In both Belarus and Kazakhstan, citizens have experienced the autocratic rule of a president for nearly 30 years.
Alexander Lukashenko has ruled Belarus since 1994, while Kasim-Zhumart Tokayev was elected president of Kazakhstan only in 2019, but is considered the successor to Nursultan Nazarbayev, who has been in office since 1990 and qualified for his election.
Ostensibly, the public in these two regimes should vomit and condemn autocracy and strive as much as possible towards democracy.
These two countries have experienced civil protests against the background of the desire for political change, but one has succeeded and the other is doomed.
Erika Chanav, who has been investigating civil protests against autocratic rule for two consecutive decades, has come to the conclusion that violent civil protest is ineffective and will not achieve the desired change.
Moreover, in her view, a civil protest that combines women and youth is an effective civil protest that more and more sections of the public will want to join because naturally such protests are perceived as non-violent protests.
On the other hand, protests without women or children are perceived as violent protests, so the public will not be swept away by them and they will quickly fade away without achieving the goals.
An example of such non-violent protest was in Belarus.
"Love is stronger than fear" was the motto of Maria Kolesnikova, one of the prominent figures in the Belarusian presidential campaign a year and a half ago, in which Lukashenko's unwavering rule was challenged.
Her way and non-violent protest before and after the election mobilized the public to identify with the opposition to power, and they cracked Lukashenko's grip on Belarus.
They are also the ones who will lead to his downfall in the coming years.
On the other hand, the protest in Kazakhstan and the speed with which it escalated into violence could lead in the long run to the opposite result.
The protest, which began as a protest against the cost of living and not a political background, very quickly escalated into severe violence by some protesters.
The rising violence on the part of the protesters is perceived by the public with contempt compared to the violence of the regime, which is perceived as regular, and as a tool that allows the public to continue to conduct themselves routinely.
It is the rapid escalation and the way in which violence is perceived that could lead to the establishment of Tokayev's status and rule for many years to come.
On the other hand, the Belarusian protest, with its slogan "love stronger than fear", caused Lukashenko to remain president without a public and in fact without a state.
In its quiet way, the Belarusian protest managed to undermine Lukashenko's rule and even drop the ground beneath his feet.
Belarussian protest leaders have already been sentenced to lengthy prison terms, but there is no doubt that the silent protest has succeeded: if not today then in the coming years it will be the basis for the fall of Lukashenko's autocratic regime.
And within these, one more thing should be noted: Vladimir Putin's intervention in the two protests hints at a difficult election campaign to be held in Russia in 2024, when Putin will try his luck to be elected for the fifth time after changing Russia's constitution and being re-elected after 24 years.
These interventions and the crisis with Ukraine are indicative of his desperate attempt to market himself as an inexhaustible single leader.
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