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A study in South Africa suggests that omicron is only 25% less severe than the previous variant

2022-01-14T14:35:01.181Z


The new data suggests that it is not the coronavirus that has radically changed, but humanity, thanks to vaccines and the defenses acquired in previous infections


The omicron variant is not a harmless cold. An exhaustive study of 5,000 patients in South Africa suggests that, all other things being equal, the risk of hospitalization or death with the new version of the coronavirus is only 25% lower than that of the delta, the variant that was dominant until the arrival of omicron. The results, still preliminary, coincide with the first estimates published three weeks ago by Imperial College London. These data suggest that it is not the coronavirus that has radically changed, but humanity, thanks to vaccines and defenses from previous infections. In Spain, almost 100% of those over 70 years of age are vaccinated.

To the doctor Antoni Trilla, head of Epidemiology at the Hospital Clínic de Barcelona, ​​these results fit perfectly with what he sees every day. “In hospitals we see the pandemic of the unvaccinated and the vaccinated. Those vaccinated are proportionally less, with less serious conditions and shorter hospital stays, "he explains. Data from Catalonia show that, since December, only 28 out of every 100,000 vaccinated people between 60 and 69 years of age have been admitted to the ICU. The rate of unvaccinated patients in intensive care is seven times higher in this age group. "Vaccination is the most important factor, for sure," emphasizes Trilla.

The new study from South Africa underlines that, although the percentage of those vaccinated barely reached 40% in December, 70% of citizens already had defenses after being infected in previous waves.

The authors caution that omicron may be slightly less severe than delta, but it is not much different from the virus that emerged from the Chinese city of Wuhan.

"In the absence of immunity, omicron could be as serious as the ancestral variant," warn the researchers, led by epidemiologist Mary-Ann Davies, from the University of Cape Town.

Most patients hospitalized for severe covid are not vaccinated

Ricardo Gómez Huelgas, President of the European Federation of Internal Medicine

Doctor Ricardo Gómez Huelgas, president of the European Federation of Internal Medicine, agrees with the conclusions of his South African colleagues. “Most patients hospitalized for severe covid are not vaccinated. In my environment, between 60% and 70% of those admitted to the ICU are not vaccinated”, highlights the specialist, from the Malaga Hospital Complex. "The data supports the benefit of mass vaccination policies," celebrates Gómez Huelgas.

More than a half-dozen preliminary studies—in animals or in human cells in the lab—suggest that omicron has a reduced ability to infect the lungs, which would explain the apparent 25% reduction in severity compared to the delta variant . The doctor Roby Bhattacharyya, from the Massachusetts General Hospital (USA), however, highlights that "probably omicron is still more serious than other previous variants". Alpha, identified in the UK in late 2020, was 50% less severe than delta, according to various studies.

The latest report from Imperial College showed that up to 40% of omicron infections in the UK could be in people who had already had covid, compared to 8% of those caused by delta.

Bhattacharyya points out that this tremendous capacity to infect people with previous defenses causes a mirage, because these already protected individuals usually have few symptoms.

"The celebrated

milder disease

is actually a tendency to infect people with immunity, who would not be infected at all with the previous variants," settles the American doctor.

Probably omicron is still more serious than other previous variants

Roby Bhattacharyya, physician at Massachusetts General Hospital

A recent analysis of thousands of infections in Southern California shows very positive results. Just 235 of the 52,000 cases of omicron (0.5%) ended up in hospital, compared to 222 admitted among the 17,000 infected by delta (1.3%) at the same time, during the month of December. The hospital stay with omicron was 70% shorter, the risk of ending up in the ICU was 74% lower and the risk of death fell by 91%, according to this preliminary research, published this Tuesday by the team of epidemiologist Sara Tartof , of the Kaiser Permanente private health consortium.

Dr. Roby Bhattacharyya, however, points out several limitations of the California study. Its authors have not taken into account previous infections that are not recorded in the health system, which the researchers of the new South African work have done and those responsible for the Imperial College report have also done. Furthermore, in the California analysis, the median follow-up time was more than 15 days in people with delta, compared with just five days in those with omicron, a large difference that can hide serious outcomes. The doctor recalls that South Africa has registered 30% more deaths than usual during the omicron wave.

Bhattacharyya, also a professor at Harvard University, is pessimistic about the future of this wave. “All the data I've seen suggests that even in people with prior immunity, omicron will, on average, cause more severe illness than the flu. And if so many people got the flu in such a short time, it would put unimaginable pressure on hospitals. We have never seen anything with this speed of spread, ”warns the doctor. “On top of that, there are still too many people with no immunity or compromised immune systems, at increased risk of severe illness, which was already overwhelming our hospitals in the US. Given the dramatic increase in cases, they will get infected even faster.” , he argues. Only 63% of Americans are fully vaccinated.

Omicron is not mild.

Ómicron is not the flu or the common cold

Maria van Kerkhove, WHO technical chief for covid

The American epidemiologist Maria van Kerkhove, technical chief of the World Health Organization (WHO) for covid, repeated it over and over again this Tuesday when giving the current figures for the pandemic, 15 million new confirmed cases and more than 43,000. documented deaths in the last week in the world.

“Omicron is not light.

Ómicron is not the flu or the common cold.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is not yet endemic.

This is not the time to give up,” he proclaimed.

Despite the evidence, in a sector of the population the idea has taken root that ómicron is a fake version of the coronavirus that can even serve as a natural vaccine. This Monday,

The Wall Street Journal

, one of the most influential newspapers in the world, published an opinion piece recommending that the authorities facilitate the rapid dissemination of omicron around the world. The next day, Ethiopian biologist Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of the WHO, was blunt: “Let's be clear. While omicron causes less severe disease than delta, it is still a dangerous virus, especially for people who are not vaccinated."

Virologist Isabel Sola receives the new data with caution. “This study from South Africa and some others agree that the reduction in the intrinsic virulence of omicron could be moderate, which leads us to question whether omicron is the attenuated variant that we would all like to definitively forget about the pandemic”, reflects Sola, from the National Center for Biotechnology, in Madrid. “At the moment, we cannot minimize it and we must continue to vaccinate and take precautions. Unfortunately, there are still serious infections caused by omicron even in young people and with fewer comorbidities”, warns the researcher.

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Source: elparis

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