The countdown to Boris Johnson: how many deputies ask for his resignation and how they can throw him out

There is something arcane and mysterious about the internal mechanism for the Conservative Party to get rid of its prime minister, but when it is put into action, it unleashes a political earthquake of the first magnitude.

Boris Johnson is currently in limbo.

So far, only half a dozen conservative deputies have publicly called for their resignation, but no one is able to guess how many more you can do it in the coming days, and if they will be enough to set the impeachment mechanism in motion.

After his half-apologies in the House of Commons, his admission that he was at the Downing Street Forbidden Garden Party on May 20, 2020, and his flimsy excuse that he thought it was a business meeting, he Prime Minister of the United Kingdom has no choice but to grit his teeth and await the outcome of two events over which he has no control. In the first place, the permanent deputy secretary of the Cabinet Office, Sue Gray, a senior official with a reputation for being tough and flawless, must conclude the internal investigation that the Government itself has entrusted to her, and which covers up to half a dozen parties in ministerial offices. . Including the one Johnson attended, and which carries the most danger for his political future. The pressure of the moment will hasten Gray's labors,which should conclude by the end of next week. It is practically impossible for his report to have an exculpatory tone, given the accumulation of airy evidence and, above all, the degree of indignation prevailing among the citizens, the opposition and the Conservative Party deputies themselves. But the nuances that it incorporates, or how far it goes to point out those responsible, will be very important. If you lend some fuel to Johnson's excuse that he thought he was heading to a - clearly informal - meeting of his staff, the prime minister might get some oxygen back. Especially if, at the same time, the heads of some heavyweights of his Downing Street team roll and, more importantly, the Metropolitan Police are satisfied with the findings and decide to drop the case,in line with their rule not to retrospectively investigate violations of social distancing rules. "Sue Gray's report can be very harsh against Johnson, but if the police decide not to use it, and get the majority of the deputies to stay by his side despite all the problems," says Paul Goodman, former parliamentarian and director of the ConservativeHome website

"The Government may end up recovering a certain degree of normality."

The 1922 Committee

For now, that hypothesis sounds overly optimistic for a prime minister who is going through his most delicate crisis since he arrived in Downing Street two years ago, and whom the conservative media in the United Kingdom have practically terminated.

Moods within the Conservative Party are very stirred, but there is still no faction leading the riot - as happened with Theresa May or Margaret Thatcher - nor an alternative rival that is beginning to emerge.

Up to 26

They have publicly called, with greater or lesser intensity, for Johnson's resignation. But the figure, insistently aired in the last hours, carries a certain trap. Of all of them, 20 are deputies of the Autonomous Parliament of Scotland (known as Holyrood, for the palace where it is located). To understand it well, they would come to be something similar to Spanish deputies of the PP in the Basque or Catalan Parliament. Led by Douglas Ross, their current leader, who has been the first to demand the resignation of the prime minister after speaking with him on the phone this Wednesday, they have the urgent need, if they want to get out of the marginalization that inhabits Scottish politics, to put distance between them and a figure like Johnson's, who has a high toxic component in that autonomous territory and has been key to fueling the independence discourse.At the moment of truth, none of these regional deputies could vote in a hypothetical motion of internal censure to overthrow Johnson. Only Ross can do it, because he is also a national parliamentarian.

That is why, in that direction, the statements of Westminster deputies such as William Wragg, Roger Gale, Julian Sturdy or Caroline Nokes are much more relevant. To their own personal anger or disappointment with Johnson, they add the deciding factor for any politician to choose to withdraw their support: “The message I am getting from the voters in my constituency is that they feel disappointed and betrayed, after the immense effort that it involved for them to obey the rules during the pandemic ”, explained Nokes on the ITV television network.

Of all of them, only two have openly admitted that they have already sent a

(whose translation, paradoxically, would be that of a "letter of withdrawal of confidence") to the director of the 1922 Committee, Graham Brady. This body, which was actually founded a year later than its name suggests, groups together conservative deputies called

(literally, those in the rear seats: those who do not hold office in the government structure and are freer to decide your vote). His leadership, according to the statute of the Conservative Party, is able to organize an internal vote of no confidence against the leader and prime minister of the moment. The mechanism is as follows: 15% of the deputies

You must send the committee a letter of withdrawal of trust so that the vote on motion is activated automatically. Currently, with 360 conservative deputies, that amounts to 54 letters. As they arrive, the figure is kept secret. That is why the climate, faced with an internal rebellion, has something mysterious about it. Nobody is able to determine if the accumulated cards do not exceed a handful or are already counted by tens.

In the current situation, many conservative MPs will have chosen to temper their anger and stop any decision, pending the report from Susan Gray. But even if it has some positive aspect for Johnson, it will hardly be able to help the waters return to their course if the irritation of the citizenry continues. The latest YouGov poll, earlier in the week, found that 56% of Brits want Johnson to leave. If the figure of 54 cards is finally reached, the vote could be carried out at breakneck speed. In the case of former Prime Minister Theresa May, the announcement was made on December 12, 2018. The Eurosceptic group tried to bring her down to stop her Brexit negotiation with the EU, too condescending for them. That same day, starting at nine at night,the parliamentary group was voting. 200 MPs backed May; 117 voted against it. In 1990, with somewhat different rules, Margaret Thatcher also survived, 204 votes to 152, an internal challenge. In both cases, the two prime ministers soon after threw in the towel when they saw the strong internal opposition they faced. Despite the fact that, according to the statutes, a new motion of internal censure cannot be held in the following 12 months. That is why many critics of Johnson include in their calculations the possibility that the prime minister could emerge stronger from the coup, because what they clearly rule out is that he resigns of his own free will.Margaret Thatcher also survived, 204 votes to 152, an internal challenge. In both cases, the two prime ministers soon after threw in the towel when they saw the strong internal opposition they faced. Despite the fact that, according to the statutes, a new motion of internal censure cannot be held in the following 12 months. That is why many critics of Johnson include in their calculations the possibility that the prime minister could emerge stronger from the coup, because what they clearly rule out is that he resigns of his own free will.Margaret Thatcher also survived, 204 votes to 152, an internal challenge. In both cases, the two prime ministers soon after threw in the towel when they saw the strong internal opposition they faced. Despite the fact that, according to the statutes, a new motion of internal censure cannot be held in the following 12 months. That is why many critics of Johnson include in their calculations the possibility that the prime minister could emerge stronger from the coup, because what they clearly rule out is that he resigns of his own free will.a new internal motion of censure cannot be held again in the following 12 months. That is why many critics of Johnson include in their calculations the possibility that the prime minister could emerge stronger from the coup, because what they clearly rule out is that he resigns of his own free will.a new internal motion of censure cannot be held again in the following 12 months. That is why many critics of Johnson include in their calculations the possibility that the prime minister could emerge stronger from the coup, because what they clearly rule out is that he resigns of his own free will.

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