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How Bad is the Omicron Wave? Traffic light scenarios seep through

2022-01-12T04:46:43.085Z


How Bad is the Omicron Wave? Traffic light scenarios seep through Created: 01/12/2022, 05:39 AM From: Andreas Schmid Mainly responsible for Germany's pandemic policy: Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (l) and Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (both SPD). © Michael Sohn / dpa Omikron will probably increase the corona numbers significantly. The situation is currently largely under control, bu


How Bad is the Omicron Wave?

Traffic light scenarios seep through

Created: 01/12/2022, 05:39 AM

From: Andreas Schmid

Mainly responsible for Germany's pandemic policy: Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (l) and Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (both SPD).

© Michael Sohn / dpa

Omikron will probably increase the corona numbers significantly.

The situation is currently largely under control, but how is the Omikron wave developing?

Berlin - The omicron variant of the coronavirus is significantly more contagious than previous mutations.

That is why infections are currently increasing in Germany.

The health authorities submitted 45,690 new cases within 24 hours, as the Robert Koch Institute announced on Tuesday (January 11).

A week ago it was 30,561 - an increase of 50 percent.

Will the number of infections continue to increase in the future?

Omicron scenarios of the traffic light: incidence from 2000 to 4000?

The Ampel-Coalition is currently dealing with this question. The Corona Expert Council, which includes modelers, advises the Federal Government on this. Apparently, the traffic light around Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) is currently dealing with two possible scenarios. A comparatively harmless "best case" - and a far more threatening "worst case" case. This emerges from the minutes of the conversation, from which

RTL

and

ntv

quote.

In the best case, the incidence remains below 1500 even with Omikron. It is currently 387.9.

The omicron wave would then last four to six weeks, "depending on the height of the peak".

In the worst case, however, there are incidences of 2000 to 4000. There are regional hotspots and a high level of exposure in the intensive care units.

This “worst case” scenario would take two to three weeks, “depending on the height of the peak”.

Omikron: Hospitalization rate at a manageable level

The good news: Omikron is more contagious, but also less dangerous. The course of the disease is usually milder. Means: There are more new cases, but fewer infected people end up in the intensive care unit due to a difficult course. You can see that in other countries such as Portugal and in Germany you also see the so-called hospitalization rate. It shows how many out of 100,000 people have to be hospitalized for Covid-19 within a week. The current average is 3.37 (as of January 11). For comparison: at the beginning of December the hospitalization rate was around 12, at Christmas 2020 it reached the previous record of just under 16.

However, if there are an extremely large number of cases, the hospitalization rate threatens to rise.

Because Omikron is milder, fewer people will then be treated in the intensive care unit in percentage terms.

In absolute numbers, however, the intensive care patients could become a burden for the German health system.

At an incidence of 1500 we would have the same exposure as Delta.

Carsten Watzl, Secretary General of the German Society for Immunology

"We have Omikron better under control than others"

Christine Falk, President of the German Society for Immunology, is meanwhile optimistic: "We have Omikron better under control than others, it is feasible that the numbers do not slip away from us as much as other countries," she told the German Press Agency. How high they will ultimately also depend on the behavior of the population. "We will get incidences of well over 1000 - the national average, regionally also well above," predicts Carsten Watzl, Secretary General of the German Society for Immunology. "The peak could be reached in February."

That is still far too far from spring for the seasonal decline to have a mitigating effect.

"The only advantage of the delayed omicron wave for us is that we have more time for the vaccinations," explained Watzl.

Because even if the vaccination quota is not decisive for the spread - it is for the stress in the clinics. "If Omikron resulted in 70 percent fewer hospital admissions in our country compared to Delta, we would have the same stress again at an incidence of 1500 as with the fourth wave. ”Also exciting:“ Corona vaccine from Germany, which has long been written off, gives great hope.

(as)

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2022-01-12

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