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Putin coup in Kazakhstan? Why experts doubt - and the situation for Russia is explosive

2022-01-10T11:22:00.033Z


Putin coup in Kazakhstan? Why experts doubt - and the situation for Russia is explosive Created: 01/10/2022, 12:15 PM From: Florian Naumann Vladimir Putin and Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Schomart Tokayev at a meeting in November 2019. © Kremlin Pool / Imago Russia has sent troops to Kazakhstan. But experts see problems for Vladimir Putin above all. One reason: nationalist tendencies in the c


Putin coup in Kazakhstan?

Why experts doubt - and the situation for Russia is explosive

Created: 01/10/2022, 12:15 PM

From: Florian Naumann

Vladimir Putin and Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Schomart Tokayev at a meeting in November 2019. © Kremlin Pool / Imago

Russia has sent troops to Kazakhstan.

But experts see problems for Vladimir Putin above all.

One reason: nationalist tendencies in the country.

Almaty / Munich - Well over 100 dead and almost 6,000 people in custody: The latest official figures on the unrest and the response from the government in Kazakhstan are of concern across Europe. But there is also a more far-reaching power-political issue - at least since Russia sent troops to the country in response to a Kazakh request. Will Vladimir Putin try to take direct control of the Central Asian state? Or to set up a puppet regime closely linked to the Russian state, as it seems to be the request in Belarus?

There is initially no clear answer.

But several experts suspect that the conflict will develop differently.

Not least because of the political situation in Kazakhstan, which is hardly known in Germany.

Because Kazakhstan is a "multinational" state - in which only a minority of a good quarter of the population is of Russian descent after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Some observers already see “nationalistic” tendencies in the unrest - from the direction of the Turkish-speaking majority of the population.

Kazakhstan: Russia without power levers?

"Danger of a Second Afghanistan"

Against this background, Arman Melikyan, former Armenian ambassador to Kazakhstan, did not believe in Russia's efforts to take military control of the country - at least not with success: “If Russia wants to bind Kazakhstan in this way, then I consider this decision to be a good one wrong, ”he explained to the taz

in an interview

at the weekend

. “That will arouse anti-Russian sentiments and lead to anti-Russian actions in the country.” In the event of an attempt, Melikyan even saw “the danger that Kazakhstan will become a second Afghanistan”. Economic dependency is also unlikely, he said - referring to the comparatively good economic situation in Kazakhstan.

Melikyan also pointed out that many young Kazakhs had “been educated in Turkey or at Turkish universities in Kazakhstan and other cities in Central Asia”.

The poor also looked at the plight of the minorities in Kazakhstan.

The political representation of Russian-speaking Christians, for example, under the Kazakh governments, Nazarbayev and Tokayev, is “almost zero”: “National minorities are excluded from political life,” he judged - Armenia is also influenced by Christianity.

That could lead to further emigration of this group.

Many people with Russian or German roots had already left the country after the end of the Soviet Union.

Vladimir Putin and the Kazakhstan mission: concern about "ultra-nationalists"

In the English-language portal

The Moscow Times

, the political scientist Dmitri Trenin suspected that the crisis in Kazakhstan had "caught Putin cold" - and gave an insight into the Kremlin's point of view: Kazakhstan is a difficult partner for the Russian government because of its diverse international relations. However, Russia could not allow an overthrow: Such an overthrow could pave the way "in Moscow's way of thinking" for Kazakh ultra-nationalists or, in the last analysis, even for radical Islamists. "So Tokayev must be saved, just like Belarus' long-term ruler Alexander Lukashenko in the summer of 2020," said Trenin.

The expert judged the move to send troops from the CSTO military alliance as "risky": In Russia, initial surveys showed little approval for the move - at the same time, an expanded military presence could lead to resistance in Kazakhstan, Trenin also warned.

The intervention can be explained with a different calculation: If it succeeds in supporting the ruler Kassym-Shomart Tokayev and steering them on a pro-Russian course, Putin could hope for another close ally.

Stronger economic ties could also be conceivable - if Tokayev plays along for political reasons.

Turkey, China and the EU in the Kazakhstan crisis: many interests - currently hardly any influence

For the time being, other partners of Kazakhstan appear to be on the outside - such as China, which is also promoting its New Silk Road in the Central Asian state. Or Turkey too. Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government announced on Sunday support for those in power in Kazakhstan, including in its role as a member state of the Organization of Turkic States; the group wants to debate the situation on Tuesday (January 11th) - even though Kazakhstan ignored it when it came to asking for help. Erdogan's Foreign Minister Mevlüt Cavusoglu also phoned his Qatari counterpart Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani about Kazakhstan on Sunday, according to the ministry.

Recently, China had also simply praised the crackdown on the Kazakh government. Tokayev has called demonstrators, some of whom are also said to be armed, “terrorists” and “bandits” - and issued an order to shoot. It remains to be seen whether Turkey and China will continue to follow events from the sidelines. What is clear, however, is that the situation is complex. Russia and Turkey, for example, are allowed to have different interests in Kazakhstan; as well as in Ukraine. For example, there had been a dispute between the countries over Turkish drone deliveries to Ukraine.

But Western Europe also maintains cooperation with Kazakhstan: for example via rocket launches at the Baikonur spaceport - or via oil deliveries.

The

Wiener Zeitung

recently reported that Kazakhstan is Austria's largest oil supplier.

Germany recently expressed massive concern about the human rights situation in Kazakhstan - and imposed a stop on arms deliveries.

(

fn

)

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2022-01-10

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