Antoine Bristielle is director of the Opinion Observatory of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, associate professor of social sciences and researcher at Sciences Po Grenoble.
FIGAROVOX. - The LREM deputy for Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon received multiple projectiles in front of his home, launched by demonstrators against the vaccine pass. Are some of the opponents of vaccines and the vaccine pass radicalizing?
Antoine BRISTIELLE. -
It is necessary to consider the question on several levels. The French are not structurally anti-vaccine, the vaccine coverage against Covid, close to 80% of the population, shows it. However, there is a fairly strong criticism expressed within the population against the various measures taken by the government, which may appear to be infringing on individual freedoms. According to a recent survey by the IFOP, 46% of French people oppose the new law on the vaccination pass. The youngest and those close to the parties located in the electoral margins (rebellious France and the National Rally) are the most reluctant.
However, it is necessary to distinguish these 46% of French people, who oppose the vaccination pass, from the various forms of violence that we have seen recently. As spectacular and shocking as they may be, they only concern a minority of citizens.
Finally, we must take into account the fact that there is also a radicalization - in words this time - on the part of the government and the Head of State, the latter having declared a few days ago that he wanted " piss off the unvaccinated ”.
The latest barometer of political confidence from Cevipof and the Jean-Jaurès Foundation showed that 7 out of 10 French people consider politicians disconnected from reality and serving only their own interests.
Antoine Bristielle
In November 2021, the Jean-Jaurès Foundation warned of the increase in attacks against elected officials and revealed that 60% of French people said they “understood” these acts of violence against politicians. How do you explain it?
This figure shows above all the major disconnection that now exists between a large part of the population and the various political elites. For many French people, politicians appear as a class apart, completely disconnected from the reality of their fellow citizens. The latest barometer of political confidence from Cevipof and the Jean-Jaurès Foundation showed that 7 out of 10 French people consider politicians disconnected from reality and serving only their own interests. But when this feeling persists and the perceived gap between representatives and represented increases, some may be tempted to say that violence is ultimately the only way to deal with this situation.
Only 6 out of 10 French people are currently certain to vote next spring, or 10 points less than in 2017 at the same period.
Antoine Bristielle
How can the presidential campaign be affected?
We have seen a few episodes of violence in this pre-campaign, especially on the sidelines of Eric Zemmour's movements.
Overall, 17% of the population considers it normal that some people use violence to defend their interests [1].
This figure can be alarming, but in the end, these people are still an ultra-minority.
Alongside this minority that can value violence in order to be heard, it is rather a kind of electoral apathy that we see.
Only 6 out of 10 French people are currently certain to vote next spring, ie 10 points less than in 2017 during the same period [2].
Likewise when we ask the French about the emotions they feel when they think of the next presidential election, the first three mentioned are incomprehension, disgust and indifference [3].
Even if this indifference is less spectacular than the few highly publicized episodes of violence, it is nevertheless this which risks really marking the next presidential election.
[1] “Fractures Françaises” survey, Ipsos for the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, 2021.
[2] Electoral survey, Ipsos for the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, 2021.
[3] Barometer of emotions, Viavoice for Le Point and the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, 2021.
