López Obrador, an optimist with other data

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador visits an area of ​​Chiapas where a Mayan Train station will be built: Cuartoscuro (Cuartoscuro)

That President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is an idealistic man there is no doubt. But in the middle of his government he makes strenuous efforts to go down in history as a filmmaker as well. A quick review of their achievements and expectations for the remainder of the six-year term shows that this is an uncertain battle. In this sense, his Government is counting down a race against time to show that the merits of the six-year term go far beyond good intentions and the fight for just causes. In other words, their optimism is not due to their own data, which others do not share.

First, let's review what was no longer. That is to say, the concrete ones that you will not be able to add to your trophies. First of all, the issue of public insecurity. Despite the ambitious project of the National Guard, the deployment of barracks in the territory and the preponderance of the Army, the violence did not decrease, although it did not continue to grow. Beyond statistics, the expansion of cartels in new criminal activities is evident, in other sectors of the economy and politics. In short, the call for "hugs not bullets" did not work, which the drug traffickers understood as a power vacuum that allowed them to expand.

Neither will the economy. During his inauguration, López Obrador spoke of a growth objective of between 5 and 6% per year in GDP, trusting that the dispersion of resources among the popular sectors would expand the internal market and reactivate the national economy. It is obvious that the pandemic and its aftermath thwarted any possibility of testing that hypothesis. After the collapse of 2020 and the slow recovery observed today, the six-year term will hardly end near the 2% annual average that the previous PRI and PAN governments have.

Public health is another line in which the Government of the Fourth Transformation had enormous expectations; nothing more and nothing less than to establish a free and universal health system, comparable to that of Denmark, in the words of the president. As in the case of the economy, the pandemic ruined any chance that such intentions had any chance of being realized. But even before COVID, it could be seen that this was a tricky target. The commendable attempt to end monopolies and bad practices in the distribution of medicines produced a shortage of regrettable consequences that was never foreseen. Subsequently, the health system as a whole had to be neglected by the pandemic, as it happened in the rest of the world,which ended up undermining any possibility of a substantial improvement in the sector.

If the economy, health and public insecurity, which invariably appear as the issues that most concern citizens, do not register substantial progress during the Government of the Fourth Transformation, it would be necessary to ask ourselves what would then the achievements of the government of workers consist, which there are. They would essentially reside in some tangible successes and others more intangible. Among the former, the improvement of the collection practices of the tax apparatus, one of the worst among the major economies in the world. But perhaps even more remarkable is the government's effort to improve the purchasing power of the popular sectors. And while, as has been said, the pandemic wiped out many of the social and economic effects of public policies,Irreversible impacts have been achieved in terms of minimum wages and subsidies guaranteed by the Constitution for the benefit of unprotected sectors. Also interesting are the efforts to improve the legal framework of union life to seek to shake off the control of the leadership, although in practice it has been half achieved. They are not the only concrete advances that represent specific and sensible benefits, although they may be the most prominent.although perhaps they are the most prominent.although perhaps they are the most prominent.

But, without a doubt, the most important part of the López Obrador government would have to do with the intention of printing a substantial change in the leadership of the country by the political class and the elites. Undoubtedly, the requirement to address social and regional inequality stands out, a problem that could threaten the fabric of Mexican society. Likewise, the fight against corruption and luxury spending in the public administration, which had reached scandalous levels, even by national standards. Perhaps the specific achievements are not necessarily to show off in all these areas, which could be attributable to various factors including the own inadequacies of the morenista movement,but certainly the Government of the 4T has had the merit of changing the narrative of uses and customs of political actors with respect to public patrimony. Modifying symbols and values ​​is a first step, although for practical purposes they remain inventoried within the intangibles.

By any criteria it is evident that the results of the Fourth Transformation are more modest than his own expectations and López Obrador is aware of this, despite the optimism he exhibits in his

. He knows he has hit the wall in terms of public safety, the economy and health. But he still hopes that the ambitious public works projects in the southeast will constitute a key trigger for his government to be considered under a favorable magnifying glass in the field of concrete achievements. Maybe that's where the rush is. On the one hand, there is the Santa Lucía airport, although in this case it is a project that simply served to respond to the harsh criticism it received by suspending the work that had begun in Texcoco. On the other hand, the Dos Bocas refinery, the Transístmico project and the Mayan Train represent the great hope of promoting profound changes.

Of the three, the objective of connecting the Gulf with the Pacific is perhaps the most important, but it will be difficult to see results in several years due to the complexity and diversity of the works involved. The refinery will be finished, but it doesn't look like it will make a substantial difference to Pemex's complex situation. Hence, the apple of the president's eye is the Mayan Train and, consequently, the impatience and sometimes desperate actions of López Obrador to clear the many legal, ecological, social and economic obstacles. Controversial decrees to exempt the train from legal, budgetary or ecological regulations; incessant changes of those responsible for the works; increasing intervention of the army to overcome all obstacles. The Mayan Train has become a mantra in the eyes of the president.In the tangible proof that your Government will be able to generate a project that changes the face of a region and the lives of its inhabitants. In short, he was a realizing president and not just an idealist. We will see.

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