University research found that if the level of social contact among citizens remains at the level of the Christmas and New Year's Day holidays, more than 3 million people will be infected and more than 170,000 people will be seriously ill in the fifth wave of the epidemic caused by Omicron; however, if the level of social contact is reduced to the lowest point of the epidemic , the risk of transmission of the fifth wave of the epidemic will be greatly reduced, when about 1,100 people will be infected, of which about 50 will become seriously ill.
Scholars in charge of the research pointed out that in order to reduce the number of social contacts, the next step should be to "work hard" on work or returning to school. Once the epidemic is not effectively controlled, it is necessary to call on the public to reduce activities during the Lunar New Year.
▼1.7 The first night of the ban on dine-in, citizens buy takeaways▼
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CUHK Research: If the level of social contact is not reduced, the fifth wave of the epidemic will cause more than 3 million people to be recruited
Kwok Kin-an, an assistant professor at the Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine, CUHK, in the Hong Kong and Taiwan program "Millennium", took the infected flight attendant group as an example. Their mother infected at least 7 other people, and the number of infected people decreased from generation to generation. It means that when the number of contacts decreases, the epidemic situation is slightly better than the initial stage.
To reduce the number of daily contacts of citizens to 14, the next step is to reduce the number of people who go out to work or go to school
Regarding the government's tightening of social distancing measures, Guo Jianan pointed out that it was initially estimated that the average daily contact of citizens was 34 people. The social contact caused by the festive atmosphere, such as parties and dinner gatherings, contact at work or returning to school, and contact with family members, should be up to When the number of contacts dropped to 14, it is believed that the first "surgery" is community contact, so it is believed that the current government measures are in the right direction; the second is to reduce the number of people who go out to work or return to school.
Banning dine-in meals in the evening market is difficult to eliminate the risk of cross-family gatherings. If the epidemic situation is not under control, it is necessary to call on the city to reduce Lunar New Year activities
As for family gatherings, he expects that there will be reunion dinner gatherings in the next two weeks. Even if the government bans dine-in meals in the evening market, many people choose to hold cross-family gatherings at home, which will still bring risks; once the epidemic is not effectively controlled , there is a need to appeal to the public to reduce activities during the Lunar New Year.
CUHK Research: If the level of social contact is not reduced, more than 3 million people will be recruited in the fifth wave of the epidemic. Liang Zhuowei said that the authorities should prepare for social restrictions if the third generation of Mochizuki spreads. Vaccine Bubble｜Chen Zhaoshi: Hope to expand the bubble Not only requiring one injection, it will gradually adjust and tighten Omicron｜Kong Fanyi: If more people are diagnosed, the number of gatherings should be tightened and large-scale events should be stopped
