by Washington and its European allies, which they say will be implemented within hours if Russia chooses to attack its neighbor once again.
The United States and Europe hope that these potential sanctions will deter Russian President Vladimir Putin, who in turn demands guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO and that the alliance will reduce its presence in Eastern Europe.
In addition to the armament of Ukrainian forces, advisers to the US president told the New York Times that the sanctions would include the disconnection of Russia's largest financial institutions from the world economy, an embargo on American technology necessary for the defense and consumer industries.
Leaking potential punitive measures before imposing them is a rare move, but the United States hopes to clarify to Putin the price that an attack against Ukraine will charge him.
Moscow denies that it has such an intention, despite the deployment of tens of thousands of troops on the borders of the former Soviet republic in recent months.
However, the Kremlin claims that NATO poses a growing threat to Russia, and that the deployment of Allied forces in Ukraine is a "red line" for Moscow.
In the Indian administration they have not yet managed to deter Russia.
Biden and Putin in a conference call last month (Photo: Reuters)
While the Biden administration has said it is willing to discuss all of Russia's security concerns - and the long list it has of its own - Moscow's demands mean dismantling the security establishment built in Europe after the collapse of the Soviet Union 30 years ago. The delegation for talks that will open tomorrow in Geneva will be headed by Foreign Minister Wendy Sherman, a veteran diplomat who negotiated the nuclear deal signed with Iran in 2015.
On Wednesday, talks with Russia will take place in Brussels, expanding to include representatives from all NATO member states. The next day, Ukrainian representatives will also join the talks, for the first time, as part of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Is expected to be significant.
The United States fears that at the end of this week, Russia may declare that its security demands have not been met and justify the failure of the talks as justification for military action.
Moscow did warn today that talks could end quickly and expressed disappointment with the American positions.
"No one should be surprised if Russia creates a provocation or incident to justify military intervention, hoping that by the time the world understands the scam, it will be too late," US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on Friday.
He added that "we were clear with Russia what it would face if it continued on this path, including economic measures not taken before, which would have serious consequences."
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Blinken's warning was recognition of the failure of the Obama administration's response to the annexation of the Crimean peninsula and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine in 2014, in actions that surprised the West.
An internal inquiry conducted by the White House in recent weeks has revealed that although the sanctions imposed at the time severely hurt the Russian economy, they were not firm enough to make Putin reconsider the move.
Russia continues to establish its grip on Crimea, eight years later, and it ignores most of its commitments made in the Minsk agreements.
A senior adviser to Biden has admitted that the recent sanctions imposed on Russia, in response to a widespread cyber attack on US government offices and companies, have done very little to deter Putin.
However, a senior European official said there was still a debate on whether imposing sanctions that would affect ordinary Russian citizens would lead to local outrage against Putin or against the United States and its allies.
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According to the report, in order to highlight the potential damage to Russia, the chairman of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Millie, warned his Russian counterpart Valery Gersimov two weeks ago in a phone call that an invasion of Ukraine could end similar to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Millie did not elaborate on plans to arm such an uprising, but it is expected to include the supply of advanced weapons to rebels, including anti-aircraft stinger missiles
. More territories in eastern Ukraine or to create a land bridge from Russia to the Crimea. NATO members are expected to discuss this week a plan to increase, probably by several thousand, the number of troops stationed in the Baltic and southeastern European countries.
Blinken warned on Friday that if Russia invaded Ukraine, NATO would deploy additional forces to its allies.
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