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Ukraine Conflict: What's Really Behind Russia's Latest Demands?

2022-01-10T11:15:46.286Z


Ukraine Conflict: What's Really Behind Russia's Latest Demands? Created: 01/10/2022, 12:07 PM From: Foreign Policy Moscow has long been angry about Ukraine's relations with the West, so why now this sudden urgency? The Ukraine-Russia * conflict is worsening. Before a meeting with representatives of the West, Russia has now issued demands. Behind Russia's activity are developments that have dev


Ukraine Conflict: What's Really Behind Russia's Latest Demands?

Created: 01/10/2022, 12:07 PM

From: Foreign Policy

Moscow has long been angry about Ukraine's relations with the West, so why now this sudden urgency?

  • The Ukraine-Russia * conflict is worsening.

  • Before a meeting with representatives of the West, Russia has now issued demands.

  • Behind Russia's activity are developments that have developed over the years and could now escalate further.

  • This article is available for the first time in German - it was first published by

    Foreign Policy

    magazine on January 5, 2022 .

Moscow - With an estimated 100,000 Russian soldiers positioned uncomfortably close to the Ukrainian border, senior US and European officials will hold a series of meetings with their Russian counterparts next week to stave off an eventual invasion of Ukraine.

At the end of last year, the Kremlin presented draft proposals to US officials, which were also posted online, in which Russia called for a comprehensive set of security guarantees from Europe and NATO: no more eastward expansion of the alliance and guarantees not to send troops or weapons to countries, who joined the bloc after 1997.

Russia also called for mutual restrictions on the stationing of short and medium-range missiles and an increased exchange of information, including through military exercises.

Russia's anger has been smoldering for a long time - why Putin now feels compelled to act

At first glance, not much is new here.

Vladimir Puntins Russia has long been angry about Ukraine's deepening ties with the West and NATO's expansion into what Moscow sees as its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe.

What has changed is the sense of urgency in the Kremlin - and the efforts Moscow is ready to make to meet its demands.

The question is why now?

Experts point to a variety of factors, some decades ago and others much younger, convincing the Kremlin that now is the time to take more forceful action to address the balance of power concerns in Europe and to dispel the increasing cooperation between Ukraine and the West.

"You have to see this as a Ukraine and European security crisis, and there is a lot of overlap between these things," said Olga Oliker, Program Director for Europe and Central Asia at the International Crisis Group.

The "five waves" of NATO expansion

The roots of the current crisis go back to the time after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the accession of several former Eastern bloc states to NATO. In a speech at the end of December, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the West of making false promises about its intentions to expand eastwards. “We were fooled by five waves of NATO expansion to the east. We don't threaten anyone - they came to us, ”he said during his annual press conference at the end of the year.

The reality of what was said about NATO enlargement after the war was over is still hotly debated by historians and officials involved in talks at the time.

The fact is that formal guarantees have never been put into writing, and that in the decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union, more than a dozen countries of the former Eastern Bloc have been accepted into the alliance.

Many of these states still fear Moscow's long shadow.

Russia, still affected by the collapse of the Soviet Union, had little power to change the course of events and the West understood this inaction as acceptance, said Oliker.

Changes in Ukraine

In 2008, at the NATO summit in Bucharest, Romania, further promises were made to one day admit Ukraine and Georgia to the alliance. While this is still a long way off for both countries, it has nonetheless caused deep concern in the Russian government. "They see this as a security threat," said Oliker. "They want buffer countries that are strictly obedient."

Russian concerns about Ukraine's reliability as a protective shield only intensified in 2014 when a popular uprising ousted the country's pro-Russian president and installed a reform-minded government. Russia annexed the Crimea and invaded eastern Ukraine. The 2019 election of President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, a political newcomer who campaigned for a solution to the conflict, raised hopes in the Kremlin. It has been speculated that he might be willing to make concessions that would destroy Ukraine's sovereignty. However, despite initial efforts to resume peace talks, Zelenskyi's stance on Russia has only hardened since he took office, and Ukraine has continued its defense cooperation with NATO members, including the US,Great Britain and Turkey, in depth.

Vladimir Putin (r), President of Russia, is seen in his office in the Bocharov Ruchei residence in Sochi during a bilateral meeting with US President Biden (on the screen) via video call.

© Mikhail Metzel / dpa

"Putin sees developments in Ukraine and realizes that things are not going in his favor," said Andrea Kendall-Taylor, director of the transatlantic security program at the Center for a New American Security.

"If the rationale is that Russia must intervene to regain its influence, then it is better for the Kremlin to act now, before Ukraine's capabilities increase further."

While the Ukrainian armed forces have undergone an extensive series of reforms since 2014, the Russian military has also done so.

After gathering troops and supplies near the Ukrainian border in the spring and autumn of last year, Moscow would be well equipped to launch an attack earlier this year, when the ground is still frozen, making it easier for Russia's tanks.

Joe Biden, the pragmatist

And then there is the international context.

“I think it's probably a combination of Russian potential and a sense of assertiveness that has been brewing in the Kremlin over the past few years.

Coupled with their perception of the USA and a West that is distracted and in crisis, ”said Kendall-Taylor.

During Joe Biden * 's first year of presidency, senior US officials attempted to forge a "stable and predictable" relationship with Moscow, while efforts to focus US resources on competing with China * intensified. Biden does not share his predecessor's apparent affinity for Putin, but is respected by Moscow as an experienced foreign policy actor. "Moscow interprets the US withdrawal from Afghanistan as an example that Biden may oppose a consensus from the political leadership that he is a pragmatist and would seriously consider a compromise," writes Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian armed forces at Think Tank CNA, in an email to

Foreign Policy

.

While the United States has sent billions in military aid to Ukraine and continues to maintain its unwavering support for Ukrainian sovereignty, the country’s fate ultimately means more to Moscow than Washington.

“You [Russian officials] might assume that the US interests at stake are actually relatively small and that the United States will work the hardest possible to reverse any possible escalation.

When the going gets tough, the United States will seek to punish Russia economically.

But Russia is resilient and adaptable and has so far been able to withstand all previous sanctions, ”said Kofman.

Ways to de-escalate tensions

US and European officials believe Russia has not yet made a final decision on what action to take. A series of high-level meetings next week could provide clues as to whether a diplomatic solution is possible. On January 10, US and Russian officials will meet in Geneva to discuss Moscow's demands for security guarantees. Meetings of the NATO-Russia Council and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe follow.

Of the two parts of the security guarantees that Moscow is seeking, the first, which focuses on NATO and Moscow demands to stop any further eastward expansion, will most likely not be fulfilled. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and other representatives of NATO member states have reaffirmed the right of Ukraine to choose how they want to organize their own security arrangements.

But on the broader issue of security in Europe, issues such as arms control, the realignment of troop positions and the limitation of military exercises conducted by both sides could offer opportunities to de-escalate tensions.

"A clear indicator of whether we are heading for conflict or not, or whether diplomacy is plausible, is the extent to which they advance NATO issues compared to the European security and arms control discussions," said Kendall-Taylor.

"If it's all about NATO, then, in my opinion, we are at a dead end, and I'm not sure there will be a diplomatic solution to it."

by Amy Mackinnon

Amy Mackinnon

is a national security and intelligence reporter for Foreign Policy.

Twitter: @ak_mack

This article was first published in English on January 5, 2022 in the magazine “ForeignPolicy.com” - as part of a cooperation, a translation is now also available to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.

* Merkur.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA.

Foreign Policy Logo © ForeignPolicy.com

Source: merkur

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