The omicron variant of the coronavirus caused an outbreak of cases that began to hit hard in the United States after Thanksgiving and that now touches a million new infections a day, but experts estimate that the wave may have reached its peak and soon It will begin to ease, although even more hospitalizations and deaths are predicted in the coming weeks.
That is the trend that the data from some regions of the country seems to indicate, such as the northwest, where the highest number of cases per omicron was registered, while in other states the wave of infections is just beginning.
Specialists who warn in this regard that it is difficult to determine the course of infections.
"
This virus always leaves us baffled
," Dr. Shira Doron, an epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center, told GBH News to The New York Times.
The states with the lowest vaccination rates are also more affected by having a higher percentage of the population vulnerable to the virus.
But there are good reasons to consider that
a sudden drop in cases is the most likely scenario
.
On the one hand, it was the trajectory of the variant in South Africa, where it was first detected.
In addition, different expert models show this projection.
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A nurse treats a patient in the COVID-19 ICU at Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center in Lebanon, N.H., on Monday, Jan. 3, 2022.Steven Senne / AP
Analysis models indicate that
the maximum number of infections was already reached
between the first and second week of January and that the decline is now beginning, as anticipated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC, for the acronym in English). last Friday.
The peak was Jan.6, according to researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine.
"
We reached a maximum of 6.2 million infections
," explained the professor of epidemiology and health metrics Ali Mokdad to the newspaper USA Today.
Scientists from the COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas, in Austin, place the peak of infections just a few days apart, between January 9 and 13.
And they agree in any case that that point was reached earlier than expected.
A light of hope
“Ómicron came in and spread so fast that it infected everyone who could be infected.
Also, it was the holidays, so people traveled, which increased the spread, ”Mokdad explained.
As of Monday, reported COVID-19 cases had risen 53% from the previous week, averaging more than 750,000 new infections per day, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
Hospitals also received an average of 27,000 people with the virus each day.
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CDC Director Rochelle Walensky had anticipated that omicron would be like a sharp blow from an ice crusher, impacting deeply and then leaving as fast as it came.
New York is an example of this: cases seem to be declining in the city that became the epicenter of the omicron impact.
"This is
a glimmer of hope for me at a time when we desperately need it
," said Governor Kathy Hochul, announcing the decline in infections Tuesday at a news conference.
Infections have also lessened in other large cities, such as Boston, Philadelphia, and Washington DC, and throughout the region from the Mid-Atlantic to New England, health officials report.
However, the saturation of the hospitals has led the authorities to declare a health emergency in Washington DC, and in Maryland, Delaware, Kansas, Virginia and New Jersey.
The late impact on hospitals
However, projections indicate that the health system will not have a respite anytime soon.
Many patients become seriously ill only two weeks after being infected
, since the most severe symptoms can take time to develop, so a team from the University of Washington estimates that the maximum number of hospitalizations due to the virus will be reached on January 25 with 273,000 infected patients.
The health system in much of the country is close to saturation, aggravated by the lack of workers (who are also infected and must be quarantined), so the federal government announced on Friday the sending of military aid to six states.
The omicron variant causes milder symptoms and vaccination prevents many deaths, so that only seven out of every 1,000 infected people should be hospitalized, according to the expert group's estimate.
With the delta variant, the hospitalization rate in November was 33 out of every 1,000 cases.
But experts have remarked that omicron is more contagious, thus increasing the number of patients.
"A smaller percentage of people get seriously ill, but so many more are infected that it nevertheless ends up becoming large numbers," Jeffrey Shaman, infectious disease modeler and epidemiologist at Columbia's Mailman School of Public Health told USA Today.
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Dr. Anthony Fauci, the main adviser to the White House for the pandemic, anticipated in early January that a saturation in the country's hospitals was expected given the large number of cases, something that has already begun to occur in recent days.
More than a dozen states across the country have reported a record number of hospitalizations for children due to the virus, and some centers have even asked doctors infected with COVID-19 to work if they have mild symptoms.
The situation can be critical for patients with COVID-19 and other illnesses.
"What we've found in previous waves of COVID, during these periods when hospitals are at or above capacity,
patients don't do as well, and they are more likely to die
," said Lauren Ancel Meyers, Director. from the University of Texas Consortium.
The more people are up-to-date with the vaccine, the fewer deaths, hospitalizations and economic disruptions "
Tom Frieden Former CDC Director
The University of Washington scientific model presides that there will be 1,930 deaths per day on January 24.
This number is significantly lower than that reached last winter, when 3,400 people died per day on average from COVID-19 in the country.
At that time, the vaccination campaign was just beginning, hinting at the difference that immunity from injections against the virus can make.
"We know that the more people are up-to-date on their vaccinations, the fewer deaths, fewer hospitalizations and fewer financial disruptions," Tom Frieden, former CDC director and New York City health commissioner, told The Washington Post.