The political system is preparing for several scenarios following reports that former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the State Attorney's Office are negotiating a plea deal, which has not been denied by the parties.
The first scenario
Negotiations are coming to a standstill, and until next month, the date when Spokesman Avichai Mandelblit will end his term, there will be no signed plea deal.
It is estimated that in such a case, relations in the political system will return to their current course, with Netanyahu serving as the coalition's main glue.
He will certainly explain that he did not sign the deal because he believes in his absolute innocence, and that the trial as conducted so far proves that the prosecution does not have enough evidence to bring him to a conviction in the serious indictment filed against him.
The chance of this scenario is considered high.
MK Sharan Hashakel: "If Netanyahu resigns - Likud entry into the current government is possible" // Photo: Hadera Municipality
The second scenario
Netanyahu will sign the deal, but this time it will be an agreement that will force him to retire from political life.
For most of the coalition, this is not such a bad scenario.
The left-wing parties have longed for Netanyahu's departure from political life due to his high popularity in relation to the other players on the political field, and signing a plea deal will fulfill their desires.
Even the leaders of the right-wing parties in the coalition will not shed a tear if Netanyahu retires from political life.
Some of them, such as Gideon Saar and Avigdor Lieberman, made the removal of Netanyahu their main goal.
However, the one who might pay the price is Naftali Bennett, who could lose the prime minister's chair if Netanyahu is no longer a player on the political field.
The assumption in the political system is that once Netanyahu leaves and the Likud holds internal elections, the next party chairman will work for the formation of a right-wing government in this Knesset, without the need for elections. Blue and white and may also have a future, and form a broad coalition at the expense of the present.
The chances of such a scenario materializing are also quite high.
Spokesman Mandelblit, Photo: Oren Ben Hakon
The third scenario
Another scenario with a high probability is the one in which the various parties, including the future Likud chairman, fail to form a government in this Knesset and go to the polls. This is also bad news for Bennett and the right, but in terms of all other elements. If he does not run, the left-wing bloc will be able to field the Likud, for the first time in more than a decade, a candidate equal in status to the right-wing candidate - something that may be reflected in the election results and lead to a decision in favor of the bloc.
For now, it seems that the chances of forming an alternative government in this Knesset are higher, since Knesset members will not be in a hurry to disperse if there is another alternative.
The fourth scenario
On the other hand, a scenario with a slim chance is that the parties will sign a plea deal in the coming weeks, and Netanyahu will remain a player in the political system.
In such a case, the coalition may become tighter because the main threat to it, Netanyahu, will put the criminal issues behind it and will be free to re-attack the government.
If this scenario materializes, the right-wing pressure on the dissolution of the government will increase, as all those who boycotted Netanyahu due to the indictment against him will have to admit that the fact that no significant punishment was imposed and no disgrace was determined, does not justify dismissing a prime minister.
The ombudsman's agreement to a plea deal, which will allow Netanyahu to remain in the political system without disgrace, is a clear admission that the cases are weak and have no chance of standing the test of the court. , Faint.
The fifth scenario
This scenario, whose chances are close to zero, is that despite Netanyahu's retirement, the current coalition continues on its way, Bennett is completing his days as prime minister, Lapid's rotation is being implemented - and the world as usual.
Unfortunately for Bennett, who was most interested in such a scenario, his chances of materializing are slim to none.
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