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Corona pandemic: has Denmark carried out too many corona tests?

2022-01-16T19:47:46.255Z


Hardly any other country carries out as many corona tests as Denmark. The government has already spent hundreds of millions of euros on this. In the meantime, more and more politicians and experts are wondering whether this was the wrong approach.


Enlarge image

People waiting in front of the Corona test center in Copenhagen's Faelledparken

Photo: Philip Davali / Ritzau Scanpix / IMAGO

The first offer comes before the luggage belts. »Hey!«, two young women call out from behind a small stand and smile happily. "Do you need a covid test?" Anyone who has entered Denmark via Copenhagen Airport in recent months has often been greeted this way, although hardly anyone is likely to have left without a test. But the Danes are generous. Antigen and PCR tests are freely accessible to the public as well as to guests.

Unlike in Germany, a large part of the tests are organized state and regionally, in 445 centers currently created for this purpose.

There is a national website for registering for the PCR test.

Antigen tests can be done without an appointment.

Laboratories have the task of evaluating at least 80 percent of the PCR tests by the following day at the latest, even when there is a high demand.

Antigen test results must be available within 15 minutes, all data is recorded centrally.

Almost 100 million tests in less than two years

The result of this strategy is that Denmark has consistently been among the world leaders in testing since the beginning of the corona pandemic.

Almost 100 million tests have been carried out in the past two years.

In a country that has less than six million inhabitants.

But the ambitious program has its price: in May 2021 alone, at the peak of the third wave, the tests are said to have devoured two billion crowns, the equivalent of almost 270 million euros. In a month. This emerges from documents available to the newspaper Berlingske. Overall, testing has cost the Danish state an estimated over one billion euros so far. A hefty sum even by Nordic standards – was it really worth it?

Testing is one of the most important tools in the fight against the pandemic worldwide. Most of the time it's about whether enough compromises are made. In many countries it is a question of money, in some perhaps also one of will. So far there has only been one rule: if there are many positive tests, more tests should be tested as a matter of urgency. This is what the WHO recommends. But, conversely, can a country test too much? And if so, what would the consequences be? These questions are new.

Christine Stabell Benn is a professor at the University of Southern Denmark and a member of an expert group tasked with advising the government on contact tracing.

Again and again she suggested there to scientifically review the Danish test strategy.

"But it was like talking to a wall," she wrote to SPIEGEL in an email.

“The Department of Health has no interest in questioning the tests.

You just want to keep going.«

What bothers her the most, according to Stabell Benn, is the unproven effect from her point of view.

Then there would be the costs.

"Maybe we'd have more ICU beds today if we'd spent less money on millions of tests." Couldn't people be treated because too much was being tested elsewhere?

The fact that this is being discussed in Denmark today shows how the situation has changed.

A lot is still being tested, but the number of infections is now at a record high here too.

Shortly before Christmas, Denmark even became a superspreader in the worldwide Omikron statistics – Omikron was obviously faster than any test concept.

The situation seemed very different in the autumn, the pandemic had already shrunk to an epidemic.

At that time, Denmark was a pioneer in lifting the Corona regulations.

Politicians supported this step across party lines.

Even science had few objections, chief physicians greeted you with a handshake again, and in the clubs you could dance until sunrise without restrictions.

This strategy should also be secured with the many tests.

Scandinavian openness but well controlled.

A formula that the country also likes to follow on other occasions.

The message of these days was clear: If you get tested, you don’t need a lockdown.

Today there have long been new restrictions, dancing is no longer an option.

At the same time, most of the population is vaccinated, and thousands more boosters are being given every day.

This raises new questions - about easing, but also about which strategies have been useful so far.

In the meantime, liberals, right-wing populists, conservatives, moderates and radical leftists, with rare unity, are considering jointly setting up a committee of inquiry to evaluate the test strategy.

If the tests had any effect, critics said scornfully, it was above all that the Germans quickly closed the borders.

In fact, the two central giant laboratories for PCR tests reported the first omicron cases early on;

ahead of other countries, Denmark consistently sequenced all positive samples.

But was that proof that new dangers were recognized promptly - or that the virus was able to spread happily despite all the tests?

A study by the University of Roskilde recently fueled precisely this dispute.

The scientists' hypothesis was that more tests must have relieved the burden on hospitals.

Ultimately, chains of infection should be broken and infected people isolated.

However, the authors say they found little evidence that this was successful.

Peter Kamp Busk was one of them.

He recently literally tore apart the previous strategy on Danish radio.

His conclusion: "Our research shows that the effect of the mass tests is so small that in practice it does not contribute to containing the epidemic."

Viggo Andreasen sees it differently.

He also does research at the University of Roskilde and is one of the experts who spoke out in favor of the Danish test program early on.

The epidemiologist still stands behind this recommendation.

"Do you know," he replies to the accusations, "how many tests would have been correct?

Because I don't do it.« In reality, according to Andreasen, there simply aren't any options for the often-demanded review of different test strategies.

To explain the chosen path, Andreasen mentally goes back a year and a half.

When he and his colleagues were asked for advice in December 2020, other countries were already on the verge of strict lockdowns lasting weeks.

Measures that Denmark wanted to avert.

"Everyone knew that nobody would stick to it at Christmas." The tests were the alternative.

"We would be in a much worse position today without the tests," agrees his colleague Lone Simonsen, probably the country's best-known epidemiologist.

Three out of four infections were finally discovered through the mass tests.

"The testing helped keep the pandemic under control until we got people vaccinated."

Simonsen believes that there are now many discussions because successful measures often seemed unnecessary afterwards.

"That's the way it is."

Nevertheless, she also believes that the days of the large test centers will soon come to an end.

In the omicron wave, it is actually hardly possible to trace infections.

The numbers are too high.

At the same time, the epidemiologist believes that the end of the current pandemic is also in sight.

Soon the virus will be tracked differently.

"The future of infection tracking probably lies in wastewater," says Simonsen.

Promising trials are already underway in other countries.

And with a high vaccination rate, the corona virus can also be controlled without mass tests, for example with routine tests in hospitals and old people's homes.

"We'll certainly make it in a few weeks."

This contribution is part of the Global Society project

Expand areaWhat is the Global Society project?

Under the title "Global Society", reporters from

Asia, Africa, Latin America and Europe

report on injustices in a globalized world, socio-political challenges and sustainable development.

The reports, analyses, photo series, videos and podcasts appear in a separate section in SPIEGEL's international section.

The project is long-term and is supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF).

A detailed FAQ with questions and answers about the project can be found here.

AreaWhat does the funding look like in concrete terms?open

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) has been supporting the project since 2019 for an initial period of three years with a total of around 2.3 million euros - around 760,000 euros per year.

In 2021, the project was extended by almost three and a half years until spring 2025 under the same conditions.

AreaIs the journalistic content independent of the foundation?open

Yes.

The editorial content is created without the influence of the Gates Foundation.

AreaDo other media also have similar projects?open

Yes.

With the support of the Gates Foundation, major European media outlets such as The Guardian and El País have set up similar sections on their news sites with Global Development and Planeta Futuro respectively.

Did SPIEGEL already have similar projects? open

In recent years, DER SPIEGEL has already implemented two projects with the European Journalism Center (EJC) and the support of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation: the "OverMorgen Expedition" on global sustainability goals and the journalistic refugee project "The New Arrivals" as part of this several award-winning multimedia reports on the topics of migration and flight have been created.

Expand areaWhere can I find all publications on the Global Society?

The pieces can be found at SPIEGEL on the Global Society topic page.

Source: spiegel

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