Eyal Hakkes
is a political researcher and
author of the book "Economic Bridges" (published by Matar).
Graduate of the Lilies track of the Intelligence Division, where he served as commander and senior political and economic researcher.
Consultant at the strategic consulting firm McKinsey
Eyal Hakkes, the late President Shimon Peres, claims in his book "The New Middle East" that cooperation between countries on various issues should take place "from top to bottom", following multi-state peace agreements. In your new book, "Economy Bridges" (Meter Publishing), you are striving for a better Middle East, in the realistic version. Your goal is not necessarily total peace in the Middle East, but bridges that connect populations and peoples. Not getting to the best Middle East, but better. What exactly are those economic bridges?
"The perception of the economic bridges means we can build ties here and now, even without attending a ceremony on the White House lawns. This is indeed a more realistic perception because many countries around us, such as Saudi Arabia, are unwilling to reach, at least for now, the same change the UAE has recently reached." .
That is, normalization is not the only solution.
"If we insist only on normalization, we will not be able to improve the Israeli economy and other economies in the region - here and now. Since Shimon Peres wrote his book, Israel has strengthened economically, we have become a start-up nation, a gas power. May return to them like a boomerang. "
In the book, you write that NIS 2 billion must be allocated for the realization of economic bridges with Middle Eastern countries. This is not a really common saying at a time when people are begging for work and wages, at a time when we are short of doctors, medicines, trains. Public - such a move will not be accepted.
"It is a lot of money, but two things must be taken into account: in most cases in economic bridges there is a positive return on capital. For example, if we invest in building a joint investment area with Jordan, such as the Jordan Gate, the amount will be deducted from taxes paid by businesses, companies and factories." In the long run, this will improve the Israeli economy.
"Studies conducted after the Avraham agreements estimated that the potential of various free trade initiatives could reach tens of billions of shekels. That is, they will pay for themselves several times over. For example, a project that connects the Gulf to Haifa will definitely make Israel a more important country, "Tens of billions. Beyond that, it is a small portion of the defense budget, which stands at NIS 70-60 billion. An investment of NIS 1 billion in building economic bridges should be measured by the benefit it can bring us - compared to a billion that will be added to the defense budget instead."
But the dignity of security is in place. It is critical to our regional stability and our survival in the region. Not so fast they will give up chunks of it, not even promil.
"Of course we have to maintain our military strength, but the approach I bring, and put in order for the first time in an orderly manner, also contributes to regional stability. Economic bridges with Jordan and Egypt, for example, will also preserve their security arrangements with us. "We are talking about those led by the private sector. Innovation is not something that the government should actively promote, only enable it. The government has a role in providing policy frameworks and lowering barriers."
Trade with the Gulf states has increased sevenfold.
Simulation of the city of Niem // Imaging photo: METenders,
In the context of the things you say, how would you continue to leverage the Abrahamic agreements?
"We talked about Saudi Arabia. One way to promote relations with it is through a speech area - the city of the future. Hundreds of billions of dollars are being poured in there, and Muhammad bin Salman is determined to implement the project, which is geographically close to Israel and has special legal status." "Between 2020 and 2021, trade with the Gulf states has increased sevenfold, and we have not yet reached the desired level. The existing momentum is great and must be continued."
The mantra of Kerry and Blair
In the Palestinian arena, you believe, as Micha Goodman points out in his book "Capture 67," that the perception should change from a politics that tries to change reality, to a politics that merges with it. What does this actually mean?
"Circumstances show that we probably do not expect an agreement in the near future. We have to accept that the political reality does not really change, and even when there are movements that seek an agreement - it feels 'gas in neutral'. But there are steps that can be taken that do not depend on political circumstances."
for example?
"The current Israeli government, as well as the previous one, understood that the number of Palestinian workers in Israel should be increased, because this maintains stability in Judea and Samaria, and this means that the region will not catch fire."
Or you will increase the number of Palestinian workers and incur terrorist attacks and insecurity. Only at the end of 2021 did we experience a wave of terror here with endless terrorist attacks.
"In 2018, we saw an attack in the Barkan industrial area. It was the only attack by a worker who worked in this area during the decades that thousands of Palestinians worked there. Palestinian workers who work in Israel do not tend to carry out attacks in Israel. economic.
"There is a demand for Palestinians to work in Israel because they earn twice as much here, and in relation to Gaza they earn five times as much here. We are at the beginning of a gradual process of Palestinian workers working in high-tech. Terrorist attacks forever, but it is a stabilizing force. "
"There are not many good options in Gaza."
Hamas operatives in the Gaza Strip, Photo: Reuters
Abu Mazen's figures are not really impressive. He believes that the political solution is more important than the economic one.
"There are elements like Abu Mazen who would like to create links between the political solution and economic ties. This is in line with the old conception of the new Middle East - that peace agreements will lead to prosperity. John Kerry and Tony Blair keep repeating this mantra - that there is a political-economic link. "But I believe that these ties must be severed in order to create a better reality. Abu Mazen also understands that he cannot prevent joint economic activity, because one of the anchors of the Palestinian economy is the connection with Israel."
What about what is happening in Gaza? It is naive to think that Hamas will create peace in exchange for economic incentives. The need to use violence outweighs the method of economic bridges you propose.
"The perception that economic incentives in the short term will bring peace in the short term is problematic. In general, when it comes to Gaza - we do not have many good options. "
Back to the perfume road
If we look again at Jordan, how can we increase and expand the Jordanian model and what changes will it produce in the region?
"At the economic level - water, gas, trade - economic cooperation with Jordan is significant for Israel. Before the corona, there were 2,300 permits for Jordanian workers in Israel, and this is expected to continue, probably in view of the high unemployment in Jordan. "Israel understands that Israel is not the devil, that it is possible to have mutual ties that will benefit both parties - not out of love for Zion but out of interest, but it is something that can be clung to for a start."
Whale Reservoir, Photo: IP
You also offer a return to the Spice Road, one of the most important and well-known trade routes in antiquity, from the southern Arabian Peninsula to the shores of the Mediterranean.
"We need to connect with better connections to Jordan and Egypt. There are already plans on Israel Railways to build stations up to the border crossing with Jordan. Similar outlines need to be promoted in relation to the railway infrastructure in Jordan, so that eventually a connection between Israel and the Gulf can be promoted. With Jordan and the Gulf states. "
This is less true of enemy countries - Iran, Lebanon, Syria. But in the book you propose making economic ties with groups and individuals on the Syrian-Lebanese border.
"I call it economic bridges at the micro level. It has certain precedents - for example, in the apple trade that took place in the Golan Heights in the past, in a good neighborhood project that helped Syrian residents affected by the civil war, or the good fence in Lebanon. It may not change reality fundamentally, but it may To create a strip of people who are less hostile to Israel, as was the case in the Good Neighborhood project. "
In the face of Lebanon, you dare to go a little further.
"There is an opportunity around the issue of gas. Because there is controversy over the border, and it is not entirely clear where the border passes in the economic waters between Israel and Lebanon, there are two possible outlines. To Lebanon. In the real outline, if Lebanon finds gas - then it has no way of exporting it today, and then its leading choice will have to be joining the gas forum of the eastern Mediterranean - where Israel, Egypt and Jordan are already members. "To be a game changer against Lebanon. By the way, according to international estimates, in Lebanon there is gas of the magnitude that exists in Israel in the Tamar and Leviathan reservoirs."
In a sense, is it not doing business with Hezbollah?
"A mechanism led by an international body should make sure that the money does not go to Hezbollah. This is feasible because there are very strong American sanctions on Hezbollah and everyone who has financial ties with it. I think many bodies in Lebanon are afraid of these sanctions. These are American sanctions that can ruin whose lives. "That's why they are based on him. That's why the Americans can apply to make sure the money does not go to Hezbollah."
What can such a coalition do to Hezbollah?
"Hezbollah will certainly exist, but it will be a restraining factor for him and his comrades to act against Israel, so as not to materially harm Israel's interests - and as a result their own interests. Can it keep the Third Lebanon War away? "Ginger is very serious."
Looking for water in the city of Mosul, Photo: AP
Trade with Iraq?
What about Iran and Iraq?
"Facing Iran, the ideological component and opposition to Israel are great, so it is impossible to act against it. Iraq is interesting, because in the Enemy Trade Ordinance there are four countries that are defined as Israel's enemy states that must not be traded: Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. .
The issue of water may also constitute a significant regional change.
"This is definitely an issue that could turn into a crisis in the Middle East, both because there are not many freshwater sources in the Middle East, also because the population in Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf states is growing, and also because of geopolitical water resources struggles. Because they understand that it may affect their government.
"Because Israel has managed to overcome this problem through water companies and startups on the subject, it can initiate the regional water forum of the Middle East, which will attract ties with us even countries that do not have diplomatic relations with us. Saudi Arabia, for example. "
In conclusion, does the book have the ability to change the prism of right and left in the State of Israel? If we do not find everything in the issue of peace, which is usually absolute and unequivocal, and we can unite around a common denominator of extensive and fruitful economic bridges - perhaps the Middle East will look different and so will the State of Israel?
"Economic bridges" is an approach that can be supported by most of Israel's population, right and left, and I believe it has the potential to unite the parties. Israel's economic power to strengthen its position. Only until the present book, as mentioned, there was not really an attempt to formulate the concept comprehensively, which will enchant both the right and the left. The economic interest can also reduce the flames around the political issue, They will work together, without colliding with each other. "
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