Boris Johnson and the Tories

The British Conservative Party is one of the most successful formations in European politics.

For almost two centuries it has been a major force in Westminster and has dominated the Downing Street Administration for 66 of the last 100 years.

His achievements are due to two reasons in particular. The first has been its agility in adjusting its program to the

or spirit of the times. When it has suited it, the formation has been that of free trade and then that of protectionism, it has been a party of isolationism and then it has been in favor of war, a party that promoted neoliberalist policies and then interventionist policies, the party that negotiated the entry of the United Kingdom into the EU and that of the leaders who led the Brexit campaign. The ideological flexibility of the

is truly amazing.

The second reason for his enduring presence in British politics is his ability to dismiss unpopular leaders ruthlessly. The

are totally loyal to their top leader until the moment they are not. On the relationship between the leader and the party, its most illustrious statesman, Winston Churchill, wrote: “The loyalties that center on Number One (the leader) are enormous. If he stumbles, you have to support him. If you make mistakes, you have to cover them up. If he falls asleep, he should not be disturbed without reason. And if it is not good, you have to give it a cane and throw it out”.

Prime Minister

, Boris Johnson, is a biographer of Churchill and will understand those words well.

Johnson came to his trade as the epitome of the

's ability to adapt.

Like a chameleon, he has changed his views frequently throughout his career to seduce militants and voters alike.

This ability has taken him to Downing Street and electoral success but it is not a guarantee that he will survive 2022. In recent weeks, he has been heavily punctuated by various scandals, such as the staging of parties at his residence during the most serious phase of the covid pandemic.

If his popularity does not recover, his MPs will mercilessly impeach him, as they have done with his predecessors and as Churchill predicted.

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What Boris Johnson needs to do, but won't do

As a young man, Johnson was an ardent follower of Margaret Thatcher.

He knows that the fall of the iron lady was not due to a vote of the British people but was the result of a plot by the

parliamentary group .

Never mind that she had won three elections with large majorities, held power for more than a decade and changed the course of British politics.

Suddenly, due to a series of mistakes, the prime minister became a liability and her parliamentary group feared that she would lose the next election.

Faced with a choice between loyalty to the leader or saving their seats,

MPs had only one answer.

They decided that she should go.

That same calculation is what the Conservative deputies are now doing. Under the British electoral system, each MP must fight to win the majority of voters in their own constituency. They spend their weekends meeting and listening to voters in their district. And now they know very well that voters are fed up with the corruption and cronyism of the Johnson Administration and, above all, with the parties during a time when many people could not even attend the funerals of their loved ones. The revelations of the last few days are most laughable and the transmission of public anger to Westminster will be swift. Just as the Prime Minister was appearing on television with the message to the British people to "stay home",his staff were throwing a 100-guest party in Downing Street with an email: “Bring your own bottle and snacks!”

MPs

will ask themselves, as they did with Thatcher, whether they are prepared to sacrifice their leader or their seat.

The answer will be the same now as then.

The leader of the

in Scotland is already insisting that Johnson has to resign if the rules have been broken.

If MPs opt for the change it could have consequences both outside and inside the UK.

A new prime minister could take a softer tone in negotiations with the EU and, in particular, abandon London's uncompromising stance on Northern Ireland.

Johnson's downfall could also present an opportunity for the Labor party.

But it won't be easy.

There is no need to call elections until 2024. Without Johnson in charge, many voters could return to supporting the

under a new leader.

And if so, the Conservative Party will continue to dominate British politics in the future as it has done so much in the past.

David Mathieson

was an adviser to the British Government.

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