Presidential 2022: three months before the election, a still very weak mobilization of the electorate

A study by the Jean Jaurès Foundation on the electorate, published on January 11 by researchers Antoine Bristielle and Tristan Guerra, underlines that four in ten French people are still not certain of going to vote in the presidential election, which will take place on April 10 and 24 next.

At the same time five years ago, however, they were more than eight in ten to announce their participation (81%).

In addition, among the voters who intend to go to the polls, 45% confide that they are not yet certain of their choice.

While the first round of the presidential election is now less than three months away, this election therefore seems extremely uncertain.

To discover

• Presidential 2022: where are the candidates in the polls?

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This study also underlines that "

", because between the months of October and December 2021, 30% of potential voters considered changing their vote during the presidential election.

However, some electoral bases appear to be more solid than others.

The most loyal voters are those of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (85%), Emmanuel Macron (83%) and Marine Le Pen (78%).

The nomination of the Republican candidate, Valérie Pécresse, however, clarified the horizon on the right.

Read also Presidential 2022: Pécresse says "down the masks" to Macron, the "president-candidate"

The electorate of the left is the one that appears to be the most fragmented, with many candidates to which is now added that of Christiane Taubira, and the possibility of a popular primary.

Examining the electoral defections on the side of the socialist candidate Anne Hidalgo, who is struggling to exceed 3% of voting intentions, political science researchers point out that about a third of her voters (30%) turned to Emmanuel Macron , 22% to Yannick Jadot and 17% to Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

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A giant with feet of clay

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Now officially invested by the Republicans, the candidacy of Valérie Pécresse has also been closely scrutinized by this study.

The authors point out that out of all of his potential new voters, a third (33%) previously preferred Eric Zemmour, and 31% had previously considered voting Emmanuel Macron.

Confirming the relative stability of the electorate of the National Rally, only 12% of the voters of Marine Le Pen would, on the other hand, have turned to the candidate of the Republicans.

Read also On the roads, Marine Le Pen reinstates the duel with Emmanuel Macron

These political science researchers, however, underline a relative porosity between the LREM and LR electorates.

Valérie Pécresse's candidacy could be "

", because half of her potential voters (50%) still believe they can change their minds by April.

A percentage significantly higher than the 36% of undecided voters of the President of the Republic and even the 40% of voters of Eric Zemmour, who still plan to slip another name into the ballot box next April.