Global growth will slow this year and a worst-case scenario is not excluded under the effect of the Omicron variant, which is spreading like wildfire on all continents, accentuating labor shortages and logistical problems, warned World Bank Tuesday.
The institution has revised its forecast for global GDP growth for 2022 down by 0.2 point, to 4.1%, after 5.5% in 2021, also down 0.2 point compared to the estimate. last June.
Read alsoIn 2022, global growth still subject to the virus
But, according to different hypotheses, "
the simultaneous economic disruption caused by Omicron could further reduce global growth this year, by 0.2 to 0.7 percentage point
," the institution says, which would bring growth to 3, 9% or even 3.4%. In this worst-case scenario, "
most of the shock would be felt in the first quarter of 2022, followed by a notable rebound in the second quarter
," she said.
"
The Covid-19 continues to wreak havoc, in particular among the population of poor countries
," lamented David Malpass, its president during a conference call, stressing that we were witnessing a "
disturbing reversal
" of poverty reduction, improved nutrition and health.
He was also alarmed at the impact on education: "
the proportion of 10-year-old children who cannot read a basic story has increased from 53% to 70% in low- and middle-income countries
" .
Lifetime scar?
"
I am very worried about the permanent scar
" that the pandemic will leave in terms of development, he added.
"
The Omicron variant shows us once again that the pandemic is still among us
," said Ayhan Kose, head of forecasts for the World Bank, in an interview with AFP.
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He underlines that this fourth wave results for the moment less restrictions than the initial wave of 2020. “
And if the wave were to subside soon, the economic impact would be rather benign
”. But "
if the variant were to take hold for a long time, with the number of infections remaining high and putting pressure on health systems, then growth would be weaker
", he notes.
Because in such a scenario, labor shortages would increase, further disrupting global supply chains and fueling inflation.
Faced with galloping inflation, the American central bank (Fed) could suddenly raise rates, which would increase the cost of borrowing for emerging countries, already subject to record debt.
Read also Omicron: the boss of the IMF plans to lower her global growth forecasts
In this context, business and household confidence is likely to erode leading to a slowdown in consumption and trade flows.
For 2022, the World Bank has already revised the growth in the volume of world trade down to 5.8% (-0.5 points) after a rebound of 9.5% last year.
United States and China not spared
Ayhan Kose stresses that vaccination remains the key element.
Because the threat of new, more transmissible or virulent variants will persist until a substantial part of the world's population is vaccinated.
“
The share of the vaccinated population in many economies is expected to exceed 70% by mid-2022, but the prospects for immunization progress remain uncertain in a number of countries
,” especially poor countries, observes World Bank .
Read also The debt of poor countries is widening, warns the boss of the World Bank
At the current rate of vaccination, "
only about a third of the population in low-income countries will have received even a single dose of vaccine by the end of 2023
," she laments. his report. The two leading powers in the world, the United States and China, engines of global growth, are not spared by the slowdown and the threat of Omicron, also notes the World Bank. American growth has thus been revised down sharply for 2022 to 3.7% (-0.5 point) after 5.6% in 2021 (-1.2 point). And, "
stubborn inflation and even faster monetary policy tightening could lead to weaker than expected growth
."
Chinese growth is now estimated at 5.1% (-0.3 point) against 8% (-0.5 point) in 2021. “
The possibility of a marked and prolonged slowdown in the heavily indebted real estate sector - and its potential effects on house prices, consumer spending and local government financing - constitutes a significant downside risk to the outlook
”for the Chinese economy, the Bank concludes.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is due to release its own forecast on January 25.