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Omicron Incidence Prediction︱PolyU: Tai Po, Tuen Mun, 5 high-risk districts will be listed in the next week

2022-01-11T06:33:58.183Z


The new coronavirus variant strain Omicron has entered the community, and cases have also appeared in many districts. The Hong Kong Polytechnic University developed a model based on data on where Omicron cases lived and visited in Hong Kong, vaccination rates and population mobility data


The new coronavirus variant strain Omicron has entered the community, and cases have also appeared in many districts.

The model developed by the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, based on the locations where Omicron cases live and visit, vaccination rates and population movement data in Hong Kong, etc., predicts that in addition to the current North Point, Causeway Bay, Tuen Mun and Tai Po, areas with high risk of transmission in Hong Kong will be affected in the future. Tsuen Wan, Shatin, Kowloon Bay and Yuen Long are expected to be added this week.


The research team suggested that the government should strengthen vaccine and testing resources in these areas, such as reopening Tianhui Road Sports Centre, Yau Oi Sports Centre and the vaccination centres at St. Paul's Hospital.

The team also called on citizens to temporarily reduce non-essential travel in these areas.


▼The family of the owner of East Asia Pharmacy in Tuen Mun was diagnosed▼


Shi Wenzhong, Dean of the Smart City Research Institute of the Poon Leto Charity Foundation of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, said today (11th) that his team has developed the Extended Weighted Kernel Density (E-WKDE) model in 10 years, which has helped to predict the spatial location of new coronary pneumonia in the past two years. morbidity risk, that is, the chance of becoming infected and developing symptoms in a given location.

He pointed out that the model was used to study the risk of transmission in each city in the mainland in the early days, such as predicting the effect of Wuhan's closure to block transmission in other cities.

PolyU History: Omicron has higher risk and transmission capability than Delta

Shi Wenzhong also said that the model was once used to analyze the spread of Omicron in South Africa, explaining that within 30 days after Omicron became the main local epidemic variant virus, the national risk of disease in South Africa was on average 1.59% to 30.21% higher than that of the Delta epidemic, and the gap continued to increase. big.

Therefore, he emphasized that when Omicron is popular in the community, the risk and transmission ability are higher than Delta.

▼Landmark Dior salesperson diagnosed ▼


Cathay Pacific flight attendants and mothers caused 5 chains of transmission in the Omicron group.

(Hong Kong 01 cartography)

PolyU says model prediction accuracy is over 80%

In Hong Kong, the team used government zoning data, and used information such as the location of confirmed cases, daily population movement data, social distancing index and other data to predict high-risk locations for transmission in the coming week.

Shi Wenzhong pointed out that he compared the high-risk places predicted by the model yesterday (10th) with the places that the actual confirmed cases had visited, and found that the accuracy of the model prediction exceeded 80%.

In the coming week, Tsuen Wan, Shatin, Kowloon Bay, Kwun Tong and Yuen Long are at high risk and urged to reduce non-essential travel

According to the model forecast, today's high-risk locations in Hong Kong include Tai Po, Tuen Mun, Kowloon Tong, North Point, Causeway Bay and Happy Valley, while Tsuen Wan, Shatin, Kowloon Bay, Kwun Tong and Yuen Long are expected to be added in the coming week.

As for Hong Kong-wide risk, it is expected to rise from 0.66 today to 0.77 on January 17.

He bluntly said that the development of the epidemic in Hong Kong has become a worrying situation, and suggested that the government should strengthen vaccine and testing resources in high-risk areas.

▼1.9 Residents in Room D, Meixin Building, Tai Po are evacuated and quarantined▼


+8

As for whether the earlier tightening of social distancing measures is effective?

Shi Wenzhong believes that if the measures were not tightened earlier, the average risk of disease in Hong Kong would have risen to 0.78. Therefore, the measures and the reduction of public travel would be effective in slowing down the spread of the virus.

He also emphasized that the current epidemic situation in Hong Kong is still on the rise, and the social distancing measures can only be relaxed after it has turned down.

As for the school suspension measures announced today, he agrees that the risk of transmission can be reduced.

Omicron|Quarantine period of close contacts is reduced, experts say no going out during home surveillance Omicron|North Point Securities Company accumulatively 3 new patients infected with the virus in Mei Foo New Village without vaccination On Sunday, Victoria Park prosecuted an unlicensed sale of Omicron|A salesperson in the Dior menswear department of Landmark was infected with the virus and was infected by a foreign domestic helper in An Ning Garden.

1.10|Hong Weimin's birthday party will add 20 uninvited guests, SOGO salesperson has a source

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2022-01-11

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