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Ethiopia in December 2021: An armed conflict has been raging in the country for more than a year
Photo: J Countess / Getty Images
There were two supposedly mild Christmas gestures: On Christmas Eve, the Ethiopian government announced that it would not advance further into the Tigray region in the north of the country.
Last Friday, the Orthodox Christmas in Ethiopia, the next conciliatory signal followed: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered the release and amnesty of several high-ranking prisoners, including leaders of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).
But is Abiy, the Nobel Peace Prize winner turned bitter warlord, actually back on the path to reconciliation?
Could the Ethiopian civil war finally come to an end?
An armed conflict between TPLF-affiliated forces and the central government has been raging in the country for more than a year. The TPLF dominated politics in Ethiopia for decades - until Abiy came to power in 2018. The new prime minister ended a long-running war with neighboring Eritrea and received the Nobel Peace Prize for it. But while he was internationally celebrated for his peace efforts, relations with the TPLF were shattered from the start.
The dispute escalated in November 2020: armed troops attacked a base of the Ethiopian army in Tigray.
Abiy responded with a military strike and an advance to the north of the country.
At his side in the fight against the TPLF: former nemesis and new ally Eritrea.
The country borders Tigray and wants to prevent military strength in the region at all costs.
But the Ethiopian government and its partners have evidently underestimated the Tigray forces.
In June 2021, the army had to withdraw from Tigray.
The rebels then even advanced into neighboring regions and threatened to march on the capital, Addis Ababa.
The TPLF's clout also resulted from a military alliance with other groups fighting against the central government.
But the advance of the rebels has now been halted.
Abiy's army has been able to recapture some lost cities in recent weeks.
»Abiy sees himself in a relatively strong position right now, thinks he's in control again.
He's probably using this momentum to ease the international pressure a bit," says Ethiopia expert William Davison from the International Crisis Group.
Because Abiy's troops - like the other participants in the war - are accused of serious human rights violations.
The Tigray region has been completely cut off again for a month, and urgently needed help is not being let through.
In the capital Addis Ababa and other parts of the country, there have also been ethnically motivated arrests of civilians of Tigray origin – although the government continues to deny this.
The result: Abiy's western partners turn away.
The USA imposed sanctions on the country, and the EU turned off the money supply.
The African Union and the UN have long been trying in vain to reach a ceasefire.
Now that the prime minister is confident of victory, he is doing something to accommodate the international community.
In fact, UN Secretary-General António Guterres promptly called the release of the prisoners for the traditional Christmas celebration a "significant confidence-building step" - and renewed the call for a ceasefire.
The Ethiopian government announced a national dialogue with various hostile groups.
And the TPLF is also sending out conciliatory signals: a commander announced at the end of last year that all units had been ordered to retreat to Tigray.
This change of heart certainly does not come entirely voluntarily.
But is there finally a chance for peace in the region?
Various points still speak against it - including the ongoing blockade of the Tigray.
The TPLF will certainly not accept this in the long run.
"So it could only be a temporary pause in the widespread fighting," fears expert William Davison.
The air strikes by the Ethiopian army are also continuing and have apparently even been intensified in recent days.
According to aid workers on the ground, the latest attacks have claimed dozens of civilian lives.
Gestures of peace look different.
Another problem: The Tigrayan units continued to grow before and during the war - Abiy sees this as an existential threat to his position of power.
Without some kind of disarmament agreement, he is unlikely to agree to a lasting solution.
And then there is Eritrea.
The country obviously has no interest in a peace agreement, preferring to further isolate the region and keep it under control.
Only at the beginning of the week did the TPLF accuse Eritrea of continuing the fighting and thus torpedoing the détente.
"Eritrea's role in this crisis is a key obstacle to peace in the region," said William Davison.
So far, there isn't too much reason to be overly optimistic.
The role of other powers does not make it easier either.
According to media reports, Turkey is supplying arms to Ethiopia, and China sent a clear signal of support with a recent visit.
As in other countries in the Horn of Africa, geostrategic interests are also at stake.
However, the greatest casualty of this conflict remains the civilian population. Thousands have already died and millions of people have had to leave their homes.
Rape and massacre shaped this merciless war.
Tigray is cut off from the outside world, everything is still lacking, a famine can hardly be alleviated.
For the people affected, the current situation certainly does not feel like peace.
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